特朗普政府力推米兰9月利率决议前“上桌”，加大美联储鸽派声量

Core Viewpoint - The Republican-led Senate is likely to confirm Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve before the September FOMC meeting, barring procedural issues or unexpected opposition [1][2] Group 1: Nomination Process - The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled a hearing for Miran's nomination on September 4 at 10 AM ET [1] - Democrats privately acknowledge their inability to block Miran's nomination, as they can only delay the process briefly in committee and for a few days during the full Senate vote [1] - Miran was previously confirmed as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers with a vote of 53 to 46, facing no opposition from Republicans [1] Group 2: Political Context - Miran is expected to face tough questioning regarding Trump's actions to dismiss Fed officials and pressure the Fed to lower interest rates [1][2] - The nomination highlights the ongoing impact of the Trump administration on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with attempts to install aligned officials [2] - The market reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, but economists warn that perceived political pressure on the Fed could harm its global credibility [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - If confirmed, Miran may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with the market currently pricing in an 87% probability of this outcome [2] - The potential for increased political intervention in the Fed's operations could lead to higher long-term Treasury yields, as investors may demand a "political risk premium" [2]