识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 风险提示。宏观经济不及预期；消费力恢复不及预期；食品安全问题。 972918116公共联系人2026-03-25 13:58:42 1 / 11 [本报告联系人： Table_C ontacter] [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2026 年 3 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 | | | 2026 | | 春糖会反馈：行业磨底，期待改善 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 符蓉 | 分析师： 郝宇新 | | 分析师： 廖承帅 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120010 | SAC 执证号：S0260524070009 | | | SFC CE.no: BWC944 | | SFC CE.no: BVZ687 | | | | 021-38003552 | | 021-38003553 | 021-38003816 | | | furong@gf.com.c ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [4][35] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a steady expansion in domestic demand, with a 2.8% year-on-year growth in social retail sales for January and February 2026, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence and spending [4][35] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the consumption sector is at historically low levels, reflecting market expectations. With the implementation of more consumer-promoting policies, the sector is expected to see valuation recovery [4][35] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with good growth potential and low valuations within the sector [4][35] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - From March 9 to March 20, 2026, the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index had a slight increase of 0.09%, ranking 6th among Shenwan's primary industries. The sub-industry performance varied, with meat products (+2.11%) and liquor (+1.12%) showing positive growth, while snacks (-5.59%) and prepared foods (-8.47%) faced declines [4][34] Industry News - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a significant impact from the extended Spring Festival holiday on domestic demand, with a notable increase in consumer confidence and retail sales growth [27][35] - The report mentions the trend of younger consumers (ages 18-30) driving the growth of lower-priced liquor, with 43% of liquor sales being below 300 yuan [28][30] Key Company Announcements - Wanchen Group reported a revenue of 51.459 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.17%, with a significant expansion in its store network [37] - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a decline of 3.4%, indicating challenges in the competitive liquor market [36] Focus on Key Companies - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye in the high-end liquor segment, suggesting they are resilient amid market adjustments [36][37] - It also highlights the potential in the dairy sector, particularly for companies like Yili and New Dairy, which may benefit from favorable cycles in raw milk and beef [37]

证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 23 日 1-2 月社零总额同比增长 2.8%，国内需求稳步扩大 ——食品饮料行业双周报 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《茅台发布《市场化运营方案》，大众品 关注细分板块龙头 —食品饮料行业观 点更新报告》2026.01.22 《低位蓄能，向新破局—食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略报告》2025.12.28 《白酒筑底，关注餐饮链复苏—食品饮 料行业周报》2025.12.02 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2026 年 03 月 09 日-03 月 20 日，申万食品饮料指数涨跌幅为 +0.09%，在申万一级行业中排名第 6 位，全部子行业涨跌幅分别 为，肉制品（+2.11%）、白酒（+1.12%）、调味品（+0.03%）、啤 酒（-0.38%）、乳品（-1.43%）、保健品（-2.65%）、软饮料（-3.21%）、 零食（-5.59%）、其他酒类（-6.02%）、烘焙食品（-6.46%）、预加 工食品（-8.47%）、熟食（-1 ...

1-2 月社零总额同比增长 2.8%，国内需求稳步扩大 ——食品饮料行业双周报 最近一年走势 分析师：王芳 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 《茅台发布《市场化运营方案》，大众品 关注细分板块龙头 —食品饮料行业观 点更新报告》2026.01.22 《低位蓄能，向新破局—食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略报告》2025.12.28 《白酒筑底，关注餐饮链复苏—食品饮 料行业周报》2025.12.02 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 证券研究报告 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 23 日 请认真阅读文后免责条款 投资评级：推荐（维持） 2026 年 03 月 09 日-03 月 20 日，申万食品饮料指数涨跌幅为 +0.09%，在申万一级行业中排名第 6 位，全部子行业涨跌幅分别 为，肉制品（+2.11%）、白酒（+1.12%）、调味品（+0.03%）、啤 酒（-0.38%）、乳品（-1.43%）、保健品（-2.65%）、软饮料（-3.21%）、 零食（-5.59%）、其他酒类（-6.02%）、烘焙食品（-6.46%）、预加 工食品（- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The demand side is experiencing a mild recovery, with notable trends in chain operations and online services. Supply-side enterprises are actively transforming, driving category and channel innovation, and capital expenditures are generally contracting, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [2][19] - The frozen and prepared food sectors are becoming increasingly standardized and are benefiting from the trend towards restaurant chain operations. Key companies to watch include Anjuke Foods and Qianwei Central Kitchen [2] - The seasoning industry is stabilizing with basic seasonings providing a foundation, while clean label trends are emerging. Compound seasonings are convenient and cater to consumers with less cooking experience, with chain restaurants demanding standardization and specialization. Recommended companies include Haitian Flavor Industry, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Yihai International, and Baoli Foods [2] - The baking industry is expected to gradually shift towards retail channels and cross-industry restaurant channels, with a focus on companies like Lihigh Foods that can capitalize on these channel changes [2] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Trends - The restaurant sector is showing signs of mild recovery, with monthly year-on-year growth rates fluctuating between 0.9% and 6.9% post-pandemic. The total revenue for the restaurant sector is projected to grow from 3.23 trillion to 5.80 trillion yuan from 2015 to 2025, with a CAGR of 6.02% [19][20] - The chain operation rate in the restaurant sector is increasing, from 15% in 2020 to an expected 25% in 2025. The penetration rate of takeaway services has also risen significantly, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [30][31] 2. Supply-Side Transformation - Capital expenditures in the food processing and seasoning sectors have contracted in recent years, with significant declines noted in 1H25. For instance, capital expenditures in the seasoning sector dropped by 24% year-on-year [41][46] - Supply chain companies are evolving from mere supporters to co-creators and drivers, necessitating proactive consumer demand exploration and product innovation [19][41] 3. Industry Segmentation - The frozen food sector is the second largest globally, but per capita consumption in China remains low compared to other countries. The industry is characterized by low concentration [19] - The prepared food sector is becoming more standardized, enhancing food safety and health standards [19] - The seasoning sector is seeing a rise in compound seasonings, with clean label soy sauce emerging as a new market segment [19] - The baking industry is witnessing a shift towards short-shelf-life products in retail and cross-industry channels [19]

