瑞士隆奥：看好新兴市场股票 内地和香港股市料受惠资金流入

Group 1 - The company is currently overweight on emerging market equities, with a positive outlook on both mainland China and Hong Kong markets, although it remains neutral compared to other emerging markets [1] - The investment strategy anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will continue to benefit from capital inflows in the short term, although the sustainability of this trend is uncertain [1] - Recent capital inflows have shifted from short-term hedge fund investments to medium-term deployments, indicating a change in investor sentiment towards the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The company highlights that the ongoing trade war stabilization and a weakening US dollar are contributing to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, which could positively impact the Chinese market, particularly benefiting technology stocks [1] - The company acknowledges the ongoing issue of "involution," which poses significant pressure on consumer-related stocks, while also noting the current sector rotation cycle that favors fundamentally strong sectors [1] - The mainland is undergoing a consumption transformation, with existing real estate market issues requiring time to resolve; a slowdown in economic growth in Q3 could catalyze increased policy measures [1] Group 3 - The company holds a negative view on the US dollar, predicting that interest rate cuts may lead to outflows from the $7 trillion money market fund, with potential inflows into currencies like the euro and yen [1] - It is anticipated that the Chinese yuan will appreciate, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially reaching 7 within the next 12 months [1]