金荣中国：泽连斯基和普京或不会会晤，金价冲高回落加剧见顶预期

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on Thursday, with an opening price of $3,387.94 per ounce, a high of $3,413.50, a low of $3,384.54, and a closing price of $3,410.90 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, but weak employment growth may push the August unemployment rate up to 4.3% [2] - Average import tariffs in the U.S. have reached the highest level in a century due to President Trump's protectionist trade policies, leading to a labor market situation characterized by "no hiring and no layoffs" [2] - The average monthly employment growth over the past three months was 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September to address rising labor market risks, while also emphasizing ongoing inflation threats [2] Real Estate Market - U.S. existing home sales contracts fell for the second consecutive month in July, with the pending home sales index declining by 0.4% to 71.7, close to the levels seen for most of the year [4] - Despite mortgage rates dropping to a four-month low of 6.67%, financing costs remain double what they were at the end of 2021 [4] - The National Association of Realtors' chief economist stated that unless mortgage rates continue to decline and prices adjust favorably, existing home sales are unlikely to exceed 4 million units this year [4] Geopolitical Situation - German Chancellor Merz stated that a meeting between Zelensky and Putin will not take place [5] - European leaders are considering establishing a 40-kilometer buffer zone between the Russia-Ukraine front lines as part of a peace agreement, although this may put pressure on limited peacekeeping forces [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 5.44 tons, bringing the total to 967.94 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 86.2% [6]