AI能力“非线性提升”，这被市场普遍低估！大摩：90%职业将受影响，就业结构将“根本转变”

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the market is significantly underestimating the speed of "non-linear" improvements in AI capabilities and their disruptive impacts [1][7] - The comprehensive adoption of AI is projected to generate approximately $920 billion in long-term benefits for S&P 500 companies, with potential market value creation ranging from $13 trillion to $16 trillion, exceeding 25% of the expected pre-tax total revenue for S&P 500 companies in 2026 [2][6] Economic Potential of AI Adoption - Morgan Stanley quantifies the economic benefits of AI adoption, predicting around $920 billion in long-term gains for S&P 500 companies and a potential market value increase of $13 trillion to $16 trillion [2][5] - This opportunity is equivalent to over 25% of the adjusted pre-tax total revenue forecast for S&P 500 companies in 2026 [2] Key Beneficiary Industries - The value creation potential from AI is expected to be most significant in essential consumer goods distribution/retail, real estate management and development, transportation, and healthcare equipment and services [8][14] - Manufacturing applications are highlighted as a major area of benefit, with a conservative estimate of value creation that does not fully account for future non-linear improvements in AI capabilities [6] Non-linear Capability Improvements - Morgan Stanley believes that the market generally underestimates the "non-linear" speed of AI capability improvements, which is crucial for generating significant alpha opportunities [7] - The report cites independent AI assessment data indicating that the length of tasks AI agents can complete has been growing exponentially, doubling approximately every seven months over the past six years [7][10] Employment Market Transformation - The report highlights that around 90% of jobs will be affected by AI automation and enhancement, leading to a fundamental restructuring of the employment market [14][16] - Historical precedents show that technological changes, like the introduction of spreadsheets, can eliminate certain jobs while creating new ones, suggesting a similar but potentially more drastic transformation due to AI [14] Job Market Trends - In sectors most impacted by AI, there has been a notable slowdown in hiring for entry-level positions, with software development jobs for 22 to 25-year-olds declining by nearly 20% from late 2022 to mid-2025 [15][16] - Customer service roles are experiencing similar downward trends, indicating a shift in job availability due to automation [15] Cost Efficiency in Manufacturing - Human-like robots are expected to further reduce costs in manufacturing, with AI-enhanced robots costing approximately $5 per hour compared to the average wage of $36 per hour for factory workers in the U.S. [18]