证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 农化行业：2025 年 9 月月度观察 优于大市 钾肥库存维持低位，磷酸铁开工率提升，草甘膦持续涨价 钾肥供需紧平衡，国际钾肥价格维持高位。我国是全球最大的钾肥需求 国，而钾肥资源供给相对不足，进口依存度超过 60%，2024 年我国氯化 钾产量 550 万吨，同比降低 2.7%，进口量 1263.3 万吨，同比增长 9.1%， 创历史新高。截至 2025 年 9 月底，国内氯化钾港口库存为 172.92 万吨， 较去年同期减少 135.60 万吨，降幅为 43.95%%。未来由于粮食生产安全 愈发被重视，预计国内钾肥安全库存量将提升到 400 万吨以上。9 月国 内氯化钾市场价格小幅下滑，9 月底百川盈孚氯化钾市场均价为 3237 元 /吨，环比上月跌幅为 1.43%，同比去年涨幅 34.82%。国际市场方面， 巴西氯化钾的进口量在今年 1 月至 8 月期间呈现出显著增长态势，累计 进口量已达 1010 万公吨，创下历史新高，9 月份国际钾肥价格维持平稳。 磷化工行业的景气度取决于磷矿石价格的景气度，看好磷矿石长期价格 中枢维持较高水平。近两年来，我国可开采磷矿品位 ...

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，按照申万二级行业 来看，中证石化产业指数前三大行业分别为炼化及贸易（25.60%）、化学制品（23.72%）和农化制品 （19.91%），有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和淘汰落后产能等政策。 每日经济新闻 10月14日，A股三大指数集体高开后涨跌分化，中证石化产业指数高开后震荡，成分股盐湖股份、亚钾 国际、和邦生物、三棵树、云天化、杭氧股份等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）现涨约 0.4%。 华西证券认为，受益于财政货币政策、"两新"政策及"反内卷"政策的稳步推进，需求端增幅有望扩大， 行业供需格局逐步优化，化工行业盈利空间持续打开。大宗商品行业多品种前期估值处于历史低位，具 有高安全边际的同时有望释放高弹性。 ...

就石化化工行业，东方证券表示，中长期看石化化工行业逐渐向好的趋势并未改变。我国产业能力过去 几年飞速提升，虽然这带来阶段性景气度低迷的阵痛，但也有望随"反内卷"政策调控使行业逐渐走出低 迷，进入新的高质量发展周期。因此整体来看，市场对于石化化工行业持续向好的预期并未发生改变。 就化工板块投资思路方面，中原证券指出，一方面建议受益反内卷政策下，供给端改善空间较大，行业 盈利弹性较大的板块，包括农药、有机硅、涤纶长丝行业；另一方面建议关注美联储降息背景下，具有 较强资源属性的钾肥和磷化工行业。 化工板块今日（10月14日）强势反攻！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后一度冲高 1.68%，后逐渐回落，截至发稿，涨0.13%。 成份股方面， 纯碱、钾肥、磷肥及磷化工等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，和邦生物、盐湖股 份、亚钾国际大涨超5%，云天化、杭氧股份双双涨超2%，三棵树、东方盛虹、联泓新科等多股跟涨超 1%。 | | | 分財 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 图加 九粒 图纸 工具 @ (2) > | | 4. TETF 1 | ...

消息面上，国庆后六氟散单报价7.3万元吨，较9月低点上涨15%，部分厂商10月排产已锁满，Q4行业开 工率预计维持85%以上。 规模最大的化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细 分机械等7条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样 本，以反映相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(A：014942；C：014943；I：022792)。 券商研究方面，有关机构表示：（1）6-9月行业主动去库，主流厂商库存降至7天，低于安全库存15 天，Q4减产检修规模超2万吨，占季度供给20%;（2）出口方面，9月六氟出口量环比+22%，日韩电池 厂提前锁单缓解国内淡季需求缺口;（3）成本曲线陡峭，现金成本6.5万元/吨，价格若涨至8.5万元/吨， 龙头单吨净利修复至1.2万元，天际股份4.5万吨产能对应年化利润5.4亿元，2026年PE仅8x，为板块涨价 弹性最大标的;（4）复盘2019-2021年周期，六氟价格领先电解液涨价3-4个月，2026年Q2若锂电需求中 速增长六氟-电解液价差有望复制2021年行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some products seeing price increases while others decline, influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Key products with significant price increases this week include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%), lithium battery electrolyte (up 5.71%), and aniline (up 3.90%), while natural gas saw a notable decline of 7.90% [1][2] - The overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across sub-sectors, largely due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [2] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [2] - Specific recommendations include focusing on the glyphosate sector, which is showing signs of recovery, and selecting companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in the chemical industry, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for their robust market positions [2]