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒底部逐步夯实，重视龙头配置 价值—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 《政策定调树立信心，白酒复苏趋势 明确—行业点评报告》-2026.3.17 《餐饮修复叠加通胀预期，调味品板 块值得重视—行业周报》-2026.3.15 春节提振消费表现，1-2 月社零增速环比提升 ——行业点评报告 张宇光（分析师） 张恒玮（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122020008 投资建议：春节消费集中释放，社零数据增长较好，建议关注头部企业 2026 年 1-2 月社零数据呈现稳步复苏态势，增速环比 2025 年 12 月实现较好回升， 其中粮油食品、烟酒类消费实现双位数高增，主要受益于春节错期下，假期消费 集中在 1-2 月释放。食品饮料板块市场预期以及估值均处于低位 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% in February 2026, marking the highest growth since January 2023. This recovery is expected to benefit companies with strong pricing power in the food and beverage sector [2][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can effectively pass on costs to consumers, particularly in the condiment and restaurant supply chain sectors, as the industry transitions from a cost dividend phase to an initial stage of price increases [3][40] Summary by Sections CPI and Economic Recovery - The CPI has rebounded, indicating a shift towards moderate inflation, with the government targeting a CPI growth of around 2% for 2026. This is supported by fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price increases [6][15] - The service sector has become a key driver of growth, with significant increases in service prices contributing to the overall CPI rise [20][23] CPI-PPI Dynamics - The report discusses the narrowing of the CPI-PPI (Producer Price Index) gap, which is currently at 2.2 percentage points. This gap indicates that consumer prices are rising faster than production costs, benefiting companies with strong pricing power [28][30] - The report notes that the PPI has shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in February 2026, suggesting a stabilization in raw material prices [27][29] Cost Transmission and Pricing Power - The report identifies key raw materials that constitute 65%-85% of the operating costs for leading companies in the food and beverage sector, including soybeans, sugar, and dairy products. The ability to manage these costs effectively will be crucial for maintaining profitability [41][44] - Companies in the condiment and restaurant supply chain are highlighted as having strong pricing power, with expectations for a new round of price increases due to rising costs and improved demand conditions [3][40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong channel and product capabilities, clear price increase expectations, and high dividend attributes, such as Haidilao, Anjoy Foods, and Mengniu Dairy [3][40] - It also suggests investing in leading beer companies and high-growth regional leaders, as well as companies in the dairy and snack sectors that possess category and channel advantages [3][40]

董事會會議召開日期 安井食品集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈，本公司將 於2026年3月30日（星期一）舉行董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）審議及批准本公司 及其附屬公司截至2025年12月31日止年度之年度業績及其發佈，以及考慮建議派 發末期股息（如有）。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 ANJOY FOODS GROUP CO., LTD. 安井食品集團股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2648） 於本公告日期，本公司董事會成員包括：(i)執行董事劉鳴鳴先生、張清苗先生、 章高路先生及黃建聯先生；(ii)非執行董事鄭亞南博士、戴凡先生及張光璽先生； 及(iii)獨立非執行董事張梅女士、劉曉峰博士、趙蓓博士及張躍平先生。 承董事會命 安井食品集團股份有限公司 董事長兼執行董事 劉鳴鳴先生 香港，2026年3月17日 ...

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 ANJOY FOODS GROUP CO., LTD. 安井食品集團股份有限公司 承董事會命 安井食品集團股份有限公司 董事長兼執行董事 劉鳴鳴先生 香港，2026年3月17日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會成員包括：(i)執行董事劉鳴鳴先生、張清苗先生、 章高路先生及黃建聯先生；(ii)非執行董事鄭亞南博士、戴凡先生及張光璽先生； 及(iii)獨立非執行董事張梅女士、劉曉峰博士、趙蓓博士及張躍平先生。 （股份代號：2648） 董事會會議召開日期 安井食品集團股份有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈，本公司將 於2026年3月30日（星期一）舉行董事會會議，藉以（其中包括）審議及批准本公司 及其附屬公司截至2025年12月31日止年度之年度業績及其發佈，以及考慮建議派 發末期股息（如有）。 ...