Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have published the list of systemically important banks for 2025, with notable changes including the inclusion of Zheshang Bank as the 10th national joint-stock bank and adjustments in rankings for several other banks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 banks have been recognized as systemically important, categorized into five groups based on their importance scores [3][4]. - The first group includes 11 banks such as China Minsheng Bank and Zheshang Bank, while the second group includes 4 banks including Industrial Bank and China Postal Savings Bank [3][4]. - The list comprises 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks, with Zheshang Bank marking the first time the number of joint-stock banks has reached 10 [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Implications - Being classified as a systemically important bank enhances a bank's credibility and brand image but also necessitates greater resource allocation for internal control and risk management to meet stricter regulatory standards [2][4]. - The additional capital requirements for these banks vary by group, with the first group requiring an additional 0.25% capital and the fifth group requiring 1.5% [5][6]. Group 3: Specific Bank Analysis - Zheshang Bank, which officially opened in August 2004, reported a revenue of 33.248 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.667 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with total assets of 3.35 trillion yuan and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.36% [6]. - The inclusion of Zheshang Bank in the systemically important list is expected to enhance its market reputation and brand influence, while also imposing stricter requirements on its capital adequacy and governance [6][7]. - For Industrial Bank, moving from the third to the second group may alleviate some capital pressure and reduce compliance costs, reflecting a relative improvement rather than a decline in operational performance [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the continued attractiveness of high dividend yields and low valuations for long-term investors [5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a stable growth in scale and a recovery in net profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in net profit for 2025 [9][11]. - The central bank's monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, focusing on structural optimization and financial support for key areas such as domestic demand and small and medium enterprises [7][8]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is impacting the liability structure of banks, but overall liquidity remains stable [8][9]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The central bank's 2025Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and optimizing financial resource allocation through fiscal and monetary policy coordination [7]. - The report indicates that the average weighted interest rate for new loans in 2025 was 3.15%, a decrease of 9 basis points compared to the previous year [7]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.31% compared to a 0.36% increase in the CSI 300 index [5]. - The current price-to-book ratio for the banking sector is 0.64, with a dividend yield of 4.64% [5]. Regulatory and Policy Updates - The banking sector's key regulatory indicators for 2025Q4 show a net profit growth recovery, with total assets increasing by 9% year-on-year [9][10]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.5%, indicating an improvement in asset quality across various types of banks [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with low valuations and high dividend yields, recommending specific banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank [5][39]. - The anticipated continuation of accommodative monetary policy and structural financial support is expected to enhance the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][7].

Core Insights - The list of systemically important banks in China has been expanded for the first time in over two years, now including a total of 21 institutions [1][3] - The new list features two significant changes: Zhejiang Commercial Bank has been newly included, while Industrial Bank has been reclassified from the third group to the second group [3][4] Group Summary - The 21 systemically important banks are categorized into five groups based on their importance scores, with the first group containing 11 banks, including Zhejiang Commercial Bank, and the second group containing 4 banks, including Industrial Bank [4][5] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank's inclusion signals its significant scale and importance, enhancing its reputation among clients and investors, and it will now face stricter capital and leverage requirements [5][6] - Industrial Bank's reclassification to the second group indicates a relative decline in its assessment based on size, interconnectedness, substitutability, and complexity, although this does not necessarily reflect a deterioration in its operations [6][7] Regulatory Framework - Systemically important banks are subject to higher capital and leverage requirements due to their size and complexity, which are crucial for maintaining financial stability [8][9] - The assessment framework for these banks was established in December 2020, focusing on four dimensions: scale, interconnectedness, substitutability, and complexity [9] - The additional capital requirements for these banks vary by group, with the first group requiring an additional 0.25% and the second group requiring 0.5% [10][11]

Group 1 - The stock price of Industrial Bank (601166) has shown a downward trend, closing at 18.49 yuan on February 13, down 1.91% from 18.88 yuan on February 9, with a trading range of 2.76% [1] - The banking sector has performed weakly, with the China Securities Banking Index declining by 0.70%, and Industrial Bank's valuation is at a historical low with a TTM P/E ratio of 5.05 and a P/B ratio of 0.48 [1] Group 2 - Institutional outlook on Industrial Bank is neutral, with a target price of 24.13 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30.50% from the current stock price [2] - Profit forecasts suggest a 0.34% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with growth expected to rise to 2.94% in 2026 [2] - The current institutional ratings are all neutral, with a general market focus, but the high dividend yield of 8.79% and low valuation provide long-term support [2] Group 3 - On February 9, Industrial Bank deepened its green finance initiatives through carbon-inclusive loans and CCUS projects, supporting global projects in Saudi Arabia and Argentina [3] - On February 13, Industrial Bank's leasing arm participated as the sole external funder in China's first distributed photovoltaic REITs project, with a total financing scale of 3.037 billion yuan [3] - Various branch-level collaborations and activities were reported, including a partnership framework with 14 institutions and a public awareness campaign on counterfeit currency [3] - A customer engagement initiative was launched on February 9, offering cashback for monthly spending through WeChat to enhance user loyalty [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration released the list of systemically important banks (D-SIBs) for 2025, expanding the number of institutions