广发证券发布研报称，餐供产业已进入结构性转变关键期，企业正从"被动支持者"向"主动驱动者"转 型。目前行业资本开支已趋于谨慎，行业价格战趋缓，竞争格局优化之下，龙头企业正逐步摒弃过往粗 放式的产能扩张与渠道铺货策略。餐供行业龙头业绩自25Q3呈现好转趋势，表明行业虽未进入高景气 扩张，但已度过最差阶段，当前处于企稳修复过程中，有望逐步实现业绩与估值的双重提振。 广发证券主要观点如下： 供给端：资本开支高峰已过，结构调整机遇显现 餐供产业已进入结构性转变关键期，企业正从"被动支持者"向"主动驱动者"转型。一方面，餐供行业规 模在餐饮业扩容、连锁化率提升及外卖高增的驱动下持续增长；另一方面，过去几年行业在下游餐饮业 景气下行与供给过剩失衡下，加速了行业洗牌。目前行业资本开支已趋于谨慎，行业价格战趋缓，竞争 格局优化之下，龙头企业正逐步摒弃过往粗放式的产能扩张与渠道铺货策略，转向以高效服务大B、精 细化运营中小B为核心，并积极通过产品创新与定制化等方式，实现有质量的高效增长。 需求端：整体与CPI趋势共振，顺周期属性突出 复盘历史，在CPI由负转正或在上行通道的初期，市场对消费复苏的预期往往推动资金流向餐饮供应链 ...

机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，安井食品十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股540.10万股，相比上期减少653.91万股。中庚价值先锋股票（012930）位居第八大流通股 东，持股430.55万股，相比上期减少11.35万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）退出十大流通股东之列。 资料显示，安井食品集团股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市海沧区新阳路2508号,香港湾仔皇后大道东183 号合和中心46楼，成立日期2001年12月24日，上市日期2017年2月22日，公司主营业务涉及安井食品集 团股份有限公司（原名：福建安井食品股份有限公司）是一家主要从事速冻食品的研发、生产和销售的 中国公司。该公司的速冻调制食品主要包括鱼豆腐、鱼丸、撒尿肉丸及烤肠等。速冻菜肴制品主要包括 小龙虾、小酥肉、虾滑、牛肉卷、羊肉卷、蛋饺及酸菜鱼等。速冻面米制品主要包括烧麦、奶香馒头、 手抓饼及红糖发糕等。其他产品主要包括鱼糜、鱼粉及其他鱼类副产品。该公司主要在中国国内和海外 市场开展业务。主营业务收入构成为：速冻调制食品49.43%，速冻菜肴制品31.77%，速冻面米制品 16.32%，农副产品及其 ...

Core Insights - The overall sales performance of offline channels in the food and beverage sector is under pressure for the period of January to December 2025, with notable differentiation in the soft drink industry across various segments [1] - Functional beverages and ready-to-drink juices are maintaining high single-digit growth, while the snack food category shows strong growth in konjac products and healthy snacks [1] Beverage Sector - Beer sales are under pressure with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% in sales for January to December 2025, although average prices continue to rise [2] - Ready-to-drink cocktails have seen a cumulative year-on-year sales decline of 9.9%, while the market share of the brand Rio remains stable [2] - The soft drink industry shows varied performance across segments, with functional beverages experiencing a year-on-year sales increase of 9.3% and ready-to-drink juices seeing an average price increase of 7.8% [2] Dairy Products - The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, although there is a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2025 [2] - Leading dairy companies are performing relatively well in the low-temperature yogurt segment, which is positively impacting overall yogurt performance compared to the broader dairy market [2] Condiments and Snacks - Basic condiments prioritize price, with leading brands continuing to capture market share [3] - The performance of spicy snack foods shows significant differentiation, with konjac products and certain specialty items providing crucial support [3] - Healthy snacks are experiencing notable growth, while the nut and dried fruit category is under pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting December sales [3] - Sweet snacks are generally underperforming, with widespread year-on-year declines [3] Frozen Foods - Hot pot ingredients are showing a trend of volume growth with stable prices, while competition remains fierce in the frozen dumpling and tangyuan markets [3] - By December 2025, the frozen food sector enters a peak stocking phase, with hot pot ingredients, frozen prepared foods, and frozen snacks achieving year-on-year growth, while frozen dumplings and tangyuan continue to face pressure [3] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the A-share market include Anjuke Food, Yanjinpuzi, New Dairy, Ximai Food, Yanjing Beer, Dongpeng Beverage, Yili Group, Qianhe Flavor, and Haitian Flavor [4] - Recommended stocks in the H-share market include Weilong, Gu Ming, Master Kong, Uni-President China, Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beer, Mengniu Dairy, and Qingdao Beer [4]

