丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 川苏冀三省信贷开门红领跑 ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 9 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受地缘冲突等事件因素影响，权益市场波动率加大，部分投资者寻求防御避险，本周红利类资 产上涨，银行股取得超额收益。个股层面，去年以来业绩增速具备弹性的重庆银行大幅领涨， 相似逻辑的厦门银行涨幅居前，同时前期调整非常充分的成都银行、国有大行 A 股领涨，而受 全球市场风险偏好影响的 H 股外资行领跌。当前时点，市场风格存在分歧，而银行股经历半年 以上充分调整，PB-ROE 估值低、业绩趋势向好、资金面压力逐步消化，我们认为当前是年内 银行股的重要买点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 [Table_Summary2] 川苏冀三省 1 月信贷开门红增速领跑 2026 年 1 月全国信贷同比增速继续下行至 6.0%，我们判断信贷总量降速的趋势全年仍将持 续，因此区域分化、大省挑大梁依然是今年信贷投放的核心特征。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a defensive value amidst external uncertainties affecting the A-share market [2][5]. Core Insights - The "Two Sessions" have provided financial signals, focusing on monetary policy, financial risk prevention, and institutional reforms. The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, prioritizing stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][11]. - The report anticipates that the frequency of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will remain consistent with the previous year, with a lower probability of implementation in the first half of the year. The growth rate of social financing (社融) and M2 may fall below 8% [5][11]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be emphasized, with an expected net investment scale exceeding 540.5 billion in 2025, focusing on supporting domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6][11]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Dynamics - The report highlights the successful convening of the "Two Sessions" and the focus on monetary policy and financial risk prevention by the People's Bank of China [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline of 2.30% in the Wind All A Index, while the Shenwan banking sector increased by 1.64% [17]. Data Overview - The central bank's net withdrawal this week was 1.56 trillion, with a decrease in various interest rates, including the Shibor rates [4][25]. - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various banking stocks, including their dividend rates and price-to-earnings ratios [22]. Banking Sector Trends - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is stabilizing, suggesting that revenue challenges for commercial banks may be easing. It recommends focusing on city commercial banks in key development areas and national banks with lower non-performing asset pressures [11].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月08日 2026年03月07日 银行业 2026 年经营展望：择股篇 优于大市 政策底迈向业绩底，绩优股领衔价值重估 两轮典型银行行情核心驱动因素和主要增量资金：2016-2017 年，基本面拐 点向上驱动的戴维斯双击行情，定价权由 2016 年的万能险过渡到 2017 年的 公募/外资；2023-2025 年，银行业基本面持续下行，但化债大背景下，政策 守住了系统性风险，对公资产质量悲观预期修复，国有大行演变为确定性的 高股息"类债"资产，吸引了保险长线资金配置。同时，中央汇金大规模增 持沪深 300ETF 和上证 50ETF 等，释放了强烈的背书信号，为银行股提供了 极具韧性的估值底，与保险资金共振。 两轮险资主导行情表现差异很大，主要是险资属性以及会计准则的差异。 2016 年是股权分散、更具高 ROE 潜力的中小银行表现更好，2023-2025 年是稳健大行领涨。因为 2016 年以激进万能险为主导，在旧会计准则 （IAS 39）下更在意席位溢价和高 ROE 潜力，偏好当时股权分散且成长 性更好的中小银行。2023-2025 年险资以长线资金为主导，2023 年初开 ...

以下文章来源于兴业银行601166 ，作者兴业银行 兴业银行601166 . 在这里，遇见兴业，读懂兴业，共同兴业！ 兴业银行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一 业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴灌乡土沃野，助 力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动"土特产"蜕变为"大 产业"，为县域经济高质量发展注入澎湃动能。 封图：网络 秋日的山东莱西田间，收割机轰鸣穿梭在金色沃野，种植户捧着饱满的花生满脸笑意；福建晋江的 鞋企车间里，生产线高速运转，新上的设备开足马力赶制订单，"产销两旺"势头正劲......从东南沿 海到西北边疆，从田间地头到车间厂房，一幅"产业兴旺、民生富足、县域崛起"的时代画卷正徐 徐铺展。 郡县治，天下安。县域连接城市和乡村，是我国经济发展的基本单元。党的二十届四中全会提 出，"发展各具特色的县域经济"；中央经济工作会议提出，"推动县域经济高质量发展"。 金融是实体经济的血脉，在畅通县域产业循环、激活地方经济发展活力中发挥着重要作用。兴业银 行因地制宜，聚焦县域特色产业链，创新打造"一县一业一策"专属服务模式，引金融活水精准滴 灌乡土沃野，助力"一地一品"串珠成链、聚链成群，推动 ...

