海通发展(603162)：经营ALPHA显著 船队扩张与行业复苏有望同步

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 87 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.14% [1] - The decline in performance is primarily due to a significant drop in dry bulk shipping market rates and increased costs from ship maintenance and environmental upgrades [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expanding capacity and optimizing fleet structure, which is expected to improve performance as the market recovers in the second half of the year [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - In the first half of 2025, the global dry bulk shipping market faced multiple pressures, with key indices (BDI, BCI, BPI, BSI) declining by 30% to 33% year-on-year [2] - The company undertook maintenance and upgrades on 12 vessels during a low market period, leading to increased repair and material costs [2] - The financial burden from increased leasing costs also contributed to the pressure on profit margins [2] Operational Efficiency - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience by selecting high-margin routes and flexible global vessel scheduling, achieving an average TCE of $12,258 per day for its ultra-flexible vessels, which is approximately 33% above the market average [3] - This performance is attributed to the company's deep expertise in vessel management, route allocation, and cost control [3] Capacity Expansion and Fleet Optimization - The company is strategically expanding its capacity by acquiring 12 new vessels during a period of relatively low ship prices, aiming to reach a total dry bulk shipping capacity of 4.84 million deadweight tons [4] - In addition to reinforcing its core ultra-flexible vessel advantage, the company is diversifying into Panamax and Capesize operations and has acquired a heavy-lift multipurpose vessel to enter the high-end equipment and project cargo transport market [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 360 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 1.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.39 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 1.24 yuan [5] - The company's strong operational capabilities and cost advantages, along with synchronized capacity expansion and market recovery, are expected to release higher profit elasticity [5]