法国兴业银行的利率策略师在一份报告中表示，源自中东战争的石油冲击与该行对2026年德国国债的看 跌观点一致。他们维持3.25%的年终收益率目标不变，并表示，"尽管高点可能会比预期的更早达到"。 他们补充说，期限溢价——即投资者因购买长期债券而非短期债券所寻求的额外收益率——正在继续回 升。在欧元区政府债券方面，如果净卖盘不加剧，这应会提供一些支撑。"最终，大宗商品市场和利率 波动的走势将决定方向。"根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，10年期德国国债收益率周四收于2.944%， 盘中稍早曾触及2.963%的近两年半高点。 ...

2026.03. 12 本文字数：2188，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 "南沙金融30条"出台近一年来，相关政策加快落地，金融机构也积极行动起来。 2025年5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会、国家外汇管理局、广东省政府联合印发《关于金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合 作的意见》（"南沙金融30条"），支持南沙打造立足湾区、协同港澳、面向世界的重大战略性平台。 此后，广州市各部门及金融监管部门驻粤机构快速联动，于去年8月发布了《关于贯彻落实金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见实 施方案》，为政策落地提供了明确"施工图"。 目前，南沙正高标准建设对外开放的多层次体系，并已初步形成银行、期货、资管、保险、融资租赁等多元金融业态集聚发展的态势。尤其是银行业积 极布局南沙，第一财经了解到，部分银行还为此专门设立"跨境金融中心" 。 打造中国式现代化样板区 根据广州市统一核算结果，2025年南沙区实现地区生产总值2402.26亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.8%。规模以上工业总产值同比增长4.7%， 其中，"专精特新"企业表现突出，合计产值同比增长6.4%。 目前，南沙刚 ...

根据兴业银行股份有限公司（以下简称本公司）2024 年年度股东会关于发 行金融债券的决议，本公司香港分行在 50 亿美元中期票据计划项下，在境外完 成发行 8 亿美元债券，募集资金专项用于符合《兴业银行绿色、社会责任及可持 续发展债券框架（2024 年 6 月版）》资格的绿色资产项目。发行情况如下：债 券类型为美元计价的高级无抵押债券，规模为 8 亿美元，年利率为 SOFR+41BPS， 期限为 3 年。 上述债券自 2026 年 3 月 13 日起在香港联合交易所有限公司上市。 特此公告。 兴业银行股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 12 日 公告编号：临2026-009 A股代码：601166 A股简称：兴业银行 可转债代码：113052 可转债简称：兴业转债 兴业银行股份有限公司 关于香港分行在 50 亿美元中期票据计划项下 发行相关债券并上市的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector in China, particularly the performance of covered banks during the earnings season for 4Q25 and the outlook for 2026 [1][4][30]. Core Themes and Financial Projections - **Profitability Expectations**: Average Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) growth for covered banks in 4Q25 is expected to be 4%, with profit growth projected at 3% [1][6]. - **Revenue Growth**: Overall revenue growth for banks is anticipated to improve in 2026, although profit growth will show divergence among banks [1][30]. - **Stock Recommendations**: CMB is recommended as a stock with high dividends and high EPS growth, maintaining a Buy rating with revised target prices of Rmb 54.71/HK$ 53.44 for A/H shares [1][30]. Key Financial Metrics - **Net Interest Margin (NIM)**: Expected to stabilize around 1.35% in 2026/2027 after a slight decline from 1.39% in 2025. The average decline for covered banks is projected to narrow to -6/-6 basis points YoY in 4Q25/1Q26 [8][11][30]. - **Loan Growth**: Anticipated to remain stable at 8% YoY in 2026, with specific banks like CMB and PAB expected to see loan growth of 7% and 6% respectively [24][25][30]. Consumer Finance and Fee Income - **Consumer Finance Recovery**: Expected to support loan growth, with banks forecasting better retail loan growth in 2026 compared to 2025. However, the sluggish property market may keep retail loan growth under pressure in the short term [32][36]. - **Fee Income Growth**: Projected to be 16% YoY in 4Q25 and 7% YoY in 2026 for covered banks, driven by a recovery in capital market-related fee income [38][47]. Asset Quality and Provisions - **Retail NPL Ratios**: Retail Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios are rising, but banks that have proactively managed retail risks may see a quicker recovery. For instance, PAB's retail NPL ratio has declined [53][57]. - **Mortgage Loans**: Considered high-quality assets with low default rates, although NPL ratios are on an upward trend. The focus will be on banks achieving positive mortgage growth despite weak property sales [54][61]. Investment Income and Revenue Sensitivity - **Investment Income**: Expected to show YoY negative growth in 4Q25 due to a high base effect, but a QoQ rebound is anticipated in 1Q26 driven by bond investments and slight interest rate declines [65][69]. - **Reduced Sensitivity**: The impact of investment income on bank revenue is expected to diminish, with forecasts indicating flat growth in 2026/27 [66][68]. Conclusion - The banking sector in China is poised for a mixed performance in 2026, with expectations of improved revenue growth but divergent profit growth among banks. Key areas of focus include consumer finance recovery, asset quality management, and the stabilization of NIM.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience amid increased market volatility due to geopolitical conflicts, with dividend assets rising and bank stocks achieving excess returns. Notably, Chongqing Bank and Xiamen Bank have led the gains, while H-shares of foreign banks have lagged. The current market conditions suggest that it is an important buying opportunity for bank stocks this year, especially after a prolonged adjustment period [2][8][18] - In January 2026, the national credit growth rate continued to decline to 6.0%, with significant regional disparities. Sichuan and Jiangsu provinces exhibited high loan growth rates of 9.9% and 9.3%, respectively, which are well above the national average. The trend indicates that large provinces are taking the lead in credit issuance [6][40] - Corporate loans in major provinces are growing at rates above 11%, with Jiangsu and Sichuan reaching 13.8% and 13.2%. This reflects the effectiveness of local governments in promoting new productive