重申保险板块攻守兼备属性，息差趋势企稳有望驱动银行业绩修复 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 15 日 行业周报 | 金融 金融行业周报（2026/03/15） 核心结论 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为-1.93%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 2.12pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金 融指数涨跌幅分别为-1.75%、-2.10%、-2.73%，分别跑输沪深 300 指数 1.94pct、2.28pct、2.92pct。2）本周银行（申万）涨跌幅为+1.39%，跑赢 沪深 300 指数 1.20pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行本周涨跌 幅分别为+0.55%、+1.98%、+1.02%、+2.83%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险 II（申万）-2.10%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.28pct。 受 AI 悲观叙事、地缘冲突扰动、投资者对保险投资端担忧情绪传导等因素 影响，今年以来保险板块呈显著调整态势。当前板块估值已回落至历史极低 水平，已进入高性价比配置区间。我们坚定认为，保险行业资产负债两端改 善的长期核心逻辑未发生根本变化，考虑情绪修复与基本面 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 降准降息预期走弱 ——银行资负跟踪 20260315 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-15 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 03/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38003646 | nijun@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 林虎 | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_ 相关 ...

2 月资金月报： 受季节因素影响，机构资金流出，散户资金流入较多 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 | 上市公司数 | 42 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 147,098.51 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 140,825.95 | 辑：定力和底线思维》2026-03-08 净息差保持平稳，净利润增速转正》 2026-02-22 工》2026-02-14 银行 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2026 年 03 月 13 日 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 市场资金：理财、公募规模稳步增长，北向资金持仓市值增加。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：邓美君 银行板块个股表现与资金流向：1）板块表现：2 月份银行板块录得下跌-0.55%，跑 输沪深 300 指数 0.64 个百分点，在 31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook on the industry's fundamentals [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, remaining stable month-on-month, with total new loans growing by 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong loan issuance [6]. - The total new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the same period in 2025, primarily due to robust loan issuance [6]. - Corporate short-term and medium-to-long-term loans showed strong growth, with short-term loans increasing by 600 billion yuan and medium-to-long-term loans by 890 billion yuan compared to February 2025 [6]. - The report highlights a trend of "deposit migration," where non-bank deposits grew by 26.13% year-on-year, indicating a shift in asset allocation from deposits to wealth management products [6]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The banking sector's performance over the last month shows a 2.1% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a 0.2% increase [3]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Several banks are highlighted with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E, all rated as "Buy": - Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH): Price 17.16, EPS 2.91 for 2026E [8] - Nanjing Bank (601009.SH): Price 11.18, EPS 1.94 for 2026E [8] - Shanghai Bank (601229.SH): Price 9.87, EPS 1.74 for 2026E [8] - Ningbo Bank (002142.SZ): Price 31.15, EPS 4.76 for 2026E [8] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398.SH): Price 7.20, EPS 1.03 for 2026E [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is positive, with a focus on high dividend low valuation state-owned banks and policy-driven specialty targets [4][5]. Core Insights - The report reveals the deep connection between macro leverage cycles and the differentiation in bank stock performance from 2005 to 2025, identifying five key sectors driving leverage: residents, non-local government financing vehicles, central government, local government, and urban investment [1][11]. - The pricing logic of bank stocks has evolved from growth/model premium to dividend/certainty premium, influenced by three major shifts in macro leverage [1][11]. - The current macro leverage cycle indicates a continuation of government leverage, a reduction in resident leverage, and a focus on high dividend low valuation state-owned banks as new leaders in the market [3][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Leverage Cycle: Underlying Logic of Bank Stock Differentiation - The macro leverage cycle from 2005 to 2025 shows distinct phases, with the first phase (2005-2007) characterized by low leverage and a gradual increase, primarily driven by the resident sector [13][14]. - The second phase (2008-2015) saw significant leverage from government and urban investment, with a notable increase in bank stock performance [14][42]. - The third phase (2016-2021) involved a simultaneous increase in resident leverage and a decrease in non-local government financing vehicles, leading to a focus on retail banks [15][16]. - The fourth phase (2022-2025) indicates a shift where the government becomes the main leverage driver, while residents and urban investment vehicles stabilize or reduce leverage [15][16]. Stock Selection Logic Based on Macro Leverage Cycle - The report establishes a three-dimensional stock selection system: identifying core leverage sectors at the macro level, focusing on fundamental strengths at the micro level, and dynamically adjusting portfolios based on leverage shifts [2][11]. - The recommended stock selection lines include high dividend low valuation state-owned banks, policy-driven specialty targets, and quality regional commercial banks benefiting from structural leverage in non-local enterprises [5][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning with the current leverage cycle, suggesting three main stock selection lines: high dividend low valuation state-owned banks, policy-oriented targets, and quality regional commercial banks [5][11].

法国兴业银行的利率策略师在一份报告中表示，源自中东战争的石油冲击与该行对2026年德国国债的看 跌观点一致。他们维持3.25%的年终收益率目标不变，并表示，"尽管高点可能会比预期的更早达到"。 他们补充说，期限溢价——即投资者因购买长期债券而非短期债券所寻求的额外收益率——正在继续回 升。在欧元区政府债券方面，如果净卖盘不加剧，这应会提供一些支撑。"最终，大宗商品市场和利率 波动的走势将决定方向。"根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，10年期德国国债收益率周四收于2.944%， 盘中稍早曾触及2.963%的近两年半高点。 ...

