2026.03. 12 本文字数：2188，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 "南沙金融30条"出台近一年来，相关政策加快落地，金融机构也积极行动起来。 2025年5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会、国家外汇管理局、广东省政府联合印发《关于金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合 作的意见》（"南沙金融30条"），支持南沙打造立足湾区、协同港澳、面向世界的重大战略性平台。 此后，广州市各部门及金融监管部门驻粤机构快速联动，于去年8月发布了《关于贯彻落实金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见实 施方案》，为政策落地提供了明确"施工图"。 目前，南沙正高标准建设对外开放的多层次体系，并已初步形成银行、期货、资管、保险、融资租赁等多元金融业态集聚发展的态势。尤其是银行业积 极布局南沙，第一财经了解到，部分银行还为此专门设立"跨境金融中心" 。 打造中国式现代化样板区 根据广州市统一核算结果，2025年南沙区实现地区生产总值2402.26亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.8%。规模以上工业总产值同比增长4.7%， 其中，"专精特新"企业表现突出，合计产值同比增长6.4%。 目前，南沙刚 ...

根据兴业银行股份有限公司（以下简称本公司）2024 年年度股东会关于发 行金融债券的决议，本公司香港分行在 50 亿美元中期票据计划项下，在境外完 成发行 8 亿美元债券，募集资金专项用于符合《兴业银行绿色、社会责任及可持 续发展债券框架（2024 年 6 月版）》资格的绿色资产项目。发行情况如下：债 券类型为美元计价的高级无抵押债券，规模为 8 亿美元，年利率为 SOFR+41BPS， 期限为 3 年。 上述债券自 2026 年 3 月 13 日起在香港联合交易所有限公司上市。 特此公告。 兴业银行股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 12 日 公告编号：临2026-009 A股代码：601166 A股简称：兴业银行 可转债代码：113052 可转债简称：兴业转债 兴业银行股份有限公司 关于香港分行在 50 亿美元中期票据计划项下 发行相关债券并上市的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ...

11 March 2026 | 7:37PM HKT Equity Research CHINA BANKS 5 key themes to watch during earnings season We expect average PPOP and profit growth for our covered banks in 4Q25 to be 4%/3%. As some banks have already released preliminary results (see CMB, BONB, BONJ, Industrial), we believe the focus for the results will be more on the details in the annual reports and the core themes for the banking sector, which are primarily: We expect the overall revenue growth for banks to improve in 2026, but with divergenc ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 川苏冀三省信贷开门红领跑 ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 9 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受地缘冲突等事件因素影响，权益市场波动率加大，部分投资者寻求防御避险，本周红利类资 产上涨，银行股取得超额收益。个股层面，去年以来业绩增速具备弹性的重庆银行大幅领涨， 相似逻辑的厦门银行涨幅居前，同时前期调整非常充分的成都银行、国有大行 A 股领涨，而受 全球市场风险偏好影响的 H 股外资行领跌。当前时点，市场风格存在分歧，而银行股经历半年 以上充分调整，PB-ROE 估值低、业绩趋势向好、资金面压力逐步消化，我们认为当前是年内 银行股的重要买点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 [Table_Summary2] 川苏冀三省 1 月信贷开门红增速领跑 2026 年 1 月全国信贷同比增速继续下行至 6.0%，我们判断信贷总量降速的趋势全年仍将持 续，因此区域分化、大省挑大梁依然是今年信贷投放的核心特征。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a defensive value amidst external uncertainties affecting the A-share market [2][5]. Core Insights - The "Two Sessions" have provided financial signals, focusing on monetary policy, financial risk prevention, and institutional reforms. The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, prioritizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the frequency of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will remain consistent with the previous year, with a lower probability of implementation in the first half of the year. The growth rate of social financing (社融) and M2 may fall below 8% [5][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized, with an expected net investment scale exceeding 540.5 billion in 2025, focusing on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6][11]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The report highlights the successful convening of the "Two Sessions" and the focus on monetary policy and financial risk prevention by the People's Bank of China [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline of 2.30% in the Wind All A Index, while the Shenwan banking sector increased by 1.64% [17]. Data Overview - The central bank's net withdrawal this week was 1.56 trillion, with a decrease in various interest rates, including the Shibor rates [4][25]. - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various banking stocks, including their dividend rates and price-to-earnings ratios [22]. Banking Sector Trends - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is stabilizing, suggesting that revenue challenges for commercial banks may be easing. It recommends focusing on city commercial banks in key development areas and national banks with lower non-performing asset pressures [11].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月08日 2026年03月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：择股篇 优于大市 政策底迈向业绩底，绩优股领衔价值重估 两轮典型银行行情核心驱动因素和主要增量资金：2016-2017 年，基本面拐 点向上驱动的戴维斯双击行情，定价权由 2016 年的万能险过渡到 2017 年的 公募/外资；2023-2025 年，银行业基本面持续下行，但化债大背景下，政策 守住了系统性风险，对公资产质量悲观预期修复，国有大行演变为确定性的 高股息"类债"资产，吸引了保险长线资金配置。同时，中央汇金大规模增 持沪深 300ETF 和上证 50ETF 等，释放了强烈的背书信号，为银行股提供了 极具韧性的估值底，与保险资金共振。 两轮险资主导行情表现差异很大，主要是险资属性以及会计准则的差异。 2016 年是股权分散、更具高 ROE 潜力的中小银行表现更好，2023-2025 年是稳健大行领涨。因为 2016 年以激进万能险为主导，在旧会计准则 （IAS 39）下更在意席位溢价和高 ROE 潜力，偏好当时股权分散且成长 性更好的中小银行。2023-2025 年险资以长线资金为主导，2023 年初开 ...

