戴德梁行：2025年大中华区写字楼供应需求前沿趋势报告

Core Insights - The report by Cushman & Wakefield highlights the differentiated development trends in the office market across various cities in Greater China, focusing on supply, demand, vacancy rates, and rental changes as of Q2 2025 [1][2][34]. Supply Overview - The total stock of Grade A office space in 20 major cities in Greater China reached approximately 72.13 million square meters by Q2 2025, with significant disparities in stock levels among cities [11][32]. - Future supply projections indicate that Suzhou will have a high future supply of 4,622,455 square meters, followed closely by Shenzhen at 5,412,263 square meters, while Shenyang has a notably low future supply of only 120,582 square meters [1][2]. Demand Dynamics - Net absorption rates show clear differentiation, with cities like Nanjing, Wuhan, and Changsha demonstrating positive net absorption figures, while some unnamed cities face negative net absorption, indicating weak demand [2][32]. - The overall vacancy rate across major cities in Greater China was reported at 24.9% in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, with cities like Nanning experiencing the highest vacancy rate at 41.3% [2][32]. Rental Trends - Rental prices have generally declined across most cities, with some cities experiencing declines exceeding 10%. Notably, Guangzhou saw a rental increase of 13.3%, showcasing its resilience in the market [2][32]. - The average rental price for Grade A office space in major core areas was recorded at 164.2 yuan per square meter per month, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% [32]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a peak in supply over the next 2-3 years, which may exert additional pressure on the market, particularly in terms of rental rates and vacancy levels [34]. - The ongoing trend of "cost control" among tenants is leading to a shift in the structure of leased areas, with smaller tenants becoming more prevalent, indicating potential challenges for landlords [39].