Core Viewpoint - CICC has upgraded the rating of Greentown Management Holdings (09979) to outperform the industry, maintaining a target price of HKD 3.2, reflecting improved front-end operational trends and high dividend yield support [1] Group 1: Front-end Operational Indicators - Positive changes in front-end operational indicators have been observed, with new expansion amount increasing by 19% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, corresponding to a construction fee of RMB 251 per square meter, up 5% year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow net amount increased by 45% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating recovery [2][3] - From January to July, overall construction sales showed resilience, outpacing the top 10 real estate companies by 14 percentage points [2] Group 2: Sales and Cash Flow Performance - From January to July, the company's construction sales amounted to RMB 51.1 billion, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, with improvements in project opening rates and conversion rates [3] - Operating cash inflow for the first half of the year was RMB 110 million, with a year-on-year growth of 45%, and the coverage ratio of operating cash flow to net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28 percentage points to 44% [3] Group 3: Project Expansion and Fee Stability - The company signed new construction contracts worth RMB 5 billion in the first half of 2025, a 19% year-on-year increase, with a stable construction fee of RMB 251 per square meter [4] - As of the end of 2024, the company has RMB 15.2 billion in hand, ensuring overall order coverage remains secure [4] Group 4: Dividend Yield Support - The company has historically emphasized shareholder returns, with a payout ratio exceeding 100% in 2022-2023 [5] - The company aims to optimize its dividend policy, targeting a sustainable return for shareholders, with an expected dividend yield of 9.5% for the year if the dividend per share remains consistent with 2024 [5] Group 5: Potential Catalysts - Gradual stabilization of operations and performance, along with proactive dividend payouts, are seen as potential catalysts for future growth [6]
中金：上调绿城管理控股(09979)至跑赢行业评级 目标价3.2港元