美印关税战突袭，印度嘴硬不松口，没了中国才知艰难滋味

Core Viewpoint - The Modi government's ambition for India as a major power is being severely tested under the pressure of U.S. tariffs, leading to a paradoxical reliance on China for support [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 50% on Indian goods, directly affecting India's exports to the U.S., which total $60.2 billion, accounting for 70% of India's total exports [3]. - Bloomberg Economics warns that if the tariff situation persists for a year, India's GDP growth could plummet by 0.8%, resulting in the loss of nearly one million jobs [3]. Group 2: Dependency on China - India relies on China for 35% of its supply in sectors such as apparel, pharmaceuticals, and electronic components, indicating that retaliatory measures against the U.S. may backfire due to this dependency on "Chinese manufacturing" [3]. - The Indian electronics industry has suffered a loss of $15 billion and 100,000 jobs over four years due to restrictions on Chinese investment [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics - Amid the U.S.-India tariff conflict, Pakistan's vice premier visited Bangladesh to sign six agreements, signaling a strengthening of ties with India's rival, which complicates India's geopolitical landscape [5]. - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Pakistan from 29% to 19%, while simultaneously increasing tariffs on India, further straining U.S.-India relations [5]. Group 4: Shift in Indian Government's Stance - In response to the escalating situation, the Modi government has announced a visit to China and lifted several investment restrictions on Chinese companies, acknowledging the impracticality of excluding China from its supply chain [5]. - India's finance minister stated that it is unrealistic to exclude China, which accounts for 60% of global electronic production, from India's economic considerations [5]. Group 5: Economic Realities - The consensus among Indian economists is that the country cannot afford to sever ties with China, as evidenced by the fact that 80% of television components are produced in China [6]. - India's attempts to settle oil transactions with Russia in rupees have been met with challenges, as Russia prefers transactions in yuan due to India's insufficient hard currency reserves [6]. Group 6: Chinese Countermeasures - China has initiated anti-dumping duties on Indian pesticide chlorpyrifos, impacting $800 million of Indian exports [7]. - In contrast to its approach with Brazil, where it welcomed coffee exporters, China has taken a more cautious stance towards India, questioning the strategic trust between the two nations [7]. Group 7: Conclusion on India's Position - The perception among Indian netizens is that the U.S. has betrayed its ally, but analysts argue that India's value to the U.S. is diminishing, while China holds significant leverage over India's industrial supply chains [9]. - Modi's aspirations for India as a major power appear to be crumbling, with the only viable path forward seemingly leading to Beijing [9].