聚焦2026年银行业两大选股主线，重申看好银行 1、年初我们旗帜鲜明提出2026银行α优于β的核心观点，而银行α重点围绕两大主线： 1）【资产扩表主线：信贷资源=营收弹性】储备充足的低风险信贷项目、又深耕经济更好的重点区域的银行，向 下有韧性、向上有弹性（今年核心关注PPI趋势）聚焦优质区域城商行； 2）【地产改善主线：地产政策催化修复预期=股份行困境反转】过去两年股份行受地产压制最为明显，若下半年 核心城市房价企 聚焦2026年银行业两大选股主线，重申看好银行 1、年初我们旗帜鲜明提出2026银行α优于β的核心观点，而银行α重点围绕两大主线： 1）【资产扩表主线：信贷资源=营收弹性】储备充足的低风险信贷项目、又深耕经济更好的重点区域的银行，向 下有韧性、向上有弹性（今年核心关注PPI趋势）聚焦优质区域城商行； 2）【地产改善主线：地产政策催化修复预期=股份行困境反转】过去两年股份行受地产压制最为明显，若下半年 核心城市房价企稳、稳楼市信心增强，对股份行是直接利好尤其是近两年已更大力度处置地产风险、业绩更早筑 底的股份行。 退一步，板块股息率重回4.8%，险资优选"业绩稳定+高股息"的银行做配置，这点也不容忽 ...

策略对话银行-调整半年的银行股何时回归？20260304 Q&A 从策略视角看，当前红利资产（尤其银行）的配置价值主要体现在哪些因素上？ 从自上而下视角，红利资产与银行的配置价值主要来自资金端确定性、短期宏 观不确定性下的防御属性，以及红利内部比较优势三方面。第一，边际定价能 力更强的增量资金仍以社保、保险、养老金等长线资金为主。在国债收益率约 1 个点的环境下，负债端压力推动其持续追寻略高于债券的回报，权益成为重 要选择。测算显示，2026 年养老金与保险的权益仓位仍有上行空间；以保险 为例，2025 年过去三个季度权益仓位加仓接近 3 个点（从 12 点到 15 点）， 对应"加仓+净值增长"合计约 1.5 万亿，扣除后约 1 万亿上下。2026 年节 奏预计较 2025 年略慢，但仓位仍倾向继续提升，OCI 与绝对收益"打底仓" 需求仍将支撑传统红利与银行方向。第二，阶段性市场波动主要来自美伊冲突 不确定性，核心在霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续时间。若 1 周内解决，油价及部分大 宗阶段性高点或已出现，股市风险偏好与估值可能回升；若中性假设为 2~4 周 甚至 1 个月，油价中枢或维持高位，市场大概率处于高位波动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China shows "one addition and minor structural adjustments", reflecting the continuous deepening and normalization of macro - prudential management. The direction and intensity are within the market's expectations, which helps to stabilize expectations and make credit stratification clearer [4][16] - For newly included banks like Zheshang Bank, it reflects increased regulatory attention, which is generally positive. For banks with group downgrades like Industrial Bank, the impact is neutral as it eases capital constraints [4][16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview: Systemically Important Bank List - **Definition**: Systemically important banks represent their significance in the financial system and are required to have higher loss - absorption capabilities. They need to meet additional capital requirements, with higher importance corresponding to higher requirements. The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration regularly evaluate and update the list to prevent systemic risks [2][7][8] - **Evaluation Logic**: The evaluation combines quantitative assessment and qualitative judgment. There are 4 primary indicators and 13 secondary indicators. The score of an indicator is the product of market share and indicator weight. Banks with a score of 100 or above are included in the initial list and are divided into five groups, with higher scores corresponding to higher groups and higher additional capital requirements [2][9][10] - **Adjustment Overview**: From 2021 - 2026, the number of systemically important banks increased from 19 to 21, covering all state - owned banks, most joint - stock banks, and some leading city commercial banks. The list shows a "no - reduction" trend. There have been two group downgrades: Minsheng Bank in 2022 and Industrial Bank in 2026 [2][12] 3.2 Impact: Inclusion Benefits Banks' Market Positioning, and Group Downgrade Has a Neutral Impact - **For Zheshang Bank**: Its first inclusion in the list is beneficial for its market positioning. At the same time, due to the marginal increase in capital constraints and a low safety cushion, the demand for capital instrument issuance may increase. As of September 2025, its core - tier - one capital adequacy ratio was 8.40%, and the regulatory bottom - line requirement increased from 7.50% to 7.75%, leaving a safety cushion of only 0.65pct, the lowest among joint - stock banks. Considering the capital shortage, potential regulatory support, and the maturity of 25 billion yuan of perpetual bonds in 2026, the demand for capital instrument issuance is expected to rise [3][14] - **For Industrial Bank**: Its group downgrade from the third to the second group does not affect its systemic importance. The additional capital requirement decreased from 0.75% to 0.50%, and the capital constraint was marginally eased. As of September 2025, its core - tier - one capital adequacy ratio was 9.66%, with a safety cushion of 1.66pct from the regulatory bottom - line requirement. The impact is neutral as it helps coordinate asset investment and capital adequacy indicators [4][15] 3.3 Summary: Stable with Adjustments, Direction and Intensity within Market Expectations - **Industry Level**: The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China shows "one addition and minor structural adjustments". Along with clear constraints on additional capital and additional leverage ratios and the institutional improvement of the central bank's macro - prudential framework, it reflects the continuous deepening and normalization of macro - prudential management, which helps to stabilize