丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 川苏冀三省信贷开门红领跑 ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 9 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受地缘冲突等事件因素影响，权益市场波动率加大，部分投资者寻求防御避险，本周红利类资 产上涨，银行股取得超额收益。个股层面，去年以来业绩增速具备弹性的重庆银行大幅领涨， 相似逻辑的厦门银行涨幅居前，同时前期调整非常充分的成都银行、国有大行 A 股领涨，而受 全球市场风险偏好影响的 H 股外资行领跌。当前时点，市场风格存在分歧，而银行股经历半年 以上充分调整，PB-ROE 估值低、业绩趋势向好、资金面压力逐步消化，我们认为当前是年内 银行股的重要买点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 [Table_Summary2] 川苏冀三省 1 月信贷开门红增速领跑 2026 年 1 月全国信贷同比增速继续下行至 6.0%，我们判断信贷总量降速的趋势全年仍将持 续，因此区域分化、大省挑大梁依然是今年信贷投放的核心特征。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a defensive value amidst external uncertainties affecting the A-share market [2][5]. Core Insights - The "Two Sessions" have provided financial signals, focusing on monetary policy, financial risk prevention, and institutional reforms. The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, prioritizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the frequency of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will remain consistent with the previous year, with a lower probability of implementation in the first half of the year. The growth rate of social financing (社融) and M2 may fall below 8% [5][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized, with an expected net investment scale exceeding 540.5 billion in 2025, focusing on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6][11]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The report highlights the successful convening of the "Two Sessions" and the focus on monetary policy and financial risk prevention by the People's Bank of China [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline of 2.30% in the Wind All A Index, while the Shenwan banking sector increased by 1.64% [17]. Data Overview - The central bank's net withdrawal this week was 1.56 trillion, with a decrease in various interest rates, including the Shibor rates [4][25]. - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various banking stocks, including their dividend rates and price-to-earnings ratios [22]. Banking Sector Trends - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is stabilizing, suggesting that revenue challenges for commercial banks may be easing. It recommends focusing on city commercial banks in key development areas and national banks with lower non-performing asset pressures [11].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月08日 2026年03月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：择股篇 优于大市 政策底迈向业绩底，绩优股领衔价值重估 两轮典型银行行情核心驱动因素和主要增量资金：2016-2017 年，基本面拐 点向上驱动的戴维斯双击行情，定价权由 2016 年的万能险过渡到 2017 年的 公募/外资；2023-2025 年，银行业基本面持续下行，但化债大背景下，政策 守住了系统性风险，对公资产质量悲观预期修复，国有大行演变为确定性的 高股息"类债"资产，吸引了保险长线资金配置。同时，中央汇金大规模增 持沪深 300ETF 和上证 50ETF 等，释放了强烈的背书信号，为银行股提供了 极具韧性的估值底，与保险资金共振。 两轮险资主导行情表现差异很大，主要是险资属性以及会计准则的差异。 2016 年是股权分散、更具高 ROE 潜力的中小银行表现更好，2023-2025 年是稳健大行领涨。因为 2016 年以激进万能险为主导，在旧会计准则 （IAS 39）下更在意席位溢价和高 ROE 潜力，偏好当时股权分散且成长 性更好的中小银行。2023-2025 年险资以长线资金为主导，2023 年初开 ...

以下文章来源于兴业银行601166 ，作者兴业银行 兴业银行601166 . 在这里，遇见兴业，读懂兴业，共同兴业！ 兴业银行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一 业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴灌乡土沃野，助 力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动"土特产"蜕变为"大 产业"，为县域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 封图：网络 秋日的山东莱西田间，收割机轰鸣穿梭在金色沃野，种植户捧着饱满的花生满脸笑意；福建晋江的 鞋企车间里，生产线高速运转，新上的设备开足马力赶制订单，"产销两旺"势头正劲......从东南沿 海到西北边疆，从田间地头到车间厂房，一幅"产业兴旺、民生富足、县域崛起"的时代画卷正徐 徐铺展。 郡县治，天下安。县域连接城市和乡村，是我国经济发展的基本单元。党的二十届四中全会提 出，"发展各具特色的县域经济"；中央经济工作会议提出，"推动县域经济高质量发展"。 金融是实体经济的血脉，在畅通县域产业循环、激活地方经济发展活力中发挥着重要作用。兴业银 行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴 灌乡土沃野，助力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动 ...

