山西焦煤(000983)：成本压降+火电扭亏 2H25改善可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but anticipates a recovery in profitability due to cost control and stable coal prices [1][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 18.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, and a net profit of 1.014 billion yuan, down 48.42% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 9.028 billion yuan, a decline of 18.06%, with a net profit of 333 million yuan, down 67.22% [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was maintained at 29.2%, reflecting effective cost control despite a 10% decline in industry index prices [1]. Power Business Performance - The power business saw a slight revenue decrease of 4% to 3.15 billion yuan, but costs fell by 13% to 2.88 billion yuan, resulting in a significant increase in gross margin to 8.4% from -0.5% in the previous year [2]. - Projects like Huajin Coking Coal improved gas utilization and profitability through efficiency upgrades [2]. Resource Expansion - The company is expanding its resource reserves by acquiring coal and bauxite resources, with a recent bid for exploration rights in the Lüliang area, which includes 953 million tons of coal reserves [3][4]. - The company received a mineral resource exploration permit on June 20, 2025, and plans to conduct geological exploration [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Following four price increases in the coking coal industry, the average price is now set at 1,480 yuan/ton, leading to upward revisions in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5]. - The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 2.99 billion yuan, 3.44 billion yuan, and 3.55 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -3.8%, +14.8%, and +3.3% [5]. - The target price has been raised to 7.60 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14.4x for 2025E, maintaining an "overweight" rating [5].