STARTRADER星迈：PCE或将继续上涨，9月降息预期不变？

Group 1 - The PCE index is considered a more comprehensive measure of economic inflation compared to the CPI, as it includes non-profit institution consumption and dynamically adjusts the weight of goods to reflect substitution effects [2] - The upcoming data will reveal the true extent of tariff cost transmission, with the full chain of cost impact from ports to retail having been completed since spring [2] - Despite signals of a policy shift from the Federal Reserve, high inflation may still limit the space for interest rate cuts, with economists believing that unless the upcoming August CPI shows a significant increase, the Fed's plans for a rate cut in September will remain unchanged [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 0.5% month-on-month in July, driven primarily by a surge in new car sales, with annualized sales reaching 16.4 million vehicles [3] - The growth in personal consumption expenditures is projected to slow down to 1.3% in the third quarter and further to 1.1% in the fourth quarter, influenced by rising prices and the job market [3] - The slowdown in consumer spending, a core driver of the U.S. economy, will directly constrain overall economic performance, leading to a more complex adjustment in the coming months due to inflation pressures and expectations of policy easing [3]