投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 银行 2026年3月18日 息差企稳，把握两条投资主线 --银行业2026年投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：廖志明 资格编号：S1350524100002 邮箱：liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 ◼ 商业银行经营环境：信贷增长乏力，财政支持力度不弱 ➢ 当前商业银行信贷增长步入"重质轻量"的新常态，区别于过往"以量补价"的策略，银行信贷投放注重效益，同时聚焦于国家支持的 产业，这导致了信贷增长有别于过往粗犷的模式，截至2026年2月末人民币贷款增速放缓至6%，信贷需求持续疲弱导致银行扩表乏力。 但财政政策仍保持更加积极的基调，2026年广义赤字率约为8.0%。尽管广义赤字率边际有所下降，但财政效能不仅看当期而要看长期， 2026年财政资金对信贷需求的撬动不弱于2025年，化债或仍持续抑制信贷增速，我们认为2026年人民币贷款增速或回落至6.0%附近。 ◼ 盈利水平逐步企稳，零售风险仍有压力但仍可保持乐观 ◼ 红利逻辑下的组合持股策略 2 ➢ 2025年前三季度上市银行营收、归母净利润增 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Financials - **Context**: The financial system in China is positioned to perform well amid global uncertainties, with a positive development loop expected to support share performance that is less correlated to global markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Development Loop**: Recent data indicates that China's financial system is returning to a positive development loop, supported by moderation in PPI pressure, decent consumption data during the Chinese New Year, and higher-than-expected export growth [2][11][20]. - **Loan Growth and Fiscal Support**: Despite a rationalization in loan growth, the financial system remains stable with reasonable fiscal support, which is expected to cushion potential credit demand shocks [2][18][40]. - **Investment Opportunities**: China financials are viewed as attractive investments due to their less exposure to global market volatility, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions [3][24][25]. - **Sector Performance**: Insurance companies like Ping An and China Life, along with high-growth banks such as Bank of Ningbo, are expected to regain valuation levels of approximately 1.5x P/B over time, with bank dividends attractive at around 5.5% [4][67]. Additional Important Insights - **Manufacturing and Credit Risks**: The gap between manufacturing output growth and capital expenditure has reversed, indicating a slowdown in new risk formation in the manufacturing sector [8][31]. - **Household Financial Health**: Household leverage has declined, suggesting proactive adjustments in consumption and leverage, which supports the resilience of the financial system [32][34]. - **Government Policy**: The recent National People's Congress and the 15th Five-Year Plan indicate a stable policy framework with no significant new stimulus, focusing instead on infrastructure and manufacturing investment [20][21]. - **Market Dynamics**: The national team selling of ETFs and individual stocks has created a better entry point for investors, with banks' valuations returning to attractive levels [58][67]. - **Future Outlook**: A steady nominal GDP growth of around 4% is anticipated to support a rebound in financial asset yields and profit growth in the financial sector, with a gradual recovery expected to start in the second half of 2026 [46][49]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the resilience and recovery of China's financial sector, with various indicators suggesting a return to a positive development loop, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite global uncertainties.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 219 regional banks in Shandong Province, highlighting their asset structure, profitability, and asset quality compared to listed banks [6][21] - The asset growth rate of major city commercial banks in Shandong is 13.5%, which is lower than the 14.2% growth rate of listed city commercial banks [26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is 54.9%, while for rural commercial banks it is 51.6%, both showing a slight year-on-year decline [31] - The profitability metrics reveal that the return on assets (ROA) for city commercial banks in Shandong is 50 basis points lower than that of listed city commercial banks, and the return on equity (ROE) is 3.09 percentage points lower [6][31] - The asset quality of regional banks in Shandong is weaker than that of listed banks, with non-performing loan ratios higher by 21 basis points for city commercial banks and 72 basis points for rural commercial banks [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Shandong Province - Shandong Province is implementing initiatives to enhance its economic development, focusing on green and high-quality growth [13] 2. Overview of Regional Banks in Shandong - Shandong has 219 commercial banks, including 14 city commercial banks, 91 village banks, and 110 rural commercial banks [21] - The report notes that the majority of these banks were established between 2011 and 2015, with 125 banks founded during this period [21] 3. Asset and Liability Structure - The asset growth of major banks has remained stable since 2017, with city commercial banks showing a growth rate of 13.5% in the first half of 2025 [26] - The report highlights that the loan structure is predominantly corporate loans, with city and rural commercial banks having corporate loan ratios of 72.7% and 64.2%, respectively [32] 4. Profitability and Asset Quality - The report indicates that the profitability of Shandong's regional banks is lower than that of listed banks, with city commercial banks' ROA at 0.66% and ROE at 9.43% [6][31] - The non-performing loan ratio for city commercial banks is reported at 1.21%, which is higher than the average for listed banks [31] 5. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratios for city and rural commercial banks in Shandong are reported to be 13.4% and 13.8%, respectively, indicating a sufficient safety margin [6][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a transition towards stable profitability and high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality banks that are expected to recover towards a 1x price-to-book (PB) ratio [7]. Core Insights - The banking landscape has undergone significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan," characterized by a trend towards the dominance of larger banks, with listed banks outperforming non-listed banks in terms of total assets, loans, and net profits [6][19]. - The report highlights three major changes in the banking sector: 1. Increasing concentration among top banks, with listed banks showing superior performance compared to non-listed banks, reflected in a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of approximately 1.2%, which is half that of non-listed banks [6][15]. 2. A shift in market share dynamics, with state-owned banks gaining dominance, while regional commercial banks are accelerating their growth, and shareholding and rural commercial banks are experiencing a decline [6][19]. 3. Niche operations are emerging as a new direction for smaller banks, with wealth management and investment banking becoming areas where leading shareholding banks are outperforming larger state-owned banks [6][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Dominance of Listed Banks - Listed banks have seen their market share in total assets and loans increase to 81.2% and 79.9%, respectively, as of Q3 2025, marking a recovery from declines during the previous "13th Five-Year Plan" [13][14]. - The net profit share of listed banks has risen to nearly 90%, indicating improved operational efficiency [13][14]. 