forces and increasing investment. Retail loans, however, show a contrasting trend with larger provinces experiencing declines while smaller provinces see growth [7][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index rose by 1.6% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.7% and 4.0%, respectively. The market is experiencing a divergence in style, with bank stocks showing low PB-ROE valuations and improving performance trends [8][18] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.23%, which is attractive compared to the 10-year government bond yield spread of 245 basis points. The average yield for H-shares has increased to 5.35%, with a discount rate of 21% compared to A-shares [9][26] Credit Growth Analysis - The credit growth in January 2026 indicates a continued downward trend, with significant contributions from Sichuan and Jiangsu provinces. The corporate loan growth reflects the ongoing transition to new economic drivers, while retail loan growth varies significantly across regions [40][41] - The market is witnessing a shift in funding styles, with bank-related index funds experiencing a net inflow of 400 million yuan after two weeks of outflows, indicating a potential change in investment strategy [20][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Nanjing Bank. It also suggests paying attention to low-valuation, high-dividend banks like Industrial Bank, which has significant potential for convertible bond conversion [18][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a defensive value amidst external uncertainties affecting the A-share market [2][5]. Core Insights - The "Two Sessions" have provided financial signals, focusing on monetary policy, financial risk prevention, and institutional reforms. The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, prioritizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the frequency of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will remain consistent with the previous year, with a lower probability of implementation in the first half of the year. The growth rate of social financing (社融) and M2 may fall below 8% [5][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized, with an expected net investment scale exceeding 540.5 billion in 2025, focusing on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6][11]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The report highlights the successful convening of the "Two Sessions" and the focus on monetary policy and financial risk prevention by the People's Bank of China [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline of 2.30% in the Wind All A Index, while the Shenwan banking sector increased by 1.64% [17]. Data Overview - The central bank's net withdrawal this week was 1.56 trillion, with a decrease in various interest rates, including the Shibor rates [4][25]. - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various banking stocks, including their dividend rates and price-to-earnings ratios [22]. Banking Sector Trends - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is stabilizing, suggesting that revenue challenges for commercial banks may be easing. It recommends focusing on city commercial banks in key development areas and national banks with lower non-performing asset pressures [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to transition from a policy bottom to an earnings bottom, with high-quality stocks leading the value reassessment [1]. - The economic environment in 2026 is anticipated to resemble the second half of 2016, with a strong expectation for a bottoming out of the banking sector's fundamentals, although no clear upward momentum is seen yet [2]. - The pricing power of bank stocks is expected to gradually shift from insurance capital and central Huijin to public and foreign funds in 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The banking sector has experienced two significant market cycles: 2016-2017 driven by a fundamental upturn and 2023-2025 characterized by defensive strategies led by insurance and ETF investments [11][12]. Fundamental Outlook - The banking sector's fundamentals are expected to stabilize, with a projected annual earnings growth of 3.0% for 2026 [8][52]. - The net interest margin has been under pressure, with a decline from approximately 2.09% in early 2022 to 1.41% in the first three quarters of 2025 [54]. Funding Outlook - Insurance capital remains the most stable and sustainable core allocation in the banking sector, although marginal growth is slowing [3]. - Central Huijin's strategy has shifted from aggressively increasing ETF holdings to a more neutral approach, while public funds are expected to adopt a structural allocation strategy [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests selecting stocks with recovery potential, emphasizing the importance of high-dividend, stable stocks while maintaining a focus on quality recovery stocks [3][4]. - Key recommendations include China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, Changsha Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, with a focus on Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Industrial Bank as stable core holdings [3][4].

