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亚钾国际(000893):价格上行带动业绩兑现 关注产能增量

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by high operational capacity and favorable potassium fertilizer market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 216.64% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 1.309 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.00% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 470 million yuan, marking a 149.17% increase [2]. Operational Analysis - The company maintained high operational loads, with potassium fertilizer production and sales in Q2 at 507,900 tons and 517,100 tons, respectively, remaining stable compared to Q1 [3]. - Global potassium fertilizer prices have risen, with Southeast Asia prices increasing by approximately 268 yuan/ton and domestic prices by about 106 yuan/ton, contributing to improved profitability [3]. - The company’s gross margin in Q2 was approximately 60.63%, an increase of over 6 percentage points from Q1 [3]. - A significant contract signed in June is expected to support potassium fertilizer prices in the second half of the year [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is advancing two new 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects, which are in the later stages of construction [4]. - The second project is progressing with the main shaft construction, while the third project has completed preliminary mining support work and is entering the electromechanical installation phase [4]. - The release of these new capacities is anticipated to significantly enhance the company’s product supply capability and drive performance [4]. Profit Forecast - The company’s board has increased the profit forecast for 2025 by 24%, projecting revenues of 5.427 billion yuan, 8.501 billion yuan, and 11.700 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 1.905 billion yuan, 2.962 billion yuan, and 3.920 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.06 yuan, 3.20 yuan, and 4.24 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 10, and 8 times [5].