Core Insights - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to maintain reasonable growth while achieving high-quality development, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [1][17][18] - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026, while also pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [1][17] Industry Analysis Petrochemical Industry - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing the supply side of the chemical industry [2][18] - The plan emphasizes the need to strengthen the planning and layout of major petrochemical and modern coal chemical projects, strictly control new refining capacity, and reasonably determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity [2][18] Fertilizer Industry - The plan aims to strengthen raw material supply security and stabilize production foundations for the fertilizer industry, requiring long-term agreements with suppliers of coal, phosphate rock, and natural gas [19] - The plan also encourages the optimization of product structure and the development of new fertilizers [19] Chemical Products Pricing - As of September 28, 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3969 points, down 8.4% from January 2, 2025 [20] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 49.4%, indicating limited improvement in the economic environment, with the production index at 50.8% [20] Investment Recommendations Potash Fertilizer - The global potash fertilizer industry is characterized by oligopoly, with a tight supply-demand balance, and prices are expected to remain high [21] - The company "Yaqi International" is highlighted for its significant potash resources and ongoing capacity expansion, with a projected production capacity of 5 million tons by 2025 [21] Pesticides - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery in prices due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the US [22] - "Lier Chemical" is recommended as a leading company in the chlorinated pyridine herbicide and glyphosate sectors [22] Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of quota systems for refrigerants starting in 2024, with a focus on the long-term price increase of refrigerants [23] - Companies such as "Juhua Co., Ltd." and "Dongyue Group" are recommended for their strong market positions in refrigerants and fluorinated liquids [23] Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - The European Union's mandatory addition of 2% SAF in 2025 is expected to drive up prices for bio-jet fuel products, with "Zhuoyue New Energy" recommended for its competitive advantages in production capacity [24][9]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 17th this week, with a decline of 0.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.16 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.91 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated growth in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was -0.95%, ranking it 17th among all sectors, while the top three performing sectors were power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [22][23] - The top three individual stocks in the chemical sector this week were Bluefeng Biochemical (61.16%), Shangwei New Materials (44.81%), and Huarsoft Technology (31.83%) [28] Key Industry Dynamics - A new plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry was released by seven departments, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [34] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, digital empowerment, and environmental sustainability in the petrochemical sector [34] Investment Opportunities - Synthetic biology is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biological being recommended for investment [4][8] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to upcoming quota policies and stable demand growth from the air conditioning and cold chain markets [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries [6][8] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to enhance the value of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with companies like AkzoNobel being recommended for attention [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as supply tightens and demand increases due to rising agricultural planting intentions [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [5][6][20] Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see stable growth due to the introduction of policies aimed at enhancing industry health and eliminating outdated capacity [5][6] - The demand for viscose filament is anticipated to tighten, leading to an upward trend in prices, while the grass herbicide market is expected to optimize its structure [5][6] - The global GDP growth is projected to remain at 2.8%, with stable oil demand despite some slowdown due to tariff policies [5][6] Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable [5][6] - The coal market is anticipated to experience long-term price stabilization, with easing pressures on downstream sectors [5][6] - Natural gas exports from the U.S. are likely to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5][6] Chemical Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the viscose filament industry will see a supply-demand tightening, with a projected increase in operating rates from 84% to over 95% [5][6] - The grass herbicide market is set to address issues of low pricing and quality through upcoming industry meetings aimed at regulating competition [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [5][6] - Specific companies to watch include Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Lier Chemical, which are expected to benefit from market dynamics [5][6][20] Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating various ratings such as "Buy" and "Increase" for companies like Hailir Chemical, Yunnan Chemical, and Wanhu Chemical [20]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of share reduction by senior executives of Yaqi International, particularly Chairman Guo Baichun, raises concerns about corporate governance and potential risks associated with the company's leadership amid ongoing legal issues involving Guo [1][19][22] Group 1: Share Reduction Announcement - Yaqi International announced that several senior executives, including Chairman Guo Baichun, plan to reduce their shareholdings, with Guo intending to sell 270,000 shares, amounting to over 10 million yuan based on the closing price of 37.14 yuan per share on September 17 [1][17][19] - The total number of shares to be reduced by the five executives is up to 540,000, which represents 0.0591% of the company's total share capital [19][20] - The shares being sold are part of an incentive plan that was implemented in 2022, with the reduction occurring after the expiration of the lock-up period [20] Group 2: Legal Issues Surrounding Guo Baichun - Guo Baichun has been implicated in serious criminal activities, including embezzlement and abuse of power, leading to his arrest and subsequent legal proceedings [1][10][16] - His legal troubles have raised questions about the stability of Yaqi International's leadership and its impact on the company's operations and governance [19][22] - The company has stated that Guo's legal issues are personal and do not affect the company's operations, although the timing of the share reduction has led to skepticism among investors [16][19] Group 3: Company Background and Market Position - Yaqi International is a publicly listed company focused on potash mining and fertilizer production, with significant assets in Laos, including a potash mining right covering 35 square kilometers and a total resource of 1.52 billion tons of pure potassium chloride [9][22] - The company has positioned itself as a key player in the Southeast Asian potash market, benefiting from increasing global demand for potash fertilizers, which is projected to reach 74.3 million tons by 2025 [22] - Despite the governance challenges, Yaqi International's business fundamentals remain strong, with Laos becoming a significant source of potash imports for China [22]

Core Viewpoint - Yara International's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a 90.28% increase, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yara International reported a revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.54% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 855 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 216.64% compared to the previous year [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 25, Yara International's stock was trading at 38.36 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 35.447 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a recent trading volume of 86.8992 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.28% [1]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 132,000 yuan in principal funds, while large orders accounted for 12.44% of buying and 13.38% of selling [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yara International increased to 26,500, up by 8.88% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 8.15% to 30,593 shares [2]. Dividend History - Yara International has cumulatively distributed 85.8774 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 13.8236 million shares as a new shareholder [3]. - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was the ninth-largest circulating shareholder, with a reduction of 179,300 shares compared to the previous period [3].