[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 07 月 15 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•基础化工 化工行业点评 钾肥价格持续修复，资源丰富企业有望受益 [Table_Summary 国内外钾肥价格修复， ] 2025Q2均价同环比上涨 截至 2025年 7月 11日，国内氯化钾、氯化钾(60%粉)分别报价 3339元/吨， 3000 元/吨，分别较年初上涨 823元/吨，450元/吨。2025Q2，国内氯化钾、 氯化钾(60%粉)均价分别为 2993.95元/吨，2881.15 元/吨，分别环比+105.50 元/吨、+233.69 元/吨，分别同比+597.50 元/吨、+469.28 元/吨。海外方面， 截至 7月 11日，氯化钾（温哥华）、氯化钾（西北欧）分别报价 308.15美元 /吨，348.67美元/吨，分别较年初上涨 60.15美元/吨，70.17美元/吨。2025Q2， 氯化钾（温哥华）、氯化钾（西北欧）均价分别为 292.65美元/吨、330.45美 元/吨，分别环比+29.55美元/吨、+41.12美元/吨，分别同比+61.66美元/吨、 +49.54美元/吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 汪静 钾肥行情持续向好，亚钾国际（000893.SZ）业绩持续向好。 日前，亚钾国际披露半年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年上半年实现净利润7.3亿元—9.3亿元，比上年同 期增长170%—244%。 亚钾国际表示，报告期内，公司钾肥生产线稳定生产，钾肥产量较上年同期持续提升；公司持续深耕国 际及国内市场，销量较上年同期也实现增长；受国际和国内钾肥价格上涨影响，公司钾肥销售价格同比 上升，钾肥业务毛利率同比上升。 长江商报记者注意到，目前，亚钾国际拥有老挝甘蒙省263.3平方公里钾盐矿权，折纯氯化钾资源储量 约10亿吨。2025年以来，钾肥价格持续修复，带动亚钾国际业绩增长。 与此同时，亚钾国际的股权转让事项仍在推进。7月10日，亚钾国际再度发布公告，持股5%以上股东中 农集团拟将其持有的公司4620万股无限售流通股份（占公司总股本的5%）通过协议转让给公司持股5% 以上股东汇能集团。若该交易最终实施完成，汇能集团将成为公司的第一大股东。 半年净利预增超170% 日前，亚钾国际披露半年度业绩预告，公司预计2025年上半年实现净利润7.3亿元—9.3亿元，比上年同 期增长170%—2 ...

截至2025年7月11日收盘，亚钾国际(000893)报收于32.68元，上涨1.81%，换手率1.88%，成交量15.26万 手，成交额4.95亿元。 亚钾国际还发布了关于第一大股东拟发生变更暨权益变动的进展公告，中农集团拟将其持有的公司 46,202,560股无限售流通股份（占公司总股本的5%）通过协议转让的方式转让给汇能集团。交易完成 后，汇能集团将成为公司第一大股东。汇能集团对前序已披露的详式权益变动报告书进行了修订，主要 内容包括郭建军先生已将其持有的北京华源佳信投资有限公司98%股权转让给邢红霞女士，并辞去汇能 集团董事、副总经理职务，不再直接或间接持有汇能集团股权，也不参与汇能集团决策和整体战略经营 管理。鄂尔多斯市华源佳信商贸有限责任公司持有汇能集团29.53%股权，其董事已变更为郭金树先 生，该公司持有的汇能集团股权对应的表决权委托给郭金树先生行使三年，汇能集团在委托表决权期间 的控股股东、实际控制人为郭金树先生。公司将持续关注本次协议转让的进展情况，并督促信息披露义 务人及时履行信息披露义务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备3101043457103012400 ...

摘要 / 又来政策市 段子说完了，哈哈哈，周报写点正经的！ 虽然周五沪指上演了"水牛"行情，但 这一波应该是站稳3500点了！ 还是一波政策市，除了之前的地产中央级会议，周五彭博报道， 包括人行顾问等 学者建议，政府应追加 1.5 万亿元（约合 2090亿美元）的新刺激计划以提振消 费， 并通过保持⼈⺠币汇率灵活性来抵消美国关税对经济增长的拖累。 最近政治局会议要开了，来炒炒预期，哈哈哈 花旗预计7月政治局会议不会进行预算中期修订或增加政府债券额度。财政部可 能会稳步执行2025年预算，推动市场相关的举措， 例如[1]持续的以旧换新政 策、[2]育儿补贴以及[3]进一步的房地产支持。 若有需要，财政部也可能动用准 财政工具，并在极端情况下使用2026年债券额度进行债务置换。 花旗还预计，会议会针对反内卷给出进一步指导。会议可能会决定召开二十届四 中全会，预计时间在10月，但具体日期可能不会立即公布。 这是一个什么样的3500点？ 华西总结了三个特征：其一，基本面修复偏缓，主要定价政策预期；其二，结构 行情明显，6月23日以来消费板块涨幅不明显。其三，赚钱效应仍待提高，主线 暂不明朗。 7月以来，市场隐含波动率 ...

