丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 1-2 月企业贷款多增，居民降杠杆 ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 10 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周市场风险偏好继续下行，银行指数取得超额收益。虽然创业板指数反弹，但市场波动率较 大，投资者对海外地缘因素造成滞胀风险的担忧上升。红利相关指数基金单周迎来明显净流入， 反映部分机构资金调整配置策略。个股层面，板块呈现普涨态势，业绩预期向好的渝农商行、 杭州银行涨幅居前。当前时点，我们继续看好银行股估值修复，经历半年以上充分调整，PB- ROE 估值低、业绩趋势向好、资金面压力逐步消化。重点推荐浙江省/江苏省/山东省优质城商 行，杭州银行/江苏银行/南京银行/齐鲁银行/青岛银行/苏州银行/宁波银行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 银行 cjzqdt11111 2026-03-1 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20260315 通胀回升的金融影响推导 | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-15 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 可能的金融影响：第一，随着名义经济的回升，长债利率将向上突破震 荡区间上沿。超长端利率上行已经持续一年，十年期国债利率震荡格局 预计也将向上突破。央行结构性货币政策对非银同业活期调整可能是 今年最后一次利率政策工具，考虑到物价逐渐回升环境，货币政策的 "灵活"大概率指的是方向灵活，"高效"可能意味着不再动用价格型 政策工具。第二，金融市场风偏阶段性下降，实物资产名义回报率上升 将驱动资本追逐实体资产，同时名义经济回升也意味着广谱资产流动 性的收缩，流动性驱动的估值扩张可能会变慢，资产市场可能从流动性 驱动转向盈利驱动，这一过程转换可能金融资产会先经历一轮逆风期。 第三，短期看风偏和油价上涨驱动了美元的避险和交易需求，但长期看 资本流向的底层逻辑依然是安全性驱动，中东动荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The frequent changes in bank executives since 2025 reflect a deeper logic aimed at promoting high-quality development within the banking sector [2][8]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Zhang Jingke has been officially approved as the new president of Hangzhou Bank as of February 28, 2025, marking a significant leadership change [4]. - The wave of executive changes since 2025 includes major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, with several banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank undergoing leadership transitions [6][7]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2025, Hangzhou Bank reported total assets of 236.49 billion, an increase of 11.96% year-on-year; total loans of 107.19 billion, up 14.33%; and total deposits of 144.06 billion, rising by 13.20% [5]. - The bank's wealth management subsidiary has over 600 billion in outstanding wealth management products, reflecting a 39% growth compared to the previous year [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.76%, unchanged from the previous year, while the ratios of overdue loans to non-performing loans and overdue loans over 90 days to non-performing loans have decreased by 16.87 and 10.17 percentage points, respectively [5]. Group 3: Underlying Logic of Executive Changes - The banking sector is facing challenges such as rapid financial technology development, intensified market competition, and increasing regulatory requirements, prompting the need for executive changes to facilitate high-quality development [9]. - The shift from a scale-driven to a value-driven model in banking is essential due to adjustments in interest rates and pressures related to deposit migration, necessitating a transformation in profitability and operational logic [9]. - The rapid advancement of financial technology is disrupting traditional banking models, requiring banks to accelerate digital transformation and innovate products and services to meet diverse customer needs [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for investment opportunities [2][11] Core Views - The insurance sector has experienced significant adjustments due to pessimistic narratives surrounding AI, geopolitical conflicts, and investor concerns about the investment performance of the insurance sector. However, the valuation has dropped to historically low levels, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investment [2][11] - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in interest margins due to marginal improvements in both assets and liabilities, with non-interest income likely to recover as the equity market rebounds [3][20] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's index fell by 2.10%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.28 percentage points. The sector has seen a cumulative decline of over 9% this year, with current valuations indicating significant room for recovery [2][11] - The sector's price-to-earnings value (PEV) is at 0.65x for A-shares and 0.42x for H-shares, indicating potential recovery spaces of 53% and 137% respectively [11] - The long-term core logic of improvement in both assets and liabilities remains unchanged, with expectations for dual recovery in valuation and performance as market sentiment improves [2][11] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector index decreased by 1.75%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.94 percentage points. The sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.27x, indicating a significant mismatch between earnings and valuation [17][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market, which will benefit leading brokerages with strong service capabilities [17][18] - Recommendations include focusing on large brokerages with strong fundamentals and low valuations, as well as those undergoing mergers or restructuring [18][19] Banking Sector - The banking sector index increased by 1.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.20 percentage points. The sector's PB ratio is at 0.52x [20][21] - Expected improvements in both asset and liability sides are anticipated to stabilize interest margins, with a projected decrease in the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 40 basis points in 2025 [20][21] - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with non-performing loans in corporate real estate and non-real estate consumer credit anticipated to stabilize at high levels [22][23] - Recommendations include focusing on high-dividend large banks and those with strong recovery potential in performance [23]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 降准降息预期走弱 ——银行资负跟踪 20260315 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 03/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38003646 | nijun@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 林虎 | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_ 相关 ...

