Ge Long Hui·2025-08-29 02:04Group 1: Tariff Policy - The actual average import tariff rate in the U.S. increased by only 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is significantly lower than market expectations [1] - The changes in the U.S. import structure and the low proportion of taxable goods are the main reasons for the lower-than-expected tariff collection [1] - In the second half of the year, the average import tariff rate is expected to rise further with the implementation of new tariff rates and gradual enforcement of industry tariffs [1] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Enterprises - U.S. enterprises are currently bearing approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers are responsible for less than 40% [2] - The transmission of tariff costs to enterprises has been slow, but as inventory is gradually consumed and trade policy uncertainty decreases, enterprises are likely to continue raising prices [2] - However, due to increased consumer sensitivity to prices, enterprises may still need to absorb a significant portion of the tariff costs [2] Group 3: Consumer Inflation - The dependence on imports is high for categories such as auto parts, new cars, clothing, and furniture [3] - If the average import tariff rate in the U.S. rises by 10% within the year, it could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.4%, assuming stable demand [3] - A significant decline in demand could help alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. [3]