Company Overview - Cao Cao Travel is a ride-hailing service platform incubated by Geely Group, with the actual controller holding approximately 77% of the shares [1] - The platform's total transaction volume is projected to reach 17 billion yuan in 2024, capturing a market share of 5.4%, ranking second in the industry [1] - From 2015 to 2020, the company built its capacity from scratch using a B2C model, leveraging the advantages of its parent automotive manufacturer [1] - Between 2021 and 2023, the company underwent a strategic transformation, shifting leadership from automotive backgrounds to professional ride-hailing managers, and introduced customized vehicles as a differentiation strategy [1] Industry Development - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing stable penetration growth, with an average daily passenger volume of 98 million in 2024, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The daily order volume for ride-hailing services in China is expected to reach 31.5 million in 2024, with penetration rates increasing from 10% in 2015 to 41% in 2022 [2] - The industry faces challenges due to low profit margins, with leading player Didi's adjusted EBITA/GTV expected to be 3.0%/4.0% in 2024/2025 Q1 [2] - The core of the industry is controlled by two networks (capacity and traffic), with the rise of aggregation platforms providing traffic access for smaller players [2] Key Insights - The company aims to achieve profitability through customized vehicles and is expected to reach a daily order volume of 2.29 million by 2025, with EBIT per order projected at -0.3 yuan [3] - The introduction of customized vehicles is expected to reduce driver vehicle ownership costs and enhance long-distance order volumes, with driver hourly wages at 36 yuan compared to the industry average of 27 yuan in 2024 [3] - Geely Group's integration of its smart driving business and plans to launch a dedicated L4 Robotaxi model by the end of 2026 positions the company for mid-term growth [3] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for the company are 20.9 billion, 27.5 billion, and 34.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 26% respectively [4] - The company is expected to reach a net profit of -490 million, 100 million, and 510 million yuan in the same period [4] - The introduction of customized vehicles and Robotaxi services is anticipated to open new profit avenues, with a target price range of 98-108 HKD for 2026 [4]
曹操出行(02643.HK)：从定制车到ROBOTAXI 主机厂网约车龙头启航