聚焦2026年银行业两大选股主线，重申看好银行 1、年初我们旗帜鲜明提出2026银行α优于β的核心观点，而银行α重点围绕两大主线： 1）【资产扩表主线：信贷资源=营收弹性】储备充足的低风险信贷项目、又深耕经济更好的重点区域的银行，向 下有韧性、向上有弹性（今年核心关注PPI趋势）聚焦优质区域城商行； 2）【地产改善主线：地产政策催化修复预期=股份行困境反转】过去两年股份行受地产压制最为明显，若下半年 核心城市房价企 聚焦2026年银行业两大选股主线，重申看好银行 1、年初我们旗帜鲜明提出2026银行α优于β的核心观点，而银行α重点围绕两大主线： 1）【资产扩表主线：信贷资源=营收弹性】储备充足的低风险信贷项目、又深耕经济更好的重点区域的银行，向 下有韧性、向上有弹性（今年核心关注PPI趋势）聚焦优质区域城商行； 2）【地产改善主线：地产政策催化修复预期=股份行困境反转】过去两年股份行受地产压制最为明显，若下半年 核心城市房价企稳、稳楼市信心增强，对股份行是直接利好尤其是近两年已更大力度处置地产风险、业绩更早筑 底的股份行。 退一步，板块股息率重回4.8%，险资优选"业绩稳定+高股息"的银行做配置，这点也不容忽 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector, particularly the performance and outlook of listed banks in China for 2026 and beyond. Key Points and Arguments Long-term Capital Inflows - Long-term funds, particularly from pensions and insurance, are expected to increase their equity allocations, supporting the dividend and banking sectors. The pension and insurance equity allocation is projected to rise from 12% to 15%, representing an increase of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan, with a net increase of around 1 trillion yuan after adjustments [2][1]. Market Conditions and Safety Margins - The systemic adjustment in the banking sector since July 2025 is primarily driven by capital outflows, with over half of the impact already absorbed. Current positions in the market are considered to have a safety margin [1][5]. Revenue Growth and Interest Margins - A turning point in revenue is anticipated for 2026, with a projected narrowing of the net interest margin decline to 5 basis points (BP). This is expected to lead to positive growth in interest income across the industry, particularly for joint-stock banks [1][7]. Non-Interest Income Improvement - The bond market is expected to show positive returns in Q1 2026, contributing to a recovery in non-interest income, which had been negatively impacted in previous years [1][9]. Asset Quality Stability - Despite pressures on the provision coverage ratio due to risks in real estate and retail sectors, overall asset quality remains stable and manageable. The focus is on controlling non-performing loans related to mortgages and real estate development [1][10]. Investment Strategy Shift - The investment strategy is shifting away from state-owned banks towards high ROE city commercial banks (e.g., Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank) and undervalued joint-stock banks (e.g., Industrial Bank) [1][13]. Market Volatility and Defensive Assets - Current market volatility, influenced by geopolitical factors, is leading investors to seek certainty in traditional dividend-paying assets like banks. The defensive nature of these assets is becoming increasingly attractive [2][3]. Loan Growth and Credit Expansion - While credit growth is slowing, it is not negative, and banks are still in a phase of expanding their balance sheets. Positive loan growth is expected to support interest income and overall revenue growth [8][9]. Dividend and Profit Growth Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain positive profit growth in 2026, supporting dividend payouts and high dividend yields. The overall growth rate may not be high, but the certainty of positive growth remains strong [11][12]. Valuation and Investment Timing - The current low valuation of the banking sector presents a good buying opportunity for investors. The expected recovery in valuations is anticipated to occur from March to the end of the year [12][13]. Recommended Investment Focus - The focus is on high-quality city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and stable growth, as well as undervalued joint-stock banks with potential for valuation recovery [14][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The banking sector's adjustment has been significant, with a notable outflow of special funds impacting valuations. However, the market is expected to adjust to these changes, leading to a recovery in bank valuations [3][5]. - The overall sentiment among investors remains cautious, but there is a growing interest in undervalued assets as the market stabilizes [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China shows "one addition and minor structural adjustments", reflecting the continuous deepening and normalization of macro - prudential management. The direction and intensity are within the market's expectations, which helps to stabilize expectations and make credit stratification clearer [4][16] - For newly included banks like Zheshang Bank, it reflects increased regulatory attention, which is generally positive. For banks with group downgrades like Industrial Bank, the impact is neutral as it eases capital constraints [4][16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview: Systemically Important Bank List - **Definition**: Systemically important banks represent their significance in the financial system and are required to have higher loss - absorption capabilities. They need to meet additional capital requirements, with higher importance corresponding to higher requirements. The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration regularly evaluate and update the list to prevent systemic risks [2][7][8] - **Evaluation Logic**: The evaluation combines quantitative assessment and qualitative judgment. There are 4 primary indicators and 13 secondary indicators. The score of an indicator is the product of market share and indicator weight. Banks with a score of 100 or above are included in the initial list and are divided into five groups, with higher scores corresponding to higher groups and higher additional capital requirements [2][9][10] - **Adjustment Overview**: From 2021 - 2026, the number of systemically important banks increased from 19 to 21, covering all state - owned banks, most joint - stock banks, and some leading city commercial banks. The list shows a "no - reduction" trend. There have been two group downgrades: Minsheng Bank in 2022 and Industrial Bank in 2026 [2][12] 3.2 Impact: Inclusion Benefits Banks' Market Positioning, and Group Downgrade Has a Neutral Impact - **For Zheshang Bank**: Its first inclusion in the list is beneficial for its market positioning. At the same time, due to the marginal increase in capital constraints and a low safety cushion, the demand for capital instrument issuance may increase. As of September 2025, its core - tier - one capital adequacy ratio was 8.40%, and the regulatory bottom - line requirement increased from 7.50% to 7.75%, leaving a safety cushion of only 0.65pct, the lowest among joint - stock banks. Considering the capital shortage, potential regulatory support, and the maturity of 25 billion yuan of perpetual bonds in 2026, the demand for capital instrument issuance is expected to rise [3][14] - **For Industrial Bank**: Its group downgrade from the third to the second group does