人民币兑美元中间价近7.1元大关，美元失势人民币升值动力渐显

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with a notable influence from the US Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [2][3][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of August 28, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1063, marking a new high since November 6, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's recent strength is driven by three main factors: domestic economic performance, a significant decline in the US dollar, and the central bank's intervention to guide the RMB's market value [2]. - The central bank's adjustment of the RMB's midpoint has shifted from a neutral stance to a stronger position, with the deviation from the onshore market price increasing to 400-500 basis points [2]. Group 2: Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies - The US Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish signals regarding potential interest rate cuts have led to a weakening of the US dollar, which in turn supports the appreciation of the RMB [3][5]. - Following the Fed's signals, the US dollar index experienced a significant drop of nearly 1%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [4]. - Market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year have intensified, contributing to the downward pressure on the dollar [3][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent rally in the domestic stock market, reaching a ten-year high, is expected to enhance the RMB's strength as it boosts investor sentiment and increases demand for RMB-denominated assets [9][10]. - The RMB is anticipated to continue fluctuating within a range in the short term, while medium to long-term trends suggest a stable appreciation due to strong domestic economic fundamentals and ongoing internationalization efforts [8][10]. - Factors such as stable economic growth, a favorable trade balance, and increased cross-border capital inflows are expected to provide support for the RMB exchange rate [9][10].