山西汾酒(600809)：2Q25业绩符合预期 产品结构下移拖累利润率

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a total revenue of 23.964 billion yuan for 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% year-on-year. In 2Q25, revenue was 7.441 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.45%, while net profit dropped by 13.50% year-on-year to 1.857 billion yuan [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2Q25, the revenue from Fenjiu was 7.18 billion yuan, up 0.56% year-on-year, while other liquor revenues were 220 million yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year. The company increased the distribution of its glass Fenjiu due to a weak overall consumption environment [2]. - The revenue from Shanxi province in 2Q25 was 2.65 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 4.75 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, indicating increased distribution efforts for glass Fenjiu outside the province [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The product structure shift negatively impacted profitability, with gross margin decreasing by 3.2 percentage points to 71.9%. The net profit margin fell by 4 percentage points to 25% [2]. - Sales cash receipts in 2Q25 were 6.94 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year, while contract liabilities at the end of the period were 5.98 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to relieve pressure starting in Q3, gradually returning to healthy development. The increase in channel inventory and the shift in product structure reflect growth pressures, but the brand and product advantages remain strong [3]. - The company anticipates that the second half of 2025 will focus on promoting a healthy market development after alleviating growth pressures [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to restrictions in dining and other consumption scenarios, the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered by 10.5% and 11.8% to 11.7 billion yuan and 12.3 billion yuan, respectively. The target price remains at 228 yuan, corresponding to 24/23 times P/E for 2025/26, with a current price corresponding to 21/20 times P/E, indicating a potential upside of 15.4% [4].