Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply and demand following the release of production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] - The report indicates that the bottom of the cycle is becoming clearer, with potential price increases for chemical products driven by demand recovery and supply stability in the second half of the year [2][6] Industry Overview - The current cycle has reached its tail end, with a total of 12 quarters of decline since Q3 2022, following a 7-quarter expansion from Q4 2020 to Q2 2022 [10][12] - The report outlines that the chemical industry has experienced three significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the latest cycle characterized by a demand-driven recovery followed by a supply-side pressure [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively low valuations, such as sucralose (recommended: Jinhe Industrial), pesticides (recommended: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares), and MDI (recommended: Wanhua Chemical) [3][4] - It highlights the importance of domestic demand in countering tariff impacts, recommending companies in refrigerants and fertilizers [3][4] - The report identifies investment opportunities in sectors with upcoming capacity releases, such as organic silicon (recommended: Xin'an Chemical) and spandex [3][4] Price and Profitability Trends - The report notes that many sub-industry product prices remain at historical lows, with specific prices for spandex, PA6, and other fibers at 0%, 4%, and 5% of historical levels respectively [28] - It mentions that the chemical industry has seen a slight recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, although the overall performance remains under pressure [27][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the global chemical capital expenditure is on a downward trend, with domestic companies experiencing a slowdown in investment while still facing significant pressure to convert projects into fixed assets [22][32] - It also states that both domestic and international markets are entering a replenishment phase in 2025, which may influence inventory levels and pricing strategies [35][36]

证券之星消息，8月29日农化制品板块较上一交易日上涨1.07%，云图控股领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3857.93，上涨0.37%。深证成指报收于12696.15，上涨0.99%。农化制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002539 | 云图控股 | 11.52 | 3.88% | 54.24万 | | 6.32 亿 | | 605033 | 美邦股份 | 24.79 | 3.81% | 7.90万 | | 1.95 Z | | 002258 | 利尔化学 | 12.83 | 3.63% | 43.97万 | | 5.65亿 | | 603360 | 百傲化学 | 26.35 | 3.54% | - 36.14万 | | 9.26亿 | | 000893 | 亚钾国际 | 33.88 | 3.32% | 18.54万 | | 6.32亿 | | 002545 | 东方铁塔 | 10.16 | 3.25% | 26.97万 | | 2.75亿 | ...

二季度钾肥价格继续上行，公司业绩持续兑现。根据百川数据，2025 年二季度国内氯化钾市场均价 2994 元/吨，环比+3.7%。国际方面，二季度温哥华氯化钾FOB 市场均价293 美元/吨，环比+11.2%，上 半年国内国际钾肥市场共振上行，推动公司业绩持续兑现。反映在报表端，2025 年上半年公司氯化钾 业务实现营业收入24.6 亿元，同比+48.3%，实现毛利率58.2%，同比+10.3pct，实现销售均价2353 元/ 吨，同比+22.1%。 事件：公司发布2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年公司实现营业收入25.2 亿元，同比+48.5%，实现归 母净利润8.5 亿元，同比+216.6%，实现扣非后归母净利润8.6 亿元，同比+219.5%。单季度来看，2025 年第二季度公司实现营业收入13.1 亿元，同比/环比分别+23.0%/+8.0%，实现归母净利润4.7 亿元，同 比/环比分别+149.2%/+22.4%。 盈利预测与估值：综合考虑国内钾肥大合同对氯化钾价格的支撑，行业发展趋势，以及公司老挝钾矿产 能释放节奏，我们预测公司25-27 年实现营业收入57.0、87.1、102.1 亿元， ...

业绩简评 2025 年8 月27 日公司披露半年报，上半年实现营收25.22 亿元，同比增长48.54%；实现归母净利润8.55 亿元，同比增长216.64%。 其中，Q2 实现营收13.09 亿元，同比增长23.00%；实现归母净利润4.70 亿元，同比增长149.17%。 经营分析 现有装置维持高负荷运行，钾肥景气提升带动业绩增长。二季度公司延续现有装置的高负荷运行，二季 度实现钾肥产销50.79、51.71 万吨，环比一季度基本维持平稳。二季度全球磷肥价格持续上行，根据百 川数据，东南亚钾肥价格环比上行约268 元/吨，国内氯化钾价格环比上行约106 元/吨，价格上行带动 公司盈利兑现明显提升，二季度公司毛利率约为60.63%，环比一季度提升超过6 个点。6 月份，我国签 订大合同订单，为下半年钾肥价格形成底部支撑。今年来看，钾肥的需求增长保持较好水平，根据 Argus 的最新预测，2025 年全球钾肥需求量将提升至7430 万吨，较前两年有较为明显的提升，全球钾 肥供给短期增量有限，钾肥供给格局较为集中，预计钾肥下半年运行仍然较为稳健，有进一步小幅提升 的空间。 在建200 万吨产能项目进一步推进，公 ...