2. Changing Landscape of Various Banks - State-owned banks have increased their market share in total assets and loans to 50.2% and 52.8%, respectively, during the "14th Five-Year Plan," reflecting their enhanced role as a stabilizing force in the economy [19][22]. - Regional commercial banks have improved their market positions, particularly in economically strong provinces, while shareholding and rural commercial banks have faced challenges, with market shares declining [19][22]. 3. Characteristics of Corporate and Retail Banking - The report notes a growing trend of strong corporate lending and weaker retail lending, which has become a key factor in the competitive dynamics among different types of banks [19][22]. 4. Establishment of a Differentiated Development Ecosystem - The report emphasizes the establishment of a "dislocated development and differentiated operation" ecosystem, where larger banks dominate in volume but face challenges in pricing, while smaller banks focus on flexible service offerings to differentiate themselves [6][19]. 5. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes for 2026: 1. Asset expansion, targeting quality regional commercial banks such as Chongqing Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank [7]. 2. Real estate recovery, focusing on shareholding banks that are expected to recover sooner, such as Industrial Bank, Citic Bank, and China Merchants Bank [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights four key reasons supporting the optimistic outlook for bank valuation recovery: the end of capital outflows, historically low fund holdings in banks, high dividend yields, and stable performance expectations for 2026 [10][14][21] - The report emphasizes the strategy of "2026 bank α stronger than β," focusing on stock selection from the bottom up, as the significance of choosing quality stocks has increased in the current market environment [4][27] - The report identifies two major discrepancies in bank fundamentals: the relationship between interest rate cuts and profit declines, and the distinction between risk disposal and the burden on the banking system [27][54] Group 2 - The report indicates that since the second half of 2025, bank stocks have underperformed primarily due to capital market pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as capital outflows have ceased [8][13] - The report notes that the dividend yield for the banking sector has risen to 4.7%, making it attractive for long-term investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [17][21] - The report predicts that the net interest margin for listed banks will stabilize in 2026, with a year-on-year decline expected to narrow to single digits, benefiting from effective risk management [22][25][66] Group 3 - The report outlines two main investment themes for 2026: the asset expansion theme, focusing on banks with strong credit resources and revenue elasticity, particularly city commercial banks, and the real estate improvement theme, which anticipates a reversal of difficulties for joint-stock banks as real estate policies stabilize [32][37][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of banks that have effectively reduced real estate exposure and strengthened their fundamentals, as these banks are likely to benefit from easing pressure on credit costs and achieving stable profit growth [47][48] - The report suggests that banks with a strong ability to manage credit risk and those that have proactively reduced exposure to real estate will be better positioned to recover and outperform their peers [46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a transition towards stable profitability and high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on quality banks recovering towards a 1x PB valuation [7]. Core Insights - The banking landscape has undergone significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan," characterized by a trend towards the dominance of listed banks over non-listed banks, with listed banks showing improved asset quality and profitability metrics [6][8]. - The report highlights three major shifts in the banking sector: the increasing dominance of state-owned banks, the rapid development of city commercial banks, and the ongoing decline in market share for joint-stock and rural commercial banks [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated operations and regional focus for smaller banks to thrive in a competitive environment, suggesting that local banks should leverage their unique advantages to capture market potential [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Dominance of Listed Banks - Listed banks have seen a rise in market share for total assets, loans, and net profits, with total assets and loans reaching 81.2% and 79.9% respectively by Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery from previous declines during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [17][18]. - The net profit share of listed banks has increased to nearly 90%, indicating better operational efficiency compared to non-listed banks [17][18]. 2. Changing Landscape of Various Banks - State-owned banks have strengthened their market position, with total assets and loan market shares increasing to 50.2% and 52.8% respectively, while joint-stock banks have faced challenges, with their market shares declining [22][26]. - City commercial banks have benefited from regional development, with their market shares in total assets, loans, and net profits rising to 16.2%, 14.5%, and 12.1% respectively [22][24]. 3. Characteristics of Corporate and Retail Banking - The report notes a growing trend of strong corporate lending and weaker retail lending, which has become a key factor for the leading performance of state-owned and city commercial banks [6][22]. - The report also highlights the need for banks to balance pricing and efficiency, especially as large banks dominate key sectors while smaller banks focus on flexible service offerings [6][8]. 4. Establishment of a Differentiated Operating Ecosystem - The report discusses the establishment of a "dislocated development and differentiated operation" ecosystem, where large banks dominate in volume but face challenges in pricing, while smaller banks focus on niche markets [6][8]. - Wealth management and investment banking sectors are increasingly led by top joint-stock banks, which have surpassed state-owned banks in market share [6][8]. 5. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes for 2026: the expansion of asset portfolios in quality city commercial banks like Chongqing Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, and the recovery of joint-stock banks like Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and China Merchants Bank [7][8].