花旗预测受到新产品及渠道优势驱动，安井食品去年第四季核心业务销售表现将改善，毛利率可能因原 材料价格上升而轻微受压，预期管理层将公布的2026年销售目标不会低于2025年的双位数增长。 花旗发布研报称，将安井食品（603345）(02648)2025至2027年的净利润预测上调1%至14%，目标价从 75.7港元上调至90港元，相当于2026年预测市盈率约18倍，并维持"买入"评级。 ...

花旗发表研究报告，预测受到新产品及渠道优势驱动，安井食品去年第四季核心业务销售表现将改善， 毛利率可能因原材料价格上升而轻微受压，预期管理层将公布的2026年销售目标不会低于2025年的双位 数增长。花旗将安井食品2025至2027年的净利润预测上调1%至14%，目标价从75.7港元上调至90港元， 并维持"买入"评级。 ...

花旗预测受到新产品及渠道优势驱动，安井食品去年第四季核心业务销售表现将改善，毛利率可能因原 材料价格上升而轻微受压，预期管理层将公布的2026年销售目标不会低于2025年的双位数增长。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，将安井食品(02648)2025至2027年的净利润预测上调1%至14%， 目标价从75.7港元上调至90港元，相当于2026年预测市盈率约18倍，并维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply industry is experiencing a gradual easing of competition, with a consensus forming around this trend. The key to significant improvement in the sector in 2026 will depend on demand-side changes, with a prolonged bottoming period expected if demand remains stagnant [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Competition - Recent years have seen a weak recovery in the restaurant sector, leading to increased competition under pressure for market share. However, the marginal benefits from price competition have significantly decreased, and leading companies are advocating for rational competition. The profit margins in the sector rebounded in Q3 2025, indicating this shift [1][3]. - As the peak season approaches in Q4 2025 and January 2026, competition continues to ease, with companies like Anjijia adjusting promotional policies for certain products [1][3]. Group 2: New Growth Opportunities - Leading companies are actively seeking new growth through new products, channels, and markets. Anjijia is focusing on new product development and has adjusted its strategy to embrace supermarket customization, becoming a supplier for major retailers like Walmart and Sam's Club. The company is also planning to enter the halal market, which presents significant potential [2]. - Baoli Foods is enhancing its B2B business by tapping into existing customers and attracting new ones, while also maintaining a steady pace of new product launches in the C-end market [2]. - Babbi Foods has received positive feedback for its new store model, which is performing at 2-3 times the efficiency of traditional takeout stores, indicating potential for exceeding store opening expectations [2]. - Yihai International is expected to maintain robust growth in its B2B and overseas businesses, with a gradual stabilization anticipated for its related parties [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market consensus is optimistic about the easing competition in the industry, with key uncertainties revolving around demand recovery, sustained improvement in market structure, and the potential for new products/channels/markets to generate significant incremental growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is rising, which may restore consumer confidence, and there is anticipation for more domestic demand stimulus policies [3]. - The current low valuation of the sector suggests potential for a "Davis Double," where earnings exceed expectations, leading to a significant price increase [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The restaurant supply sector has passed its worst operational phase, with competition becoming more rational. Leading companies are making strides in new products, channels, and markets. Given the low valuations, the sector is expected to show elasticity, and a positive outlook is maintained. Key investment recommendations include Anjijia Foods, Baoli Foods, Lihai Foods, Babbi Foods, and Yihai International [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Anjuke Food's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.00% and a total market capitalization of 28.73 billion yuan [1] - As of January 13, Anjuke Food's stock price is 86.20 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 347 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.36% [1] - Year-to-date, Anjuke Food's stock has increased by 8.73%, with a 4.19% rise over the last five trading days, an 8.59% increase over the last 20 days, and a 22.83% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2 - Anjuke Food Group Co., Ltd. is based in Xiamen, Fujian Province, and was established on December 24, 2001, with its listing date on February 22, 2017 [2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of frozen foods, including products like fish tofu, fish balls, and various frozen dishes [2] - The revenue composition of Anjuke Food includes 49.43% from frozen prepared foods, 31.77% from frozen dishes, 16.32% from frozen noodle and rice products, and 2.38% from agricultural products and others [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, Anjuke Food had 63,200 shareholders, an increase of 78.56% from the previous period, with an average of 4,641 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 43.98% [3] - For the period from January to September 2025, Anjuke Food achieved a revenue of 11.