兴业银行(601166)：盈利增速回正 转债转股可期

Core Viewpoint - The bank reported a slight decline in revenue but a modest increase in net profit, indicating a stabilization in financial performance despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 110.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [1]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) was 10.1%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates improved compared to the first quarter of 2025, with increases of 1.3, 1.3, and 2.4 percentage points respectively [2]. Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 2% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating steady expansion [3]. - New loans in the first half included 227.1 billion for corporate, -27.9 billion for retail, and -32.3 billion for bills, reflecting a mixed performance across segments [4]. Deposit Trends - By the end of the second quarter of 2025, the bank's interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 2.5% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, with total deposits increasing by 337.5 billion [5]. - The proportion of time deposits rose to 56%, indicating a continued trend towards more stable funding sources [5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for the first half was 36.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, but the decline rate narrowed compared to the first quarter [6]. - The bank's retail assets under management (AUM) reached 5.5 trillion, growing by 8% year-on-year, while corporate wealth management AUM averaged 460.7 billion, up 6.3% [6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank maintained a low non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% and a watch list ratio of 1.66% as of the end of the second quarter [7]. - New credit impairment losses totaled 30.1 billion, a decrease of 4.2 billion year-on-year, indicating improved asset quality management [8]. Capital Adequacy - As of the end of the second quarter, the bank's core Tier 1, Tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 9.54%, 11.3%, and 14.2%, respectively, reflecting a stable capital position [9]. - The issuance of 30 billion perpetual bonds and the conversion of 8.6 billion convertible bonds contributed to strengthening the capital base [9]. Strategic Outlook - The bank's strategic focus remains on "light capital, light assets, and high efficiency," with a commitment to digital transformation and enhancing its service offerings [10]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 77.4 billion, 77.5 billion, and 77.6 billion, with adjusted EPS estimates reflecting the impact of capital increases [10].