公告编号：临2026-010 A股代码：601166 A股简称：兴业银行 可转债代码：113052 可转债简称：兴业转债 兴业银行股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2026 年 3 月 27 日（星期五）上午 10:00-12:00 会议召开方式：本次会议通过现场会议及网络直播方式召开，投资者可 以登录上证路演中心，全景网路演平台，兴业银行手机银行官方客户端观看本次 业绩说明会。 网络直播地址： 上证路演中心（中/英）：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com 全景网（中文）：https://wxly.p5w.net/roadshow/177367178339443.html 全景网（英文）：https://wxly.p5w.net/roadshow/177367206792729.html 投资者可于 2026 年 3 月 20 日（星期五）至 3 月 26 日（星期四）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页， ...

Group 1 - The banking operating environment is characterized by a shift to a "quality over quantity" approach in credit growth, with a slowdown in RMB loan growth to 6% as of February 2026, influenced by weak credit demand and a focus on state-supported industries [4][14] - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a projected general deficit rate of approximately 8.0% in 2026, which is expected to maintain a strong leverage effect on credit demand similar to 2025 [31][32] - The profitability of banks is gradually stabilizing, with state-owned banks showing positive profit growth due to fiscal policies, while smaller banks face operational pressures [7][35] Group 2 - Retail credit risk remains under pressure, with an increase in non-performing loans, particularly among smaller banks, although there is optimism for state-owned banks' asset quality [7][26] - The investment strategy emphasizes two main lines: focusing on wealth management capabilities in joint-stock banks and identifying city and rural commercial banks with controllable risks and strong profit certainty [6][35] - The credit growth momentum is shifting from traditional industries to emerging sectors supported by government policies, with significant growth in loans to green and high-tech enterprises [19][20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Financials - **Context**: The financial system in China is positioned to perform well amid global uncertainties, with a positive development loop expected to support share performance that is less correlated to global markets [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Development Loop**: Recent data indicates that China's financial system is returning to a positive development loop, supported by moderation in PPI pressure, decent consumption data during the Chinese New Year, and higher-than-expected export growth [2][11][20]. - **Loan Growth and Fiscal Support**: Despite a rationalization in loan growth, the financial system remains stable with reasonable fiscal support, which is expected to cushion potential credit demand shocks [2][18][40]. - **Investment Opportunities**: China financials are viewed as attractive investments due to their less exposure to global market volatility, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions [3][24][25]. - **Sector Performance**: Insurance companies like Ping An and China Life, along with high-growth banks such as Bank of Ningbo, are expected to regain valuation levels of approximately 1.5x P/B over time, with bank dividends attractive at around 5.5% [4][67]. Additional Important Insights - **Manufacturing and Credit Risks**: The gap between manufacturing output growth and capital expenditure has reversed, indicating a slowdown in new risk formation in the manufacturing sector [8][31]. - **Household Financial Health**: Household leverage has declined, suggesting proactive adjustments in consumption and leverage, which supports the resilience of the financial system [32][34]. - **Government Policy**: The recent National People's Congress and the 15th Five-Year Plan indicate a stable policy framework with no significant new stimulus, focusing instead on infrastructure and manufacturing investment [20][21]. - **Market Dynamics**: The national team selling of ETFs and individual stocks has created a better entry point for investors, with banks' valuations returning to attractive levels [58][67]. - **Future Outlook**: A steady nominal GDP growth of around 4% is anticipated to support a rebound in financial asset yields and profit growth in the financial sector, with a gradual recovery expected to start in the second half of 2026 [46][49]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the resilience and recovery of China's financial sector, with various indicators suggesting a return to a positive development loop, making it an attractive investment opportunity despite global uncertainties.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 219 regional banks in Shandong Province, highlighting their asset structure, profitability, and asset quality compared to listed banks [6][21] - The asset growth rate of major city commercial banks in Shandong is 13.5%, which is lower than the 14.2% growth rate of listed city commercial banks [26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is 54.9%, while for rural commercial banks it is 51.6%, both showing a slight year-on-year decline [31] - The profitability metrics reveal that the return on assets (ROA) for city commercial banks in Shandong is 50 basis points lower than that of listed city commercial banks, and the return on equity (ROE) is 3.09 percentage points lower [6][31] - The asset quality of regional banks in Shandong is weaker than that of listed banks, with non-performing loan ratios higher by 21 basis points for city commercial banks and 72 basis points for rural commercial banks [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Shandong Province - Shandong Province is implementing initiatives to enhance its economic development, focusing on green and high-quality growth [13] 2. Overview of Regional Banks in Shandong - Shandong has 219 commercial banks, including 14 city commercial banks, 91 village banks, and 110 rural commercial banks [21] - The report notes that the majority of these banks were established between 2011 and 2015, with 125 banks founded during this period [21] 3. Asset and Liability Structure - The asset growth of major banks has remained stable since 2017, with city commercial banks showing a growth rate of 13.5% in the first half of 2025 [26] - The report highlights that the loan structure is predominantly corporate loans, with city and rural commercial banks having corporate loan ratios of 72.7% and 64.2%, respectively [32] 4. Profitability and Asset Quality - The report indicates that the profitability of Shandong's regional banks is lower than that of listed banks, with city commercial banks' ROA at 0.66% and ROE at 9.43% [6][31] - The non-performing loan ratio for city commercial banks is reported at 1.21%, which is higher than the average for listed banks [31] 5. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratios for city and rural commercial banks in Shandong are reported to be 13.4% and 13.8%, respectively, indicating a sufficient safety margin [6][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a transition towards stable profitability and high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality banks that are expected to recover towards a 1x price-to-book (PB) ratio [7]. Core Insights - The banking landscape has undergone significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan," characterized by a trend towards the dominance of larger banks, with listed banks outperforming non-listed banks in terms of total assets, loans, and net profits [6][19]. - The report highlights three major changes in the banking sector: 1. Increasing concentration among top banks, with listed banks showing superior performance compared to non-listed banks, reflected in a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of approximately 1.2%, which is half that of non-listed banks [6][15]. 