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.35% to 949 million yuan [3] Group 4 - Anjuke Food has distributed a total of 3.219 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.521 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 5.401 million shares, a decrease of 6.5391 million shares from the previous period [4] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is currently experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory destocking ongoing in Q4. Short-term price recovery is expected due to controlled supply from Moutai, with attention on Spring Festival sales and inventory movement [2][5] - The demand for mass-market products is expected to show marginal improvement, with January anticipated to see a strong start due to delayed Spring Festival stocking [2][5] - The report recommends focusing on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization, particularly in sectors like leisure snacks, restaurant supply chains, condiments, soft drinks, and dairy products [4][26] Summary by Sections Spring Festival Stocking Strategy - The Spring Festival stocking strategy should focus on products with strong seasonal effects and high performance realization. The timing of the Spring Festival can impact the performance of listed companies, especially in years when it falls later in the calendar [4][15] - Products with clear gifting scenarios and positive market sentiment in specific segments are prioritized for opportunity selection. The continuation of the post-Spring Festival market will depend on actual sales and positive Q1 performance feedback [4][26] CPI Trends - The food CPI has been strengthening since December, surpassing service and overall CPI. This trend is supported by supply clearing in certain items and seasonal demand recovery, which together bolster price improvements [32][34] - The CPI-PPI differential remains positive, supporting the continued improvement in profitability for food manufacturing companies [37] Market Performance Review - Since the beginning of 2026, the food and beverage index has increased by 2.21%, lagging behind the CSI 300, which rose by 2.79%. The performance of the liquor sector has remained stable, while the dairy sector has seen declines [6][40] - Soft drinks and leisure snacks have led the market in terms of growth related to Spring Festival stocking, while dairy and meat products have experienced declines [6][40] Industry Dynamics - The industry is increasingly focused on value deepening and structural optimization. Companies are prioritizing supply-demand balance, healthy pricing systems, and profit structure improvements rather than merely pursuing sales growth [7][46] - Food safety and supply chain resilience remain foundational to brand trust, highlighted by recent global recalls and supply chain disruptions [7][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the remaining brands in the sauce liquor sector will thrive, while mass-market products are expected to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival [2][8]. - The dairy sector is showing signs of improvement, with a potential rebound in raw milk prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, which could lead to increased demand for processed dairy products [6]. - The beverage and snack categories are experiencing sustained growth, with specific segments like energy drinks and konjac snacks showing remarkable sales increases despite overall declines in the snack market [6]. - The report highlights a significant shift in the sauce liquor industry, where pricing strategies are becoming more pragmatic, with a new growth level emerging around the 200 yuan price point as lower-tier brands face market exit pressures [6][8]. - The report suggests that leading liquor companies should maintain operational stability during this industry downturn, focusing on balanced investments in base liquor to prepare for future market recovery [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 44,935.30 billion yuan, representing 3.54% of the market [3]. - The circulating market value stands at 43,859.19 billion yuan, accounting for 4.28% of the total market [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 1.3%, with a relative performance decline of 2.2% compared to the benchmark [4]. - Over the past 12 months, the industry has seen a relative performance decline of 25.2% [4]. Sector-Specific Insights - Dairy products are expected to benefit from a favorable pricing environment and improved supply dynamics, with major companies actively preparing for the Spring Festival [6]. - The beverage sector is witnessing growth in specific categories, with leading brands launching targeted marketing campaigns for the holiday season [6]. - The sauce liquor market is undergoing a consolidation phase, with a focus on brand strength and market share recovery among leading companies [6][8].