not affect its systemic importance. The additional capital requirement decreased from 0.75% to 0.50%, and the capital constraint was marginally eased. As of September 2025, its core - tier - one capital adequacy ratio was 9.66%, with a safety cushion of 1.66pct from the regulatory bottom - line requirement. The impact is neutral as it helps coordinate asset investment and capital adequacy indicators [4][15] 3.3 Summary: Stable with Adjustments, Direction and Intensity within Market Expectations - **Industry Level**: The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China shows "one addition and minor structural adjustments". Along with clear constraints on additional capital and additional leverage ratios and the institutional improvement of the central bank's macro - prudential framework, it reflects the continuous deepening and normalization of macro - prudential management, which helps to stabilize expectations and make credit stratification clearer [16] - **Bank Level**: Compared with changes in group rankings, the marginal impact of inclusion is greater. Newly included banks (e.g., Zheshang Bank) are expected to improve trust among peers and investors. Banks with group downgrades (e.g., Industrial Bank) have reduced additional capital requirements and released marginal capital space [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report forecasts a social financing growth rate of 8.1% for February 2026, with a total social financing increment of 2.1 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. - It is expected that the total outstanding social financing will reach 451.1 trillion CNY by the end of February, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 0.07 percentage points [4][7]. - The report highlights that credit growth is anticipated to be lower year-on-year due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with corporate credit demand expected to remain flat and retail loans likely to decrease year-on-year [4][7]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Estimates - The estimated social financing stock for February 2026 is 451.1 trillion CNY, up from 449.1 trillion CNY in January 2026 and 417.3 trillion CNY in February 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [7]. - The report predicts a decrease in new RMB loans for February 2026, estimating an increment of 0.5 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. Credit and Bond Financing - The report anticipates a decrease in government and credit bond net financing for February, with government bonds expected to net finance 1.4 trillion CNY, down 0.3 trillion CNY year-on-year [4][7]. - The report also notes that the demand for bank bills is expected to remain strong, with a decrease of 1,000 billion CNY in discounted bank acceptance bills, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2,000 billion CNY [4][7]. Monetary Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of M2 growth, which is expected to remain high at around 9.0% in February, supported by strong government bond financing and improved corporate cash flow [4][7]. - M1 growth is projected to rise to approximately 5.1%, influenced by a low base effect and the reduced impact of deposit migration [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China has been adjusted, with 21 banks recognized, including the addition of Zhejiang Commercial Bank and the reclassification of Industrial Bank [2][4] - The adjustments are driven by a strict evaluation framework focusing on scale, interconnectedness, substitutability, and complexity, with asset size growth being a key factor influencing the rankings [3] - The adjustments will lead to differentiated capital requirements for banks, impacting their operational strategies and capital management [4][5] Summary by Sections Changes in the Current List - The current list includes 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks, categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance [2] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank is newly included in the first group, while Industrial Bank has moved from the third to the second group [2] Main Drivers of Adjustments - The adjustments are based on the "Systemically Important Bank Assessment Measures," focusing on quantitative evaluations of banks' scale and asset growth rates [3] Industry Impact - The adjustments will lead to marginal changes in additional capital requirements, with the first group requiring 0.25% and the second group 0.5% [4] - The changes will influence the competitive landscape, pushing banks to balance growth and risk management while enhancing their operational stability [5] Impact on Capital Markets and Investments - The inclusion and reclassification of banks will benefit creditors and depositors by enhancing debt security and repayment capabilities [9] - For equity investors, the adjustments may stabilize impacts on financing capabilities and market recognition, with potential benefits for banks with strong capital and stable performance [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China has been adjusted, with the addition of Zhejiang Commercial Bank and a reclassification of Industrial Bank [2][4] - The adjustment is driven by a strict evaluation framework based on scale, interconnectedness, substitutability, and complexity, with asset balance being a key factor [3] - The adjustment will lead to marginal changes in additional capital requirements for banks, impacting their operational management and capital allocation [4][9] Summary by Sections Changes in the Current List - The new list includes 21 banks: 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks, categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance [2][13] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank is newly included in the first group, while Industrial Bank has moved from the third to the second group [2] Main Drivers of Adjustment - The adjustments are based on the "Systemically Important Bank Assessment Measures," focusing on quantitative evaluations of banks' scale and asset growth rates [3] Industry Impact - The adjustment introduces differentiated additional capital requirements, with the first group requiring 0.25% and the second group 0.5%, affecting banks' capital management strategies [4] - The changes are expected to enhance the operational stability and asset quality of listed banks, promoting better service to the real economy [5] Impact on Capital Markets and Investment - Inclusion in the list and group adjustments are beneficial for banks' creditors and depositors, enhancing debt security and repayment capabilities [9] - For equity investors, the overall impact is stable, with potential benefits from improved financing capabilities and reduced capital constraints for banks in lower groups [9]