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山煤国际(600546):Q2以量补价业绩回升 分红与弹性兼备

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the coal market and operational performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 655 million yuan, down 49.25% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 5.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.03%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.56%. The net profit for Q2 was 400 million yuan, down 43.45% year-on-year but up 56.91% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company's coal production for H1 2025 was 17.82 million tons, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year, while sales were 17.88 million tons, a decrease of 14.1% year-on-year [1]. Production and Sales - In Q2 2025, the company produced 8.73 million tons of coal, an 11.0% year-on-year increase, but a 3.9% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Self-produced coal sales were 5.93 million tons, down 8.1% year-on-year but up 34.3% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company implemented a mechanism for inventory classification and flexible production to stabilize production levels amid market pressures [2]. Pricing and Costs - The average selling price of self-produced coal in H1 2025 was 556 yuan per ton, down 18.9% year-on-year, while the cost was 275 yuan per ton, down 10.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the selling price dropped to 528 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25.2% year-on-year, and the cost increased slightly to 278 yuan per ton, a 9.1% decrease year-on-year [1]. Dividend and Investment Outlook - The estimated dividend yield is approximately 3.97%, with a commitment to distribute at least 60% of the annual distributable profit in cash from 2024 to 2026 [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025, supported by rising coal prices and seasonal demand, leading to upward revisions in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3].