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华鑫证券-安井食品-603345-公司事件点评报告:成本端拖累盈利,强化新品研发效率

Core Viewpoint - Anjiu Food's 2025 H1 financial results show a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst rising costs and competitive pressures [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for H1 2025 reached 7.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 676 million yuan, a decrease of 16%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 603 million yuan, down 22% [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 4.005 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 281 million yuan, a decrease of 23%, with a non-recurring net profit of 260 million yuan, down 26% [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Q2 2025 gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 18.00%, primarily due to rising costs of raw materials like crayfish and fish paste, along with increased manufacturing expenses and promotional efforts [2]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.96%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 2.66%, mainly due to a decline in share-based payment expenses [2]. - Q2 2025 net profit margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 7.03% [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from frozen prepared foods in Q2 2025 was 1.750 billion yuan, down 1%, while the "lock-fresh" packaging continued to show resilience, maintaining a strong gross margin [2]. - Revenue from frozen dishes increased by 26% to 1.580 billion yuan, while revenue from frozen noodle and rice products decreased by 11% to 583 million yuan, attributed to significant promotional efforts [2]. - The company launched a new line of meat-based sausages targeting the consumer market, with expectations for continued growth in high-margin products [2]. Distribution Channels - Revenue from distribution channels in Q2 2025 was 3.134 billion yuan, an increase of 2%, with growth in key distributor clients [3]. - Direct sales revenue reached 328 million yuan, up 19%, driven by contributions from Zhang Liang Spicy Hot Pot and a recovery in crayfish sales [3]. - Revenue from supermarket channels increased by 8% to 152 million yuan, supported by growth in Walmart's customer base and ongoing efforts to enhance customized cooperation with large supermarkets [3]. - New retail and e-commerce revenue grew by 35% to 391 million yuan [3]. Profitability Outlook - The company is optimistic about its acquisition of Dingwei Thai, which will enhance product and channel synergies. Despite demand pressures, the company has shown resilience compared to the industry [4]. - The establishment of new business units for seafood and frozen baking is expected to optimize resource allocation, with progress in customized supermarket business [4]. - As raw material costs stabilize, profit margins are anticipated to recover. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 4.33, 4.76, and 5.33 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 16, and 14 times [4].