港元走高逼近强方保证 港股将向何处去
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-28 16:52

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar has experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar, nearing the strong-side convertibility guarantee of 7.75, driven by a combination of supply contraction and demand expansion in the currency market [1][2][4]. Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar rose sharply from 7.85 to 7.7755 against the US dollar, marking the fastest appreciation in nearly 20 years [2]. - As of August 28, the Hong Kong dollar continued to fluctuate below 7.80, remaining close to the strong-side guarantee [2]. - The increase in the Hong Kong dollar's value has led to a tightening of liquidity, with the overnight Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rising from under 0.2% in May to nearly 4% [2][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar is attributed to a reduction in supply and an increase in demand [4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the market by purchasing a total of 104.41 billion HKD to stabilize the currency, resulting in a significant decrease in bank reserves to 53.7 billion HKD, the lowest since 2020 [4]. - Demand for the Hong Kong dollar has surged, with southbound capital inflows reaching a record net inflow of nearly 35.88 billion HKD on August 15 [5][6]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest a low probability of the Hong Kong dollar touching the strong-side guarantee again, although medium to long-term support remains [7]. - The performance of Hong Kong stocks has lagged behind A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index showing a modest increase of 0.98% over the past 20 trading days compared to higher gains in A-share indices [11]. - Analysts believe that the recent reversal in the Hong Kong dollar's trend could positively impact the stock market, as a stronger currency typically attracts foreign capital [12]. Future Projections - Factors supporting the Hong Kong stock market include expectations of a weaker US dollar, continued demand for quality assets, and ongoing IPO activities that attract foreign investment [13].