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央行政策摇摆不定,日本债券市场成为海外投资者“价值陷阱”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-28 13:44

Core Insights - The strategy of overseas investors heavily buying Japanese long-term government bonds is facing significant setbacks as the 30-year Japanese bond yield surged to over 3.2%, a historical high [1] - The Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates since January, and persistent inflation is impacting the outlook for long-term bonds, with the Bloomberg long-term Japanese government bond dollar-hedged index down over 7% this year [1] - International investors had previously invested a record 9.3 trillion yen in Japanese bonds in the first seven months of the year, but are now facing substantial losses [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese bond market's volatility is affecting global markets, especially after the Bank of Japan's decision to abandon its yield curve control policy, which had previously anchored global borrowing costs [1] - Concerns over ongoing inflation and expanding fiscal deficits have led to synchronized volatility in major bond markets, amplifying global market panic [1] Group 2: Investment Challenges - The investment opportunity identified by Insight Investment's Brendan Murphy in the 30-year Japanese bonds has turned out to be a "value trap," where cheap assets continue to decline in value [2] - Overseas investor purchases of Japanese long-term bonds dropped to 479.5 billion yen in July, the lowest level since January [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rate hikes could resume if domestic demand remains stable, but traders expect the earliest rate increase to be in early 2026, keeping the main policy rate at 0.75%, significantly below the 3.1% annual inflation rate [3] - Demand for two-year Japanese government bonds reached its weakest level in 16 years, indicating investor caution regarding potential rate hikes later this year [3] Group 4: Structural Challenges - The Japanese bond market faces multiple structural challenges, including the impact of an aging population, which has led insurance companies to require fewer long-term bonds to match their liabilities [4] - Net purchases of ultra-long Japanese bonds by trust banks have decreased by approximately 34% compared to the five-year average, and insurance companies are expected to become net sellers of ultra-long bonds for the first time in history [4] Group 5: Potential Opportunities - Despite the setbacks, some investors remain optimistic as Japan has begun to reduce long-term bond issuance, which may help balance supply and demand [5] - Reports indicate that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is consulting with dealers about potentially reducing ultra-long bond issuance again, and new bottom-fishing funds are emerging, planning to purchase unhedged long-term Japanese bonds next month [6] - Murphy maintains his strategy, anticipating that if inflation concerns ease, the 30-year yield could drop to around 2.75%, leading to total returns exceeding 10% for investors entering at current levels [6]