以下文章来源于兴业银行601166 ，作者兴业银行 兴业银行601166 . 在这里，遇见兴业，读懂兴业，共同兴业！ 兴业银行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一 业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴灌乡土沃野，助 力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动"土特产"蜕变为"大 产业"，为县域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 封图：网络 秋日的山东莱西田间，收割机轰鸣穿梭在金色沃野，种植户捧着饱满的花生满脸笑意；福建晋江的 鞋企车间里，生产线高速运转，新上的设备开足马力赶制订单，"产销两旺"势头正劲......从东南沿 海到西北边疆，从田间地头到车间厂房，一幅"产业兴旺、民生富足、县域崛起"的时代画卷正徐 徐铺展。 郡县治，天下安。县域连接城市和乡村，是我国经济发展的基本单元。党的二十届四中全会提 出，"发展各具特色的县域经济"；中央经济工作会议提出，"推动县域经济高质量发展"。 金融是实体经济的血脉，在畅通县域产业循环、激活地方经济发展活力中发挥着重要作用。兴业银 行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴 灌乡土沃野，助力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Focus - The focus is on the banking industry, specifically the outlook for 2026 and stock selection strategies within this sector [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Thesis for 2026**: The core viewpoint is that "banking alpha" will outperform "beta" in 2026, emphasizing two main lines of stock selection: - **Asset Expansion Line**: Banks with ample low-risk credit projects and a strong presence in economically robust regions will show resilience downward and elasticity upward, particularly focusing on quality regional city commercial banks [1]. - **Real Estate Improvement Line**: The expectation of policy-driven recovery in real estate will benefit shareholding banks that have been under pressure from the real estate sector over the past two years. A stabilization in housing prices in core cities is seen as a direct benefit for these banks, especially those that have proactively managed real estate risks [1]. 2. **Individual Stock Selection**: Unlike the previous two years where bank performance was driven by large banks, this year emphasizes the importance of individual stock selection. If the Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a trend of improvement and the traditional economy recovers, the focus will shift towards finding stocks with growth potential and elasticity [2]. 3. **Market Conditions**: Since Q3 2025, banks have faced more pressure from funding conditions, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in fundamentals. The anticipated absolute returns for the sector remain attractive despite the challenges [2][3]. 4. **Revenue Expectations**: There is an expectation for banks to potentially exceed revenue forecasts this year, particularly with noticeable improvements in net interest income. Risk management strategies are expected to support banks in maintaining asset quality and profitability, which may be better than market expectations [3]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The outflow of index funds does not equate to a bearish outlook on bank investment value. For instance, in late January, index funds saw an outflow of nearly 700 billion, with approximately 80 billion flowing out of the banking sector. However, the active fund holdings in banks are around 60 billion, indicating a complex market sentiment [3]. Additional Important Content - The dividend yield for the banking sector has returned to 4.8%, which is significant for insurance funds looking for stable performance and high dividends [2]. - Specific banks are highlighted for potential investment: - For asset expansion, the focus is on city commercial banks in **Chongqing**, **Suzhou**, and **Ningbo**. - For real estate recovery, banks like **Industrial Bank** and **China Merchants Bank** are recommended [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector, particularly the performance and outlook of listed banks in China for 2026 and beyond. Key Points and Arguments Long-term Capital Inflows - Long-term funds, particularly from pensions and insurance, are expected to increase their equity allocations, supporting the dividend and banking sectors. The pension and insurance equity allocation is projected to rise from 12% to 15%, representing an increase of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan, with a net increase of around 1 trillion yuan after adjustments [2][1]. Market Conditions and Safety Margins - The systemic adjustment in the banking sector since July 2025 is primarily driven by capital outflows, with over half of the impact already absorbed. Current positions in the market are considered to have a safety margin [1][5]. Revenue Growth and Interest Margins - A turning point in revenue is anticipated for 2026, with a projected narrowing of the net interest margin decline to 5 basis points (BP). This is expected to lead to positive growth in interest income across the industry, particularly for joint-stock banks [1][7]. Non-Interest Income Improvement - The bond market is expected to show positive returns in Q1 2026, contributing to a recovery in non-interest income, which had been negatively impacted in previous years [1][9]. Asset Quality Stability - Despite pressures on the provision coverage ratio due to risks in real estate and retail sectors, overall asset quality remains stable and manageable. The focus is on controlling non-performing loans related to mortgages and real estate development [1][10]. Investment Strategy Shift - The investment strategy is shifting away from state-owned banks towards high ROE city commercial banks (e.g., Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank) and undervalued joint-stock banks (e.g., Industrial Bank) [1][13]. Market Volatility and Defensive Assets - Current market volatility, influenced by geopolitical factors, is leading investors to seek certainty in traditional dividend-paying