花旗银行德克·威勒：欧洲商业周期转向超配美股 看跌美元

Group 1: Stock Market Insights - Dirk Willer highlighted that the core driver in the stock market is the resurgence of AI trading, with the technology sector leading the U.S. market as a key support [1] - Despite the U.S. stock market being perceived as expensive, valuations may stretch more than expected in a bubble phase, indicating potential for further capital inflow into U.S. equities [1] - Europe is viewed as a quality choice for diversification, as the business cycle is turning, and European investors are the largest holders of U.S. stocks, which could boost European markets if they choose to repatriate funds [1] Group 2: Bond Market Perspectives - Willer maintains a neutral stance on government bonds, noting a tug-of-war between potential Fed rate cuts and the need for an increase in the term premium of U.S. Treasuries [2] - He suggests a "steepening trade" strategy for U.S. Treasuries, benefiting from Fed policy repricing at the front end while facing pressure at the back end due to term premium concerns [2] - Optimism is expressed for emerging market bonds, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, as they typically perform well when the dollar weakens [2] Group 3: Currency Market Analysis - The dollar is facing both structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness through the end of the year, particularly against high-yielding emerging market currencies [3] - Willer emphasizes that the anticipated Fed rate cuts will likely contribute to the dollar's decline [3] Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - Citigroup holds a neutral stance on all commodities but advocates for a "buy on dips" strategy, particularly for gold, which is seen as a quality asset for reserve diversification [3] - Silver is favored due to its historical performance under current market conditions, where rising term premiums and a bullish stock market align favorably for silver [3] Group 5: Overall Market Sentiment - Citigroup maintains a positive outlook on global equity markets, particularly favoring the U.S. market due to its high exposure to AI [4] - A cautious approach is adopted towards U.S. bonds, with a preference for emerging market bonds, while maintaining a bearish view on the dollar [4]