美国劳工局长被炒？美联储理事也被解雇？特朗普在折腾美国经济

Core Viewpoint - The credibility of U.S. economic data is being undermined by political interference, leading to significant market reactions and concerns about future inflation [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 1, the dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre triggered panic on Wall Street, resulting in the S&P 500 index experiencing its largest single-day drop in three months, with over $1 trillion in market value evaporating [1] - Investors rushed into safe-haven assets, causing gold prices to soar to a historic high of $3,393 per ounce, while Bitcoin surged 14% within a week [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.92%, indicating heightened investor concerns about potential inflation over the next decade [1] Group 2: Political Interference - Former President Trump publicly criticized the disappointing July employment data, which showed only 73,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, while previous months' data was revised down by 258,000 jobs [3] - Trump’s actions included the dismissal of McEntyre without evidence, and he expressed intentions to appoint a "reliable" successor who had previously suggested halting employment reports [3] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has faced budget cuts and staff reductions, with a projected 15% workforce cut by 2025, leading to reliance on estimations rather than actual data collection [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Following the Labor Bureau controversy, Trump targeted the Federal Reserve, announcing the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, marking the second high-profile departure in two months [6] - If Cook leaves, Trump's appointees would control five out of seven seats on the Federal Reserve Board, potentially skewing U.S. monetary policy [6] Group 4: Data Integrity Issues - The credibility of U.S. economic data has been declining, with the Labor Statistics Bureau admitting that 15% of price samples in the July CPI report were estimated rather than collected [6] - Some hedge funds have begun to rely on alternative data sources, such as satellite imagery to analyze retail trends, as they no longer trust government data [6] - Ordinary investors face high costs for alternative data, forcing them to navigate an "information black market" [6] Group 5: Historical Lessons - Historical examples illustrate the dangers of manipulating economic data, such as Greece's hidden deficits leading to a debt crisis, Turkey's frequent changes in statistical leadership eroding trust, and Argentina's inflation data manipulation resulting in public outrage [8] - When data becomes a tool for political manipulation, the ultimate cost is the economic stability of the nation and the welfare of its citizens [8]