黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.8.29）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with over 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut in September, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and often leads to a weaker dollar, creating a dual benefit for gold [2] - Political tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, as President Trump attempted to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, who subsequently filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to do so, potentially leading to quicker and prolonged low interest rates that could drive safe-haven investments into gold [2] - Despite a decline in initial jobless claims and a rebound in corporate profits indicating economic resilience, uncertainty continues to drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, while a buoyant market allows investors to hedge potential risks through gold, creating a new norm of simultaneous gains in both stocks and gold [2] - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. July Core PCE Price Index year-on-year, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for August [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a rebound after a dip, with a strong bullish trend indicated by three consecutive bullish candles, and the short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) displaying a clear upward divergence, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [5] - Key support levels to monitor include the 5-day moving average around 3395; if this level holds, the bullish trend remains intact, while a drop below could see stronger support at the 10-day moving average around 3365 [6] - The primary resistance level is focused around 3423/3425, which is a confluence of recent highs and an upward trend line; a breakout above this level could lead to further resistance at 3439 and 3452 [7] - The four-hour chart indicates a current upward trend with an "ascending wedge" pattern, which could either continue or reverse depending on whether the price holds above the lower support line of the wedge [9]