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中金:维持携程集团-S跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至588.5港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-29 03:52

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Ctrip Group's revenue expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained, with an 8% increase in the 2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast to 17.7 billion yuan, and the 2026 non-GAAP net profit forecast remaining at 18.9 billion yuan [1] - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, reaching 14.9 billion yuan, which exceeded market expectations by 1%, primarily due to better-than-expected accommodation revenue [2] - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations by 15%, attributed to controlled marketing expenses and higher-than-expected government subsidies [2] Group 2 - Domestic hotel booking revenue for Q2 2025 was 6.2 billion yuan, a 21% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 3%, driven by higher hotel booking volumes [3] - The company expects a low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night volumes for Q3 2025, despite a generally weak performance in the industry during the summer [3] - The company’s outbound travel bookings for Q2 2025 recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels, continuing to outperform the industry’s flight recovery rate of 84% [4] Group 3 - The international OTA booking volume increased by over 60% in Q2, with Trip.com’s revenue share rising to 14%, and inbound travel bookings more than doubling [5] - Despite increased hotel price subsidies from international competitors in Thailand and South Korea, Trip.com maintained over 70% growth in hotel revenue, indicating effective execution of its differentiated strategy [5] - The company is expected to maintain over 50% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, supported by continued investment in the Asia-Pacific region and expansion in the Middle East [5]