格隆汇3月16日｜法国兴业银行指出，由于近期的涨势停滞，美元兑一篮子货币的汇率出现下跌，不过 跌幅预计会有限。在美元指数于周五创下逾九个月来的最高点后，看多美元的仓位看起来已经过度了。 外汇市场正出现美元复苏的逆转态势。不过，很难看到欧元或英镑兑美元会有更持久的反弹。美元通常 会因能源价格上涨而受益，因为美国是石油净出口国，同时也会因投资者寻求避险资产的需求而受益。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 1-2 月企业贷款多增，居民降杠杆 ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 10 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周市场风险偏好继续下行，银行指数取得超额收益。虽然创业板指数反弹，但市场波动率较 大，投资者对海外地缘因素造成滞胀风险的担忧上升。红利相关指数基金单周迎来明显净流入， 反映部分机构资金调整配置策略。个股层面，板块呈现普涨态势，业绩预期向好的渝农商行、 杭州银行涨幅居前。当前时点，我们继续看好银行股估值修复，经历半年以上充分调整，PB- ROE 估值低、业绩趋势向好、资金面压力逐步消化。重点推荐浙江省/江苏省/山东省优质城商 行，杭州银行/江苏银行/南京银行/齐鲁银行/青岛银行/苏州银行/宁波银行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 银行 cjzqdt11111 2026-03-1 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20260315 通胀回升的金融影响推导 | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-15 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 可能的金融影响：第一，随着名义经济的回升，长债利率将向上突破震 荡区间上沿。超长端利率上行已经持续一年，十年期国债利率震荡格局 预计也将向上突破。央行结构性货币政策对非银同业活期调整可能是 今年最后一次利率政策工具，考虑到物价逐渐回升环境，货币政策的 "灵活"大概率指的是方向灵活，"高效"可能意味着不再动用价格型 政策工具。第二，金融市场风偏阶段性下降，实物资产名义回报率上升 将驱动资本追逐实体资产，同时名义经济回升也意味着广谱资产流动 性的收缩，流动性驱动的估值扩张可能会变慢，资产市场可能从流动性 驱动转向盈利驱动，这一过程转换可能金融资产会先经历一轮逆风期。 第三，短期看风偏和油价上涨驱动了美元的避险和交易需求，但长期看 资本流向的底层逻辑依然是安全性驱动，中东动荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The frequent changes in bank executives since 2025 reflect a deeper logic aimed at promoting high-quality development within the banking sector [2][8]. Group 1: Executive Changes - Zhang Jingke has been officially approved as the new president of Hangzhou Bank as of February 28, 2025, marking a significant leadership change [4]. - The wave of executive changes since 2025 includes major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, with several banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank undergoing leadership transitions [6][7]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2025, Hangzhou Bank reported total assets of 236.49 billion, an increase of 11.96% year-on-year; total loans of 107.19 billion, up 14.33%; and total deposits of 144.06 billion, rising by 13.20% [5]. - The bank's wealth management subsidiary has over 600 billion in outstanding wealth management products, reflecting a 39% growth compared to the previous year [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.76%, unchanged from the previous year, while the ratios of overdue loans to non-performing loans and overdue loans over 90 days to non-performing loans have decreased by 16.87 and 10.17 percentage points, respectively [5]. Group 3: Underlying Logic of Executive Changes - The banking sector is facing challenges such as rapid financial technology development, intensified market competition, and increasing regulatory requirements, prompting the need for executive changes to facilitate high-quality development [9]. - The shift from a scale-driven to a value-driven model in banking is essential due to adjustments in interest rates and pressures related to deposit migration, necessitating a transformation in profitability and operational logic [9]. - The rapid advancement of financial technology is disrupting traditional banking models, requiring banks to accelerate digital transformation and innovate products and services to meet diverse customer needs [9].