两融余额超15年？资金都在冲锋的方向在这

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role of margin financing in driving the current bull market, highlighting the industries that have attracted the most margin funds and their performance compared to the Shanghai Composite Index. Group 1: Margin Financing Dynamics - Margin financing has become a core driver of the current bull market, with high-risk speculative funds ignoring valuations and fundamentals, focusing solely on price trends [1][2]. - A cycle is created where industries with increased margin financing see price rises, leading to further investments and continued price increases, particularly in the A-share market without short-selling mechanisms [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Trends - In the 2015 bull market, the top five industries by margin financing were: - Securities: 174.4 billion - Banking: 145.5 billion - Real Estate: 107.2 billion - Construction: 77.3 billion - Non-ferrous Metals: 75.7 billion - These five industries accounted for 26% of the total margin financing of 2.2 trillion [2]. - As of now, the margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has reached 2.2123 trillion, nearing the historical peak of 2.2664 trillion from June 2015 [3]. Group 3: Industry Performance Comparison - From June 2013 to June 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 158%, while the following industries outperformed: - Securities Index: 258% - Banking Index: 109% - Real Estate Index: 246% - Construction Index: 290% - Non-ferrous Metals Index: 187% [5]. - In the current bull market, the top five industries by margin financing are: - Securities: 131.8 billion - Electronic Components: 121.2 billion - Integrated Circuits: 107.8 billion - Application Software: 83.3 billion - Industrial Machinery: 82.9 billion [8][9]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - The current bull market has shifted focus from traditional sectors like banking and real estate to high-growth sectors such as communication, chips, AI, and robotics, which are now attracting margin financing [7][13]. - Valuations for these sectors are high, with PE ratios indicating that they are expensive: - Communication ETF: 48x - Integrated Circuit ETF: 197x - AI ETF: 230x - Robotics ETF: 81x [14][19][21]. - The article suggests that while these sectors are currently expensive, the strategy should focus on price trends rather than valuations for future investments [23].