2 月资金月报： 受季节因素影响，机构资金流出，散户资金流入较多 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 147,098.51 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 140,825.95 | 辑：定力和底线思维》2026-03-08 净息差保持平稳，净利润增速转正》 2026-02-22 工》2026-02-14 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 13 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 市场资金：理财、公募规模稳步增长，北向资金持仓市值增加。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：邓美君 银行板块个股表现与资金流向：1）板块表现：2 月份银行板块录得下跌-0.55%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 0.64 个百分点，在 31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, remaining stable month-on-month, with total new loans growing by 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong loan issuance [6]. - The total new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the same period in 2025, primarily due to robust loan issuance [6]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed strong growth, with short-term loans increasing by 600 billion yuan and medium-to-long-term loans by 890 billion yuan compared to February 2025 [6]. - The report highlights a trend of "deposit migration," where non-bank deposits grew by 26.13% year-on-year, indicating a shift in asset allocation from deposits to wealth management products [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The banking sector's performance over the last month shows a 2.1% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a 0.2% increase [3]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Several banks are highlighted with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E, all rated as "Buy": - Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH): Price 17.16, EPS 2.91 for 2026E [8] - Nanjing Bank (601009.SH): Price 11.18, EPS 1.94 for 2026E [8] - Shanghai Bank (601229.SH): Price 9.87, EPS 1.74 for 2026E [8] - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ): Price 31.15, EPS 4.76 for 2026E [8] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH): Price 7.20, EPS 1.03 for 2026E [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is positive, with a focus on high dividend low valuation state-owned banks and policy-driven specialty targets [4][5]. Core Insights - The report reveals the deep connection between macro leverage cycles and the differentiation in bank stock performance from 2005 to 2025, identifying five key sectors driving leverage: residents, non-local government financing vehicles, central government, local government, and urban investment [1][11]. - The pricing logic of bank stocks has evolved from growth/model premium to dividend/certainty premium, influenced by three major shifts in macro leverage [1][11]. - The current macro leverage cycle indicates a continuation of government leverage, a reduction in resident leverage, and a focus on high dividend low valuation state-owned banks as new leaders in the market [3][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Leverage Cycle: Underlying Logic of Bank Stock Differentiation - The macro leverage cycle from 2005 to 2025 shows distinct phases, with the first phase (2005-2007) characterized by low leverage and a gradual increase, primarily driven by the resident sector [13][14]. - The second phase (2008-2015) saw significant leverage from government and urban investment, with a notable increase in bank stock performance [14][42]. - The third phase (2016-2021) involved a simultaneous increase in resident leverage and a decrease in non-local government financing vehicles, leading to a focus on retail banks [15][16]. - The fourth phase (2022-2025) indicates a shift where the government becomes the main leverage driver, while residents and urban investment vehicles stabilize or reduce leverage [15][16]. Stock Selection Logic Based on Macro Leverage Cycle - The report establishes a three-dimensional stock selection system: identifying core leverage sectors at the macro level, focusing on fundamental strengths at the micro level, and dynamically adjusting portfolios based on leverage shifts [2][11]. - The recommended stock selection lines include high dividend low valuation state-owned banks, policy-driven specialty targets, and quality regional commercial banks benefiting from structural leverage in non-local enterprises [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning with the current leverage cycle, suggesting three main stock selection lines: high dividend low valuation state-owned banks, policy-oriented targets, and quality regional commercial banks [5][11].

法国兴业银行的利率策略师在一份报告中表示，源自中东战争的石油冲击与该行对2026年德国国债的看 跌观点一致。他们维持3.25%的年终收益率目标不变，并表示，"尽管高点可能会比预期的更早达到"。 他们补充说，期限溢价——即投资者因购买长期债券而非短期债券所寻求的额外收益率——正在继续回 升。在欧元区政府债券方面，如果净卖盘不加剧，这应会提供一些支撑。"最终，大宗商品市场和利率 波动的走势将决定方向。"根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，10年期德国国债收益率周四收于2.944%， 盘中稍早曾触及2.963%的近两年半高点。 ...

2026.03. 12 本文字数：2188，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 "南沙金融30条"出台近一年来，相关政策加快落地，金融机构也积极行动起来。 2025年5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会、国家外汇管理局、广东省政府联合印发《关于金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合 作的意见》（"南沙金融30条"），支持南沙打造立足湾区、协同港澳、面向世界的重大战略性平台。 此后，广州市各部门及金融监管部门驻粤机构快速联动，于去年8月发布了《关于贯彻落实金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见实 施方案》，为政策落地提供了明确"施工图"。 目前，南沙正高标准建设对外开放的多层次体系，并已初步形成银行、期货、资管、保险、融资租赁等多元金融业态集聚发展的态势。尤其是银行业积 极布局南沙，第一财经了解到，部分银行还为此专门设立"跨境金融中心" 。 打造中国式现代化样板区 根据广州市统一核算结果，2025年南沙区实现地区生产总值2402.26亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.8%。规模以上工业总产值同比增长4.7%， 其中，"专精特新"企业表现突出，合计产值同比增长6.4%。 目前，南沙刚 ...