卓创资讯：市场供过于求态势难改 8月生猪价格弱势运行

Core Viewpoint - In August, the national pig prices experienced a downward trend due to a combination of increased supply from farms and the traditional off-season for consumption. The market is expected to continue facing oversupply in September, with potential downward pressure on prices, necessitating close monitoring of policy implementation [1]. Group 1: August Pig Price Trends - In August, the national average pig price was 13.80 yuan/kg as of August 27, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.15% and a year-on-year decline of 32.16% [2]. - The highest price recorded was 14.27 yuan/kg on August 1, while the lowest was 13.59 yuan/kg on August 27, with a maximum price difference of 0.68 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side saw a high outflow from farms in early August, with larger pigs entering the market, leading to an abundance of supply. However, demand was weak due to high temperatures and the traditional off-season for pork consumption [4]. - As August progressed, smaller pigs (110-120 kg) began to dominate the market, which, due to their shorter turnover and lower costs, further pressured overall market prices downward [4]. - Despite a slight improvement in demand towards the end of August due to school and enterprise stocking, the overall purchasing volume was lower than in previous years, limiting the demand's impact on prices [4]. Group 3: September Price Outlook - In September, the pig supply is expected to increase due to delayed outflows from farms, with some farms possibly accelerating their outflow to avoid excessive supply pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - The demand in early September is anticipated to remain weak, with only a slight improvement expected due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall support for prices is limited [5]. - Policy changes regarding cross-province pig transportation starting September 1, 2025, may have mixed effects on different regions, necessitating ongoing observation of policy impacts on the market [5].