from 20 to 21, with Zheshang Bank being the new addition [1][3] - The list reflects a significant internal reshuffling, with Industrial Bank being downgraded from the third group to the second group, indicating a re-evaluation of systemic risk profiles by regulators [3][8] Group Summaries - **First Group (10 Banks)**: Includes China Everbright Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Guangfa Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Beijing Bank [5] - **Second Group (4 Banks)**: Comprises CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Postal Savings Bank, and now includes Industrial Bank [5][8] - **Third Group (3 Banks)**: Contains Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank [5][6] - **Fourth Group (4 Banks)**: Dominated by the four major state-owned banks: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [5][6] - **Fifth Group (0 Banks)**: No banks are currently classified in this group, which has the highest additional capital requirements [10] Zheshang Bank's Inclusion - Zheshang Bank's inclusion in the first group is attributed to its performance across four dimensions: scale, interconnectedness, substitutability, and complexity, achieving a weighted score that meets the threshold [6][11] - As of Q3 2025, Zheshang Bank's asset size reached 3.39 trillion yuan, with a core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rising by 0.02 percentage points to 8.40% [6][11] Industrial Bank's Downgrade - Industrial Bank's downgrade to the second group signifies a reduction in regulatory costs, as the additional capital requirement drops from 0.75% to 0.5%, potentially freeing up hundreds of billions in capital [8][10] - The downgrade reflects a shift in the competitive landscape, where Industrial Bank's relative advantages in market operations may have diminished due to the performance of peer banks [8][11] Regulatory Dynamics - The release of the new list comes after a gap of nearly 18 months, indicating a shift in regulatory oversight and a more cautious approach to data evaluation by the authorities [9][10] - The regulatory framework emphasizes both macro-prudential and micro-prudential management, requiring banks to meet various additional capital and leverage ratio requirements based on their group classification [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have updated the list of Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIBs), increasing the total from 20 to 21, with Zhejiang Commercial Bank being newly included [2][3]. Group Summaries Group 1 - The first group now includes 10 banks, such as China Everbright Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Ping An Bank, reflecting a strong position in the financial system [6]. - Zhejiang Commercial Bank's inclusion in this group indicates its significant role and improved risk profile within the banking sector [4][8]. Group 2 - The second group consists of four banks, including Citic Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Postal Savings Bank, with the addition of Industrial Bank [3][6]. - The adjustment of Industrial Bank to this group signifies a shift in its risk assessment and regulatory requirements [4]. Group 3 - The third group includes three banks: Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, which maintain advantages in cross-regional operations and market coverage [3][6]. - The downgrade of Industrial Bank from the third to the second group reflects a relative loss of competitive edge in the financial market [6]. Group 4 - The fourth group remains unchanged with the four major state-owned banks: ICBC, ABC, BOC, and CCB, which continue to be the backbone of the national financial system [3][6]. - These banks are subject to the highest regulatory scrutiny due to their systemic importance [3]. Regulatory Insights - The update of the D-SIB list demonstrates a dynamic adjustment in the assessment of systemic risk, emphasizing the importance of both macro and micro-prudential regulations [3][7]. - The additional capital requirements for each group range from 0.25% to 1.5%, with the first group facing the lowest and the fifth group (currently empty) facing the highest [7][8]. - The regulatory framework aims to ensure that banks not only meet micro-level indicators but also adhere to macro-level capital and leverage requirements [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted an assessment for the 2025 systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks as systemically important, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1][3] - The list aims to establish a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and strengthen the regulation of systemically important financial institutions [2] Group 2 - Systemically important banks in China are categorized into five groups based on their importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and no banks in the fifth group [3] - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the combined effect of macro-prudential management and micro-prudential regulation, continuing to solidify additional supervision for systemically important banks to promote their safe and sound operation and better serve the high-quality development of the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has conducted an assessment of systemically important banks for 2025, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment Overview - The assessment is part of a broader effort to establish a comprehensive macro-prudential management system and strengthen the regulation of systemically important financial institutions [1] - The evaluation was carried out in collaboration with the National Financial Regulatory Administration [1] Group 2: Classification of Banks - A total of 21 banks were recognized as systemically important, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores: - Group 1: 11 banks including China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - Group 2: 4 banks including Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - Group 3: 2 banks including Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - Group 4: 4 banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - Group 5: No banks were classified in this group [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted an assessment of systemically important banks for 2025, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1]. Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 banks have been recognized as systemically important, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1]. - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group containing 11 banks, the second group 4 banks, the third group 2 banks, the fourth group 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1]. Group 2: Breakdown of Banks by Group - **First Group (11 banks)**: Includes China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1]. - **Second Group (4 banks)**: Includes Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1]. - **Third Group (2 banks)**: Includes Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1]. - **Fourth Group (4 banks)**: Includes Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1]. - **Fifth Group**: No banks are included in this group [1]. Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1]. - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks and better supporting the high-quality development of the real economy [1].