关税火花熄灭+楼市“裂痕”拖累 美国木材期货距跌入熊市仅一步之遥

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. lumber futures prices have significantly declined from their peak due to tariff policies and emerging cracks in the housing market, nearing a bear market status [1][2] - Lumber futures prices have dropped nearly 19.5% from a high of approximately $695 per thousand board feet in early August to around $560, just shy of the 20% threshold for a technical bear market [1] - The previous surge in lumber prices was driven by tariffs and optimistic sentiment regarding lower interest rates, but this enthusiasm has waned due to disappointing housing demand data and rising costs for builders [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. housing market is facing structural challenges due to high prices and interest rates, which are suppressing affordability and leading to a decline in builder confidence [2] - New home construction showed a rebound in July, but permit totals fell to a five-year low, indicating a weak future supply pipeline [2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) for August stands at 32, remaining in the "pessimistic zone" for 16 months [2] Group 3 - The challenges in the lumber market are compounded by the ongoing reduction in North American manufacturing capacity and rising raw material costs, leading to concerns on both supply and demand sides [3]