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中炬高新(600872):下滑幅度收窄 期待改善

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing operational pressure due to weak demand and intense competition, but there are expectations for improvement in the future [1] Investment Highlights - The investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.9, 1.12, and 1.17 yuan respectively. The company is undergoing a reform process and is expected to achieve both organic and external growth, with a target price of 22.5 yuan per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [2] - In Q2 2025, the company's main business revenue decline narrowed to single digits, with revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 9.11% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 76 million yuan, down 31.57% year-on-year. The main seasoning products saw a revenue of 1.992 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 18.39% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue at 966 million yuan, down 3.29% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to Q1 [2][3] - The sales expense ratio significantly increased in Q2 2025, with a gross margin increase of 3.22 percentage points to 39.39%, primarily due to cost reductions. The sales expense ratio was 18.88%, up 4.05 percentage points, likely due to significant increases in employee compensation and advertising expenses [2] Financial Metrics - In Q2 2025, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increased by 0.37, 0.04, and -0.18 percentage points to 8.12%, 3.74%, and 0.05% respectively. Despite the increase in gross margin, the significant rise in sales expense ratio led to a decrease in net profit margin attributable to the parent company by 1.03 percentage points to 8.03% [3] - The revenue growth rate for soy sauce turned positive in Q2 2025. The revenue and growth rates for various products in H1 2025 were as follows: soy sauce at 1.298 billion yuan, down 16.68% (Q1: -31.57%, Q2: +6.39%), chicken essence and powder at 255 million yuan, down 21.98% (Q1: -28.6%, Q2: -13.73%), cooking oil at 109 million yuan, down 49.39% (Q1: -50.01%, Q2: -48.84%), and other products at 331 million yuan, down 3.23% (Q1: -6.89%, Q2: +2.84%) [3] Regional Performance - The southern main sales area remains significantly pressured. Revenue and growth rates by region in H1 2025 were as follows: Eastern region at 436 million yuan, down 28.64% (Q1: -47.71%, Q2: +1.11%), Southern region at 808 million yuan, down 16.29% (Q1: -19.63%, Q2: -12.36%), Central and Western region at 434 million yuan, down 16.12% (Q1: -29.05%, Q2: +5.61%), and Northern region at 316 million yuan, down 9.64% (Q1: -18.72%, Q2: +6.79%) [4] - The number of distributors increased by 245 to 2,799, with further channel penetration, achieving a county development rate of 86% and a prefecture-level city development rate of 97.9% [4]