2. A shift in market share dynamics, with state-owned banks gaining dominance, while regional commercial banks are accelerating their growth, and shareholding and rural commercial banks are experiencing a decline [6][19]. 3. Niche operations are emerging as a new direction for smaller banks, with wealth management and investment banking becoming areas where leading shareholding banks are outperforming larger state-owned banks [6][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Dominance of Listed Banks - Listed banks have seen their market share in total assets and loans increase to 81.2% and 79.9%, respectively, as of Q3 2025, marking a recovery from declines during the previous "13th Five-Year Plan" [13][14]. - The net profit share of listed banks has risen to nearly 90%, indicating improved operational efficiency [13][14]. 2. Changing Landscape of Various Banks - State-owned banks have increased their market share in total assets and loans to 50.2% and 52.8%, respectively, during the "14th Five-Year Plan," reflecting their enhanced role as a stabilizing force in the economy [19][22]. - Regional commercial banks have improved their market positions, particularly in economically strong provinces, while shareholding and rural commercial banks have faced challenges, with market shares declining [19][22]. 3. Characteristics of Corporate and Retail Banking - The report notes a growing trend of strong corporate lending and weaker retail lending, which has become a key factor in the competitive dynamics among different types of banks [19][22]. 4. Establishment of a Differentiated Development Ecosystem - The report emphasizes the establishment of a "dislocated development and differentiated operation" ecosystem, where larger banks dominate in volume but face challenges in pricing, while smaller banks focus on flexible service offerings to differentiate themselves [6][19]. 5. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes for 2026: 1. Asset expansion, targeting quality regional commercial banks such as Chongqing Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank [7]. 2. Real estate recovery, focusing on shareholding banks that are expected to recover sooner, such as Industrial Bank, Citic Bank, and China Merchants Bank [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights four key reasons supporting the optimistic outlook for bank valuation recovery: the end of capital outflows, historically low fund holdings in banks, high dividend yields, and stable performance expectations for 2026 [10][14][21] - The report emphasizes the strategy of "2026 bank α stronger than β," focusing on stock selection from the bottom up, as the significance of choosing quality stocks has increased in the current market environment [4][27] - The report identifies two major discrepancies in bank fundamentals: the relationship between interest rate cuts and profit declines, and the distinction between risk disposal and the burden on the banking system [27][54] Group 2 - The report indicates that since the second half of 2025, bank stocks have underperformed primarily due to capital market pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as capital outflows have ceased [8][13] - The report notes that the dividend yield for the banking sector has risen to 4.7%, making it attractive for long-term investors seeking stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [17][21] - The report predicts that the net interest margin for listed banks will stabilize in 2026, with a year-on-year decline expected to narrow to single digits, benefiting from effective risk management [22][25][66] Group 3 - The report outlines two main investment themes for 2026: the asset expansion theme, focusing on banks with strong credit resources and revenue elasticity, particularly city commercial banks, and the real estate improvement theme, which anticipates a reversal of difficulties for joint-stock banks as real estate policies stabilize [32][37][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of banks that have effectively reduced real estate exposure and strengthened their fundamentals, as these banks are likely to benefit from easing pressure on credit costs and achieving stable profit growth [47][48] - The report suggests that banks with a strong ability to manage credit risk and those that have proactively reduced exposure to real estate will be better positioned to recover and outperform their peers [46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating a transition towards stable profitability and high-quality development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on quality banks recovering towards a 1x PB valuation [7]. Core Insights - The banking landscape has undergone significant changes during the "14th Five-Year Plan," characterized by a trend towards the dominance of listed banks over non-listed banks, with listed banks showing improved asset quality and profitability metrics [6][8]. - The report highlights three major shifts in the banking sector: the increasing dominance of state-owned banks, the rapid development of city commercial banks, and the ongoing decline in market share for joint-stock and rural commercial banks [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated operations and regional focus for smaller banks to thrive in a competitive environment, suggesting that local banks should leverage their unique advantages to capture market potential [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Dominance of Listed Banks - Listed banks have seen a rise in market share for total assets, loans, and net profits, with total assets and loans reaching 81.2% and 79.9% respectively by Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery from previous declines during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [17][18]. - The net profit share of listed banks has increased to nearly 90%, indicating better operational efficiency compared to non-listed banks [17][18]. 2. Changing Landscape of Various Banks - State-owned banks have strengthened their market position, with total assets and loan market shares increasing to 50.2% and 52.8% respectively, while joint-stock banks have faced challenges, with their market shares declining [22][26]. - City commercial banks have benefited from regional development, with their market shares in total assets, loans, and net profits rising to 16.2%, 14.5%, and 12.1% respectively [22][24]. 3. Characteristics of Corporate and Retail Banking - The report notes a growing trend of strong corporate lending and weaker retail lending, which has become a key factor for the leading performance of state-owned and city commercial banks [6][22]. - The report also highlights the need for banks to balance pricing and efficiency, especially as large banks dominate key sectors while smaller banks focus on flexible service offerings [6][8]. 4. Establishment of a Differentiated Operating Ecosystem - The report discusses the establishment of a "dislocated development and differentiated operation" ecosystem, where large banks dominate in volume but face challenges in pricing, while smaller banks focus on niche markets [6][8]. - Wealth management and investment banking sectors are increasingly led by top joint-stock banks, which have surpassed state-owned banks in market share [6][8]. 5. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes for 2026: the expansion of asset portfolios in quality city commercial banks like Chongqing Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, and the recovery of joint-stock banks like Industrial Bank, CITIC Bank, and China Merchants Bank [7][8].

