供给收缩或提振煤价，逢低再布局弹性标的 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,855.11 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,441.23 | 2026-02-02 配置机会》2026-01-31 2026-01-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

煤炭 行业事件点评 领先大市-A(上调) 2026 年 2 月 6 日 行业研究/行业分析 【山证煤炭】弱法币致实物定价权提升， 关注短期事件驱动影响-【山证煤炭】行 业周报（20260126-20260201） 2026.2.3 【山证煤炭】2025 年四季度煤炭债复盘： 财务表现仍有改善空间，供应链风险可 控 2026.1.27 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 印尼矿商暂停现货出口，减产落地超市场预期 分析师： 投资建议：考虑海外煤价或将受催化，有望提振国内煤价预期，上调行 业评级。若海外煤价加速上涨，利好海外业务占比较高的【兖矿能源】。此 外，【潞安环能】、【山西焦煤】、【晋控煤业】、【山煤国际】等弹性品种也将 受益。 风险提示：印尼煤炭减产不及预期，印尼煤炭矿商恢复出口，海外价格上涨 不及预期。 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 行业研究/行业分析 投资要点： 事件：2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

证券之星消息，截至2026年2月5日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于11.14元，下跌4.54%，换手率3.2%， 成交量63.44万手，成交额7.08亿元。 2月5日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入3543.18万元，占总成交额5.01%，游资资金净流出319.05 万元，占总成交额0.45%，散户资金净流出3224.13万元，占总成交额4.56%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 山煤国际融资融券信息显示，融资方面，当日融资买入8015.32万元，融资偿还6754.85万元，融资净买 入1260.47万元。融券方面，融券卖出1.94万股，融券偿还7.88万股，融券余量20.89万股，融券余额 232.71万元。融资融券余额5.07亿元。 近5日融资融券数据一览见下表： 该股主要指标及行业内排名如下： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 注：主力资金为特大单成交，游资为大单成交，散户为中小单成交 山煤国际2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入153.32亿元，同比下降30.2%；归母净利润10.46亿 元，同比下 ...

山煤国际 20260204 摘要 山煤国际 2026 年已签订 2000 万吨长协合同，定价机制沿用 2025 年 5 月调整后的模式，即全国煤炭交易中心月度长协价加上港口价格指数， 扣除运费倒算坑口价，下游客户对此机制接受度较高。 2026 年四季度，山煤国际冶金煤均价约为 800 元/吨，高于三季度的 720-723 元/吨。预计四季度整体经营情况略好于三季度，暂无大额费 用计提或减值项目。 山煤国际 2025 年煤炭贸易量因进口量下降而减少，金士达进口量从 1,800 万吨降至 1,000 万吨左右。预计未来几年贸易量将维持相对平稳， 可能略低于 1,800 万吨。 山煤国际目前入洗率约为 70%，洗出率也在 70%以上。长春兴和韩家 洼两个矿井自核增保供政策实施以来，共增加 600 万吨产能，已完成所 有手续。 山西省安全监管和环保检查持续严格，煤炭企业已适应高强度监管环境， 生产基本维持在 100%-110%产能，未出现超产现象。 山煤国际对投资回报率的底线要求是 8%。公司积极关注省内资源放开 动态，评估新增资源，寻求资源扩充机会。 2026 年春节期间，山煤国际计划正常生产，不会大规模放假或停工 ...

这样的局面一直延续到昨日下午收盘。据同花顺（300033）数据，昨日煤炭开采加工板块整体收涨 7.92%，成分股中恒源煤电（600971）、开滦股份（600997）、山西焦煤（000983）、大有能源 （600403）、兖矿能源、潞安环能（601699）、中煤能源、美锦能源、陕西黑猫、山煤国际 （600546）、晋控煤业、宝泰隆（601011）、山西焦化、云煤能源等股均斩获首板涨停，陕西煤业 （601225）、淮北矿业（600985）涨超8%，郑州煤电（600121）、昊华能源（601101）等股跟涨。 消息面上，近期，受寒潮影响，国内多地迎来大风雨雪天气，居民取暖拉动能源需求攀升。为确保冬季 能源供应平稳有序，助力百姓温暖过冬和经济平稳运行，各地纷纷加大能源保供力度，推动煤炭稳产稳 供、天然气增储上产、清洁能源应发尽发。 展望后市，机构普遍看好煤价趋稳反弹及节后行情，在春节假期临近背景下，终端补库需求与供应收缩 共同支撑市场，煤价有望实现稳中略涨。大同证券分析师景剑文认为，整体来看，动力煤市场供需偏紧 格局未改，叠加春节后旺季需求预期，煤价中长期具备向上空间。 煤炭ETF年初以来累计上涨超10% 昨日早盘煤 ...

4613.96 煤炭指数昨日分时走势图 ◎记者 王文嫣 截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、兖矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。 煤炭企业人士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来 看，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 近年来，新疆煤炭产量迅速攀升，成为影响市场的重要变量。新疆维吾尔自治区统计局最新发布数据， 2025年全疆规模以上工业企业原煤累计产量5.53亿吨，同比增长1.9%，较2024年17.5%的增速明显放 缓。 煤炭市场已提前进入春节放假状态 卓创资讯煤炭行业报告认为，2026年国内动力煤供应量整体仍将保持在高位充裕水平，但考虑到国内超 产核查及"反内卷"工作将继续推进，且新增产能有限，同时煤矿或有控制产量以平衡库存保障利润行为 等因素影响产量，原煤产量增速将放缓的预期较强。 从供应端来看，主产区部分民营煤矿提前进入春节假期，国有煤矿维持稳定生产以保障供应，整体产量 边际收缩。 从需求端来看，前期寒潮推动沿海电厂日耗维持高位，但随着寒 ...

交易信息汇总 山煤国际2月4日涨停收盘，收盘价11.67元。该股于14点36分涨停，未打开涨停，截止收盘封单资金为 1.12亿元，占其流通市值0.48%。 资金流向方面，2月4日主力资金净流入9085.42万元，占总成交额10.22%；游资资金净流出4986.75万 元，占总成交额5.61%；散户资金净流出4098.67万元，占总成交额4.61%。 截至2026年2月4日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于11.67元，上涨9.99%，涨停，换手率3.96%，成交量 78.43万手，成交额8.89亿元。 当日关注点 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 来自交易信息汇总：山煤国际2月4日涨停收盘，收盘价11.67元，封单资金达1.12亿元。 来自交易信息汇总：主力资金2月4日净流入9085.42万元，占总成交额10.22%。 ...

证券之星消息，2月4日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日上涨7.75%，恒源煤电领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600971 | 恒源煤电 | 7.21 | 10.08% | 57.36万 | | 4.00亿 | | 600997 | 开滦股份 | 6.56 | 10.07% | 51.74万 | | 3.27亿 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | 7.36 | 10.01% | 189.80万 | | 13.54亿 | | 600403 | 大有能源 | 7.36 | 10.01% | 118.16万 | | 8.43亿 | | 600188 | 究矿能源 | 15.27 | 10.01% | 113.92万 | | 17.21亿 | | 6691099 | 潞安环能 | 13.97 | 10.00% | 94.87万 | | 13.0 ...