化工板块今日（8月29日）猛攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后震荡拉升，截至 发稿，场内价格涨2.08%。 成份股方面，合成树脂、氟化工、钾肥等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，蓝晓科技、巨化股份双双 大涨超7%，藏格矿业涨超6%，新凤鸣、新宙邦涨超5%，三美股份、亚钾国际、恩捷股份等多股涨超 4%。 | | 分割 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九转 面线 工具 @ (2 > | | 化工ETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.775 | | | | 516020[化工ETF] 10:25 价 0.735 涨跌 0.015(2.08%) 均价 0.727 服交量 405 IOP ... | | | | த 2.0896 | 0.7 35 | | +0.015 +2.08% | | | | NVA | | | | | | | SSE CNY 10:25:14 交易中 | | 10 + ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the nutritional products sector, with New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) achieving a revenue of 11.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76%, and a net profit of 3.603 billion yuan, up 63.46% [10] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of the amino acid market, particularly methionine, with prices rising to 22,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 12.98% [11] - The report notes the steady performance of the vitamin A and E segments, with revenue of 2.085 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, maintaining a net profit margin of 58% despite recent price declines [12] Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe's nutritional products segment accounted for 64.86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 47.79%, an increase of 11.93 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company has expanded its methionine production capacity to 460,000 tons per year, positioning it as the third-largest producer globally [11] - The vitamin segment's revenue is expected to remain stable, with recent price adjustments indicating limited further declines [12] Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 6.5% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 4.0% decrease in sales area as of July 2025 [22] - The average price of new residential properties has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the housing market [23] - Recent policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to provide some support to the real estate market, although the overall outlook remains cautious [24] Financial Performance - The report indicates that Beike-W (02423.HK) achieved a revenue of 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, although net profit declined by 32% [28] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, a 34.6% increase, but a net profit decline of 25.2% due to lower gross margins [31] - Zhou Dasheng (002867.SZ) experienced a 43.29% drop in revenue to 4.597 billion yuan, while net profit remained relatively stable, reflecting a 1.27% decline [32] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the non-bank financial sector is poised for growth, driven by a shift in deposit behaviors and increased demand for risk assets [25] - The overall market is in a recovery phase, with expectations of a gradual improvement in economic conditions and investment opportunities in various sectors [26] - The report maintains a positive outlook for companies with strong fundamentals and innovative product offerings, particularly in the nutritional and financial sectors [13][26]

盈利预测与投资评级：预计公司2025、2026 年EPS 为2.06元和3.02 元，以8 月27 日收盘价33.06 元计 算，PE 分别为16.03 倍和10.95 倍。考虑到公司的行业地位和发展前景，维持公司 "增持"的投资评级。 受钾肥价格上涨的影响，公司盈利能力大幅提升，推动了上半年业绩的增长。上半年综合毛利率 57.50%，同比提升8.44 个百分点。其中钾肥业务毛利率58.20%，同比提升10.31 个百分点。净利率 33.82%，同比提升18.83 个百分点。 税收方面，根据公司公告，2024 至2028 年亚钾老挝公司的企业所得税率由35%下调至20%，出口关税 税率由7%下降至1.5%。在钾肥业务量价齐升、盈利提升以及税收优惠等因素推动下，上半年公司实现 净利润8.55 亿元，同比增长216.64%，扣非后的净利润8.56 亿元，同比增长219.48%。 钾肥价格景气有望延续，保障全年业绩增长。2024 年二季度以来，钾肥价格逐步回暖。截至2025 年8 月28 日，国内氯化钾市场价为3260 元/吨，2025 年以来涨幅27.18%，较2024 年3 月低点上涨50.58%。 2025 ...

财报体检工具显示： 1. 建议关注公司现金流状况（货币资金/流动负债仅为59.89%） 分析师工具显示：证券研究员普遍预期2025年业绩在18.55亿元，每股收益均值在2.0元。 据证券之星公开数据整理，近期亚钾国际（000893）发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收 入25.22亿元，同比上升48.54%，归母净利润8.55亿元，同比上升216.64%。按单季度数据看，第二季度 营业总收入13.09亿元，同比上升23.0%，第二季度归母净利润4.7亿元，同比上升149.17%。本报告期亚 钾国际盈利能力上升，毛利率同比增幅17.21%，净利率同比增幅125.65%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现尚佳。其中，毛利率57.5%，同比增17.21%，净利率33.82%，同比增 125.65%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计2.88亿元，三费占营收比11.43%，同比减40.42%，每股 净资产13.58元，同比增9.83%，每股经营性现金流0.9元，同比增220.31%，每股收益0.94元，同比增 220.7% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | - ...

钾肥量利齐升助力业绩高增，钾肥及非钾业务新建产能有序推进公司发布2025 年中报，实现营收25.22 亿元，同比+48.5%；归母净利润8.55 亿元，同比+216.6%。其中Q2 实现营收13.09 亿元，同比+23%、 环比+8%；归母净利润4.7 亿元，同比+149.2%、环比+22.4%，钾肥量利齐升助力业绩高增，业绩符合 预期。我们维持盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为18.22、24.08、29.26 亿元，EPS 分 别为1.97、2.61、3.17 元/股，当前股价对应PE 为16.6、12.6、10.4 倍。我们看好公司持续低成本扩张钾 肥产能，开拓非钾业务，朝"世界级钾肥供应商"的战略目标稳步迈进，维持"买入"评级。 盈利能力显著改善，顺利推进钾肥及非钾业务新建产能，成长动力充足（1）钾肥产销：2025H1，公司 氯化钾产量101.41 万吨（同比+20.0%），销量104.54万吨（同比+21.4%），营收24.60 亿元（同比 +48.29%），毛利率58.20%（同比+10.31pcts），我们测算均价2,353 元/吨（同比+22.1%）。2025Q2 氯 化 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——世界首例基因编辑猪肺成功移植人体 对话主要参与者：距离临床应用还有 多远？ （记者 王晓波） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经AI快讯，开源证券8月28日发布研报称，给予亚钾国际（000893.SZ，最新价：32.79元）买入评 级。评级理由主要包括：1）钾肥量利齐升助力业绩高增，钾肥及非钾业务新建产能有序推进；2）盈利 能力显著改善，顺利推进钾肥及非钾业务新建产能，成长动力充足。风险提示：经营环境、政策变化， 项目建设及投产运营风险，管理层变化等。 每日经济新闻 ...