assets like banks. The defensive nature of these assets is becoming increasingly attractive [2][3]. Loan Growth and Credit Expansion - While credit growth is slowing, it is not negative, and banks are still in a phase of expanding their balance sheets. Positive loan growth is expected to support interest income and overall revenue growth [8][9]. Dividend and Profit Growth Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain positive profit growth in 2026, supporting dividend payouts and high dividend yields. The overall growth rate may not be high, but the certainty of positive growth remains strong [11][12]. Valuation and Investment Timing - The current low valuation of the banking sector presents a good buying opportunity for investors. The expected recovery in valuations is anticipated to occur from March to the end of the year [12][13]. Recommended Investment Focus - The focus is on high-quality city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and stable growth, as well as undervalued joint-stock banks with potential for valuation recovery [14][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The banking sector's adjustment has been significant, with a notable outflow of special funds impacting valuations. However, the market is expected to adjust to these changes, leading to a recovery in bank valuations [3][5]. - The overall sentiment among investors remains cautious, but there is a growing interest in undervalued assets as the market stabilizes [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China shows "one addition and minor structural adjustments", reflecting the continuous deepening and normalization of macro - prudential management. The direction and intensity are within the market's expectations, which helps to stabilize expectations and make credit stratification clearer [4][16] - For newly included banks like Zheshang Bank, it reflects increased regulatory attention, which is generally positive. For banks with group downgrades like Industrial Bank, the impact is neutral as it eases capital constraints [4][16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview: Systemically Important Bank List - **Definition**: Systemically important banks represent their significance in the financial system and are required to have higher loss - absorption capabilities. They need to meet additional capital requirements, with higher importance corresponding to higher requirements. The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration regularly evaluate and update the list to prevent systemic risks [2][7][8] - **Evaluation Logic**: The evaluation combines quantitative assessment and qualitative judgment. There are 4 primary indicators and 13 secondary indicators. The score of an indicator is the product of market share and indicator weight. Banks with a score of 100 or above are included in the initial list and are divided into five groups, with higher scores corresponding to higher groups and higher additional capital requirements [2][9][10] - **Adjustment Overview**: From 2021 - 2026, the number of systemically important banks increased from 19 to 21, covering all state - owned banks, most joint - stock banks, and some leading city commercial banks. The list shows a "no - reduction" trend. There have been two group downgrades: Minsheng Bank in 2022 and Industrial Bank in 2026 [2][12] 3.2 Impact: Inclusion Benefits Banks' Market Positioning, and Group Downgrade Has a Neutral Impact - **For Zheshang Bank**: Its first inclusion in the list is beneficial for its market positioning. At the same time, due to the marginal increase in capital constraints and a low safety cushion, the demand for capital instrument issuance may increase. As of September 2025, its core - tier - one capital adequacy ratio was 8.40%, and the regulatory bottom - line requirement increased from 7.50% to 7.75%, leaving a safety cushion of only 0.65pct, the lowest among joint - stock banks. Considering the capital shortage, potential regulatory support, and the maturity of 25 billion yuan of perpetual bonds in 2026, the demand for capital instrument issuance is expected to rise [3][14] - **For Industrial Bank**: Its group downgrade from the third to the second group does not affect its systemic importance. The additional capital requirement decreased from 0.75% to 0.50%, and the capital constraint was marginally eased. As of September 2025, its core - tier - one capital adequacy ratio was 9.66%, with a safety cushion of 1.66pct from the regulatory bottom - line requirement. The impact is neutral as it helps coordinate asset investment and capital adequacy indicators [4][15] 3.3 Summary: Stable with Adjustments, Direction and Intensity within Market Expectations - **Industry Level**: The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China shows "one addition and minor structural adjustments". Along with clear constraints on additional capital and additional leverage ratios and the institutional improvement of the central bank's macro - prudential framework, it reflects the continuous deepening and normalization of macro - prudential management, which helps to stabilize expectations and make credit stratification clearer [16] - **Bank Level**: Compared with changes in group rankings, the marginal impact of inclusion is greater. Newly included banks (e.g., Zheshang Bank) are expected to improve trust among peers and investors. Banks with group downgrades (e.g., Industrial Bank) have reduced additional capital requirements and released marginal capital space [16]