猪价“跌跌不休”，养猪人为何还能赚钱？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices has been observed, with live pig and pork prices dropping for six consecutive weeks, while piglet prices have decreased for 15 weeks. Despite this, pig farming has remained profitable due to lower breeding costs [1][6]. Price Trends - From January to August, live pig prices shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, with a significant year-on-year decline of 31.4% by the second week of August, reaching 14.35 yuan/kg [1][2]. - Pork prices also experienced a decline, falling to 24.93 yuan/kg by the third week of August, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22% [2]. - Piglet prices rose from 32.77 yuan/kg to 39.57 yuan/kg from January to April, but have since dropped to 33.25 yuan/kg by August, marking a year-on-year decline of 25.4% [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The recent drop in pig prices is attributed to a normal correction following a temporary price surge in June, driven by seasonal demand and reduced slaughter volumes [3]. - The supply of live pigs has increased, with a 14.5% year-on-year rise in slaughter volumes from January to June [3]. - Despite some recovery in pork consumption due to seasonal factors, overall demand remains weak, limiting support for pig prices [5]. Cost and Profitability - Breeding costs have decreased, allowing pig farming to remain profitable for 15 consecutive months, although profit margins are expected to narrow starting from the fourth quarter of 2024 [6][7]. - The average profit per head of live pig from January to July was approximately 110 yuan, dropping below 100 yuan in July [7]. Future Outlook - The supply of live pigs is expected to continue growing into the third quarter and early next year, with a potential seasonal increase in demand starting in September [8]. - The government plans to initiate a new round of frozen pork storage by the end of August, which may boost market confidence [8]. - The pig farming industry is anticipated to maintain profitability, but farmers are advised to manage production capacity and risks effectively [8].