基础化工 2025 年 07 月 13 日 亚钾国际 (000893) ——业绩符合预期，钾肥景气继续上行，项目进展顺利， 量价齐升趋势明显 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 07 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 32.68 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 33.06/13.65 | | 市净率 | 2.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 26,527 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,510.18/10,696.10 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.07 | | 资产负债率% | 35.18 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 924/812 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-11 08-11 09-11 10-11 11-11 12-11 01-11 02-11 03-11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

Group 1 - Yuntian Lifa plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Aerospace Electromechanical's wholly-owned subsidiary intends to transfer 70% equity of Eschong Korea [4] - Three Gorges Water Conservancy plans to publicly transfer 41.0071% equity of Chongqing Tiantai Energy Group [5] Group 2 - Galaxy Microelectronics intends to invest 310 million yuan in the construction of a high-end integrated circuit device industrialization base [6] - Wanye Enterprises' wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest 299 million yuan to establish a private equity investment fund [7] - Dailor New Materials will invest 45 million yuan to establish a holding subsidiary [8] Group 3 - Huaxi Securities expects a net profit increase of 1025.19% to 1353.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [10][11] - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 1183% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [12] - Gaode Infrared expects a net profit increase of 734.73% to 957.33% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [13] Group 4 - Tianchen Co. expects a net profit increase of 640% to 786% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [14] - Shenkai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 183% to 278% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [15] - Taishan Petroleum expects a net profit increase of 123% to 173% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [16] Group 5 - Ruikeda expects a net profit increase of 132.44% to 163.22% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [17] - Jinkong Electric anticipates a net profit of 120 million to 150 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [18] - Ankai Bus expects a net profit increase of 106.67% to 189.34% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [19] Group 6 - Yara International expects a net profit increase of 170% to 244% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [20] - Zhongshun Jierou anticipates a net profit increase of 59.85% to 82.68% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [21] - Guoan Co. expects a loss of 25.9 million to 36.7 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [22] Group 7 - Huamei Holdings expects a loss of 46.5 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [23] - AOC Technology anticipates a loss of 450 million to 490 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [24] - Shangrong Medical expects a loss of 7 million to 9.5 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [25] Group 8 - Hangang Co. expects a net loss of approximately 111 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [26] - Baili Electric's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 2% [27] - Dream Lily's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 0.5% [28]

本次业绩预告是公司财务部门的初步测算结果，未经会计师事务所审核，具 体财务数据将在公司 2025 年半年度报告中予以详细披露。敬请广大投资者谨慎 决策投资，注意投资风险。 证券代码：000893 证券简称：亚钾国际 公告编号：2025-034 亚钾国际投资（广州）股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员（除董事长郭柏春先生，被实施留置）保证信息披 露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 项 目 本报告期 上年同期 盈利：73,000 万元-93,000 万元 归属于上市公司股 盈利：26,998.79 万元 东的净利润 比上年同期增长：170%-244% 归属于上市公司股 盈利：73,000 万元-93,000 万元 东的扣除非经常性 盈利：26,795.76 万元 损益的净利润 比上年同期增长：172%-247% 基本每股收益 盈利：0.80 元/股–1.02 元/股 盈利：0.29 元/股 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本次业绩预告未经会计师事务所审计。 三、业绩变动原因说明 报告期内，公司经营业绩同比上升，主要原因如下：一是公司钾肥生产线稳 定生产，上半年钾肥产量 ...

亚钾国际（000893）公告，预计2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日归属于上市公司股东的净利润为7.3亿 元-9.3亿元，比上年同期的2.7亿元增长170%-244%。归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 为7.3亿元-9.3亿元，比上年同期的2.68亿元增长172%-247%。基本每股收益为0.8元/股–1.02元/股。公司 上半年钾肥销售价格同比上升，公司上半年钾肥业务毛利率同比上升。同时，叠加税收优惠政策的影 响，公司2025年半年度经营业绩同比上升。 ...