expectations and make credit stratification clearer [16] - **Bank Level**: Compared with changes in group rankings, the marginal impact of inclusion is greater. Newly included banks (e.g., Zheshang Bank) are expected to improve trust among peers and investors. Banks with group downgrades (e.g., Industrial Bank) have reduced additional capital requirements and released marginal capital space [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report forecasts a social financing growth rate of 8.1% for February 2026, with a total social financing increment of 2.1 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. - It is expected that the total outstanding social financing will reach 451.1 trillion CNY by the end of February, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 0.07 percentage points [4][7]. - The report highlights that credit growth is anticipated to be lower year-on-year due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with corporate credit demand expected to remain flat and retail loans likely to decrease year-on-year [4][7]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Estimates - The estimated social financing stock for February 2026 is 451.1 trillion CNY, up from 449.1 trillion CNY in January 2026 and 417.3 trillion CNY in February 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [7]. - The report predicts a decrease in new RMB loans for February 2026, estimating an increment of 0.5 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. Credit and Bond Financing - The report anticipates a decrease in government and credit bond net financing for February, with government bonds expected to net finance 1.4 trillion CNY, down 0.3 trillion CNY year-on-year [4][7]. - The report also notes that the demand for bank bills is expected to remain strong, with a decrease of 1,000 billion CNY in discounted bank acceptance bills, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2,000 billion CNY [4][7]. Monetary Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of M2 growth, which is expected to remain high at around 9.0% in February, supported by strong government bond financing and improved corporate cash flow [4][7]. - M1 growth is projected to rise to approximately 5.1%, influenced by a low base effect and the reduced impact of deposit migration [4][7].

2025 年度我国系统重要性银行名单调整，新增浙商银行 近期，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局联合发布 2025 年度我国系 统重要性银行名单，本次认定 21 家国内系统重要性银行。 一、本期名单的核心变动 本次认定的 21 家银行涵盖国有商业银行 6 家、股份制商业银行 10 家、城 市商业银行 5 家，按系统重要性得分从低到高分为五组，核心变化集中于 两点：一是浙商银行首次被纳入名单，位列第一组；二是兴业银行由此前 的第三组调整至第二组，其余银行组别未发生变动。 二、调整的主要驱动因素 本次系统重要性银行名单调整严格依据《系统重要性银行评估办法》监管 框架，围绕参评银行的规模、关联度、可替代性及复杂性等核心维度开展 定量评估，并结合监管机构的专业判断进行综合认定。从驱动机制来看， 调整后的表内外资产余额在评估体系中权重较高，是核心评估指标之一， 因而资产规模增速的差异化表现，或为影响银行组别划分与位次变动的关 键驱动因素。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2026 03 03 年 月 日 银行 三、名单调整的行业影响 （一）附加资本要求边际变化 根据《系统重要性银行附加监管规定（试 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The 2025 list of systemically important banks in China has been adjusted, with the addition of Zhejiang Commercial Bank and a reclassification of Industrial Bank [2][4] - The adjustment is driven by a strict evaluation framework based on scale, interconnectedness, substitutability, and complexity, with asset balance being a key factor [3] - The adjustment will lead to marginal changes in additional capital requirements for banks, impacting their operational management and capital allocation [4][9] Summary by Sections Changes in the Current List - The new list includes 21 banks: 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks, categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance [2][13] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank is newly included in the first group, while Industrial Bank has moved from the third to the second group [2] Main Drivers of Adjustment - The adjustments are based on the "Systemically Important Bank Assessment Measures," focusing on quantitative evaluations of banks' scale and asset growth rates [3] Industry Impact - The adjustment introduces differentiated additional capital requirements, with the first group requiring 0.25% and the second group 0.5%, affecting banks' capital management strategies [4] - The changes are expected to enhance the operational stability and asset quality of listed banks, promoting better service to the real economy [5] Impact on Capital Markets and Investment - Inclusion in the list and group adjustments are beneficial for banks' creditors and depositors, enhancing debt security and repayment capabilities [9] - For equity investors, the overall impact is stable, with potential benefits from improved financing capabilities and reduced capital constraints for banks in lower groups [9]