格隆汇3月16日｜法国兴业银行指出，由于近期的涨势停滞，美元兑一篮子货币的汇率出现下跌，不过 跌幅预计会有限。在美元指数于周五创下逾九个月来的最高点后，看多美元的仓位看起来已经过度了。 外汇市场正出现美元复苏的逆转态势。不过，很难看到欧元或英镑兑美元会有更持久的反弹。美元通常 会因能源价格上涨而受益，因为美国是石油净出口国，同时也会因投资者寻求避险资产的需求而受益。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The banking index has achieved excess returns amid a decline in market risk appetite, with a 1.5% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [2][13] - There is a notable inflow into dividend-related index funds, indicating a shift in institutional investment strategies [2][20] - The report continues to favor the valuation recovery of bank stocks, highlighting low PB-ROE valuations and improving performance trends [2][18] Summary by Sections Loan Growth and Leverage - In January-February, corporate loans increased significantly while household leverage continued to decrease, with a total of 5.61 trillion RMB in new loans, a year-on-year decrease of 530 billion RMB [11][43] - The growth rate of RMB loans fell to 6.0% by the end of February, aligning with market expectations [11][43] - Short-term household loans contracted by 359.6 billion RMB, reflecting weak consumer finance demand [12][43] Market Performance - The banking index outperformed the broader market indices, with a 1.5% increase compared to a 1.3% excess return over the Shanghai Composite and a -1.0% return on ChiNext [2][13] - The report recommends high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank and Jiangsu Bank [2][18] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued banks with high dividend yields and significant conversion space for convertible bonds, particularly highlighting Industrial Bank [34] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks is 4.19%, with H-shares yielding 5.36% [29][30] Trading Activity - There has been a decline in trading turnover and transaction volume for various types of bank stocks, indicating low trading activity levels [37][41] - The report anticipates an increase in attention towards bank stocks as valuation corrections and index fund impacts are gradually absorbed [37][41]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the financial impact of rising inflation, particularly due to the recent increase in oil prices, which is expected to have a more significant effect on the price system compared to previous instances, such as during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [21][22] - The current economic cycle is positioned differently than in 2022, with signs indicating a potential recovery in corporate inventory and an increase in long-term loans, suggesting a shift towards a demand cycle [21][22] - The report predicts that long-term bond rates will likely break through their upper resistance levels as nominal economic recovery continues, with structural monetary policy adjustments being a key focus for the central bank [3][23] Financial Implications - The report outlines three main financial implications: 1. Long-term bond rates are expected to rise, with the ten-year government bond yield likely to break its current range [3][23] 2. A decrease in market risk appetite may lead to a shift from liquidity-driven asset valuation to profit-driven valuation, potentially resulting in a challenging period for financial assets [3][23] 3. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may drive capital flows towards safer assets, including RMB-denominated assets, depending on the pace of financial infrastructure opening [3][23] Banking Sector Adjustments - The banking sector is advised to adjust its mindset regarding the interest rate down cycle, preparing for a scenario where interest rates and funding costs may no longer decline [4][24] - Large banks should focus on reducing the duration of loans and increasing the acquisition of settlement deposits, while smaller banks need to extend the duration of liabilities to mitigate potential impacts from cyclical shifts [4][24] Market Performance - During the observation period from March 9 to March 13, 2026, the banking sector overall increased by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market [19][56] - The report notes that the A-share banking sector showed a positive performance, while H-share banks lagged behind, indicating a divergence in market performance [19][56] Profit Forecasts - The report indicates that profit growth expectations for banks in 2025 remain largely unchanged, with minor adjustments noted for specific banks [20][56]