邓正红能源软实力：地缘风险与需求韧性驱动 逆势增购俄油 油价博弈进入新阶段

Core Insights - The oil price dynamics are influenced by geopolitical risks and resilient demand, with current prices ranging from $64 to $69 per barrel reflecting a global energy power struggle [1] - The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories indicates strong demand, while the likelihood of increased Russian supply remains low due to the deteriorating prospects for peace in Ukraine [1][3] - Recent data shows a significant drop in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories by 4.2 million barrels, with refinery utilization rising to 93.5% and gasoline demand reaching a seasonal peak of 9.12 million barrels per day [3] Demand Factors - The demand side of the oil market is showing resilience, with the Hidden Demand Intensity Index (HDI) surpassing the 1.05 threshold, supporting the WTI forward contract premium structure [3] - Emerging markets, particularly India, are increasing their oil imports from Russia, with plans to raise imports by 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in September, reflecting price-sensitive demand elasticity [2][3] - Southeast Asian countries have seen a 6.2% year-on-year increase in refinery capacity utilization, contributing to secondary demand growth [3] Supply Factors - Geopolitical tensions have led to structural differentiation in supply-side dynamics, with Russian supply facing a 15% geopolitical premium due to drone attacks and logistical challenges [3][4] - The OPEC alliance is maintaining a positive geopolitical premium of 8% due to extended production cuts, while North American shale oil supply remains neutral in terms of geopolitical premium [3][4] - The resumption of Russian oil supply through the Friendship Pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia indicates a recovery in logistics after previous disruptions [2] Geopolitical Context - The ongoing conflict has escalated, with Ukraine conducting drone attacks on Russian refining facilities, impacting daily production capacity by 540,000 barrels [4] - The geopolitical soft power index indicates a rising demand hardness coefficient of 0.52, while the supply vulnerability index remains at 0.38, reflecting the balance of risks in the market [4] - Short-term support for Brent crude oil is projected at $69.50 per barrel, with potential price increases to the $72 to $77 range if energy infrastructure attacks escalate [4]