布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：巴尔金强调数据依赖性 美联储利率决策仍存变数

Group 1 - The discussion within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy is becoming clearer, with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin indicating that any adjustments to rates may be moderate due to limited expected changes in economic activity for the remainder of the year [1][3] - Barkin noted that if the economy continues to show mild fluctuations, the corresponding adjustments to interest rate policy will also be small, emphasizing that decisions will depend on future economic data [3][6] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in the September meeting, leading to in-depth discussions about the policy path for the remaining two meetings of the year [5][8] Group 2 - Barkin's cautious stance reflects the data-dependent principle that Fed policymakers adhere to when making decisions, suggesting a gradual approach to rate adjustments if economic data remains stable [6][8] - The current U.S. economy is at a delicate moment, with a relatively strong labor market showing signs of slowing, and inflation gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target, but still with uncertainties [8] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key economic data, particularly employment and inflation indicators, which will provide critical insights for the Fed's decision-making in September [8]