古茗(1364.HK)：营收利润双高增 拓品类强化成长动能

Core Viewpoint - Company reported strong performance in 1H25 with significant growth in GMV, revenue, and net profit, driven by effective strategies and market conditions [1][2][3] Financial Performance - 1H25 GMV reached 14.1 billion yuan, up 34.4% year-on-year, with revenue of 5.663 billion yuan, up 41.2% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.625 billion yuan, up 121.5% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted core profit was 1.136 billion yuan, reflecting a 49% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted core profit margin of 20.1%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][3] Store Expansion and Product Development - As of the end of 1H25, the company operated 11,179 stores, marking a significant milestone in store count [1][3] - The company introduced 16 new coffee products and implemented a new franchise policy to ease financial burdens on franchisees, with over 8,000 stores equipped with coffee machines [2][3] Revenue Structure and Contribution - Revenue from sales of goods and equipment, franchise management services, and direct store sales reached 4.496 billion yuan, 1.159 billion yuan, and 78 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.8%, 39.2%, and 14.0% [2] - The annualized revenue per franchise store from goods and equipment is approximately 804,000 yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year, while franchise management service revenue is about 207,000 yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year [3] Profitability and User Engagement - The company maintained a gross margin of 31.5% in 1H25, with stable sales and management expense ratios [3] - The number of registered users on the company's mini-program reached 178 million, with 50 million active users in the latest quarter, reflecting a 36.9% year-on-year increase [3] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 2.163 billion yuan, 2.517 billion yuan, and 3.058 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to adjusted EPS of 0.91, 1.06, and 1.29 yuan [4] - The target price was adjusted to 34.57 HKD, based on a 30x PE for 2026, considering the company's growth potential and profitability [4]