以下文章来源于兴业银行601166 ，作者兴业银行 兴业银行601166 . 在这里，遇见兴业，读懂兴业，共同兴业！ 兴业银行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一 业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴灌乡土沃野，助 力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动"土特产"蜕变为"大 产业"，为县域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 封图：网络 秋日的山东莱西田间，收割机轰鸣穿梭在金色沃野，种植户捧着饱满的花生满脸笑意；福建晋江的 鞋企车间里，生产线高速运转，新上的设备开足马力赶制订单，"产销两旺"势头正劲......从东南沿 海到西北边疆，从田间地头到车间厂房，一幅"产业兴旺、民生富足、县域崛起"的时代画卷正徐 徐铺展。 郡县治，天下安。县域连接城市和乡村，是我国经济发展的基本单元。党的二十届四中全会提 出，"发展各具特色的县域经济"；中央经济工作会议提出，"推动县域经济高质量发展"。 金融是实体经济的血脉，在畅通县域产业循环、激活地方经济发展活力中发挥着重要作用。兴业银 行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴 灌乡土沃野，助力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Focus - The focus is on the banking industry, specifically the outlook for 2026 and stock selection strategies within this sector [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Thesis for 2026**: The core viewpoint is that "banking alpha" will outperform "beta" in 2026, emphasizing two main lines of stock selection: - **Asset Expansion Line**: Banks with ample low-risk credit projects and a strong presence in economically robust regions will show resilience downward and elasticity upward, particularly focusing on quality regional city commercial banks [1]. - **Real Estate Improvement Line**: The expectation of policy-driven recovery in real estate will benefit shareholding banks that have been under pressure from the real estate sector over the past two years. A stabilization in housing prices in core cities is seen as a direct benefit for these banks, especially those that have proactively managed real estate risks [1]. 2. **Individual Stock Selection**: Unlike the previous two years where bank performance was driven by large banks, this year emphasizes the importance of individual stock selection. If the Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a trend of improvement and the traditional economy recovers, the focus will shift towards finding stocks with growth potential and elasticity [2]. 3. **Market Conditions**: Since Q3 2025, banks have faced more pressure from funding conditions, but there is an expectation of marginal improvement in fundamentals. The anticipated absolute returns for the sector remain attractive despite the challenges [2][3]. 4. **Revenue Expectations**: There is an expectation for banks to potentially exceed revenue forecasts this year, particularly with noticeable improvements in net interest income. Risk management strategies are expected to support banks in maintaining asset quality and profitability, which may be better than market expectations [3]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The outflow of index funds does not equate to a bearish outlook on bank investment value. For instance, in late January, index funds saw an outflow of nearly 700 billion, with approximately 80 billion flowing out of the banking sector. However, the active fund holdings in banks are around 60 billion, indicating a complex market sentiment [3]. Additional Important Content - The dividend yield for the banking sector has returned to 4.8%, which is significant for insurance funds looking for stable performance and high dividends [2]. - Specific banks are highlighted for potential investment: - For asset expansion, the focus is on city commercial banks in **Chongqing**, **Suzhou**, and **Ningbo**. - For real estate recovery, banks like **Industrial Bank** and **China Merchants Bank** are recommended [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector, particularly the performance and outlook of listed banks in China for 2026 and beyond. Key Points and Arguments Long-term Capital Inflows - Long-term funds, particularly from pensions and insurance, are expected to increase their equity allocations, supporting the dividend and banking sectors. The pension and insurance equity allocation is projected to rise from 12% to 15%, representing an increase of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan, with a net increase of around 1 trillion yuan after adjustments [2][1]. Market Conditions and Safety Margins - The systemic adjustment in the banking sector since July 2025 is primarily driven by capital outflows, with over half of the impact already absorbed. Current positions in the market are considered to have a safety margin [1][5]. Revenue Growth and Interest Margins - A turning point in revenue is anticipated for 2026, with a projected narrowing of the net interest margin decline to 5 basis points (BP). This is expected to lead to positive growth in interest income across the industry, particularly for joint-stock banks [1][7]. Non-Interest Income Improvement - The bond market is expected to show positive returns in Q1 2026, contributing to a recovery in non-interest income, which had been negatively impacted in previous years [1][9]. Asset Quality Stability - Despite pressures on the provision coverage ratio due to risks in real estate and retail sectors, overall asset quality remains stable and manageable. The focus is on controlling non-performing loans related to mortgages and real estate development [1][10]. Investment Strategy Shift - The investment strategy is shifting away from state-owned banks towards high ROE city commercial banks (e.g., Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank) and undervalued joint-stock banks (e.g., Industrial Bank) [1][13]. Market Volatility and Defensive Assets - Current market volatility, influenced by geopolitical factors, is leading investors to seek certainty in traditional dividend-paying assets like banks. The defensive nature of these assets is becoming increasingly attractive [2][3]. Loan Growth and Credit Expansion - While credit growth is slowing, it is not negative, and banks are still in a phase of expanding their balance sheets. Positive loan growth is expected to support interest income and overall revenue growth [8][9]. Dividend and Profit Growth Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain positive profit growth in 2026, supporting dividend payouts and high dividend yields. The overall growth rate may not be high, but the certainty of positive growth remains strong [11][12]. Valuation and Investment Timing - The current low valuation of the banking sector presents a good buying opportunity for investors. The expected recovery in valuations is anticipated to occur from March to the end of the year [12][13]. Recommended Investment Focus - The focus is on high-quality city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and stable growth, as well as undervalued joint-stock banks with potential for valuation recovery [14][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The banking sector's adjustment has been significant, with a notable outflow of special funds impacting valuations. However, the market is expected to adjust to these changes, leading to a recovery in bank valuations [3][5]. - The overall sentiment among investors remains cautious, but there is a growing interest in undervalued assets as the market stabilizes [12][13].