2026.03. 12 本文字数：2188，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 "南沙金融30条"出台近一年来，相关政策加快落地，金融机构也积极行动起来。 2025年5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会、国家外汇管理局、广东省政府联合印发《关于金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合 作的意见》（"南沙金融30条"），支持南沙打造立足湾区、协同港澳、面向世界的重大战略性平台。 此后，广州市各部门及金融监管部门驻粤机构快速联动，于去年8月发布了《关于贯彻落实金融支持广州南沙深化面向世界的粤港澳全面合作的意见实 施方案》，为政策落地提供了明确"施工图"。 目前，南沙正高标准建设对外开放的多层次体系，并已初步形成银行、期货、资管、保险、融资租赁等多元金融业态集聚发展的态势。尤其是银行业积 极布局南沙，第一财经了解到，部分银行还为此专门设立"跨境金融中心" 。 打造中国式现代化样板区 根据广州市统一核算结果，2025年南沙区实现地区生产总值2402.26亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长4.8%。规模以上工业总产值同比增长4.7%， 其中，"专精特新"企业表现突出，合计产值同比增长6.4%。 目前，南沙刚 ...

根据兴业银行股份有限公司（以下简称本公司）2024 年年度股东会关于发 行金融债券的决议，本公司香港分行在 50 亿美元中期票据计划项下，在境外完 成发行 8 亿美元债券，募集资金专项用于符合《兴业银行绿色、社会责任及可持 续发展债券框架（2024 年 6 月版）》资格的绿色资产项目。发行情况如下：债 券类型为美元计价的高级无抵押债券，规模为 8 亿美元，年利率为 SOFR+41BPS， 期限为 3 年。 上述债券自 2026 年 3 月 13 日起在香港联合交易所有限公司上市。 特此公告。 兴业银行股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 12 日 公告编号：临2026-009 A股代码：601166 A股简称：兴业银行 可转债代码：113052 可转债简称：兴业转债 兴业银行股份有限公司 关于香港分行在 50 亿美元中期票据计划项下 发行相关债券并上市的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the banking sector in China, particularly the performance of covered banks during the earnings season for 4Q25 and the outlook for 2026 [1][4][30]. Core Themes and Financial Projections - **Profitability Expectations**: Average Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) growth for covered banks in 4Q25 is expected to be 4%, with profit growth projected at 3% [1][6]. - **Revenue Growth**: Overall revenue growth for banks is anticipated to improve in 2026, although profit growth will show divergence among banks [1][30]. - **Stock Recommendations**: CMB is recommended as a stock with high dividends and high EPS growth, maintaining a Buy rating with revised target prices of Rmb 54.71/HK$ 53.44 for A/H shares [1][30]. Key Financial Metrics - **Net Interest Margin (NIM)**: Expected to stabilize around 1.35% in 2026/2027 after a slight decline from 1.39% in 2025. The average decline for covered banks is projected to narrow to -6/-6 basis points YoY in 4Q25/1Q26 [8][11][30]. - **Loan Growth**: Anticipated to remain stable at 8% YoY in 2026, with specific banks like CMB and PAB expected to see loan growth of 7% and 6% respectively [24][25][30]. Consumer Finance and Fee Income - **Consumer Finance Recovery**: Expected to support loan growth, with banks forecasting better retail loan growth in 2026 compared to 2025. However, the sluggish property market may keep retail loan growth under pressure in the short term [32][36]. - **Fee Income Growth**: Projected to be 16% YoY in 4Q25 and 7% YoY in 2026 for covered banks, driven by a recovery in capital market-related fee income [38][47]. Asset Quality and Provisions - **Retail NPL Ratios**: Retail Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratios are rising, but banks that have proactively managed retail risks may see a quicker recovery. For instance, PAB's retail NPL ratio has declined [53][57]. - **Mortgage Loans**: Considered high-quality assets with low default rates, although NPL ratios are on an upward trend. The focus will be on banks achieving positive mortgage growth despite weak property sales [54][61]. Investment Income and Revenue Sensitivity - **Investment Income**: Expected to show YoY negative growth in 4Q25 due to a high base effect, but a QoQ rebound is anticipated in 1Q26 driven by bond investments and slight interest rate declines [65][69]. - **Reduced Sensitivity**: The impact of investment income on bank revenue is expected to diminish, with forecasts indicating flat growth in 2026/27 [66][68]. Conclusion - The banking sector in China is poised for a mixed performance in 2026, with expectations of improved revenue growth but divergent profit growth among banks. Key areas of focus include consumer finance recovery, asset quality management, and the stabilization of NIM.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience amid increased market volatility due to geopolitical conflicts, with dividend assets rising and bank stocks achieving excess returns. Notably, Chongqing Bank and Xiamen Bank have led the gains, while H-shares of foreign banks have lagged. The current market conditions suggest that it is an important buying opportunity for bank stocks this year, especially after a prolonged adjustment period [2][8][18] - In January 2026, the national credit growth rate continued to decline to 6.0%, with significant regional disparities. Sichuan and Jiangsu provinces exhibited high loan growth rates of 9.9% and 9.3%, respectively, which are well above the national average. The trend indicates that large provinces are taking the lead in credit issuance [6][40] - Corporate loans in major provinces are growing at rates above 11%, with Jiangsu and Sichuan reaching 13.8% and 13.2%. This reflects the effectiveness of local governments in promoting new productive forces and increasing investment. Retail loans, however, show a contrasting trend with larger provinces experiencing declines while smaller provinces see growth [7][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index rose by 1.6% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.7% and 4.0%, respectively. The market is experiencing a divergence in style, with bank stocks showing low PB-ROE valuations and improving performance trends [8][18] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.23%, which is attractive compared to the 10-year government bond yield spread of 245 basis points. The average yield for H-shares has increased to 5.35%, with a discount rate of 21% compared to A-shares [9][26] Credit Growth Analysis - The credit growth in January 2026 indicates a continued downward trend, with significant contributions from Sichuan and Jiangsu provinces. The corporate loan growth reflects the ongoing transition to new economic drivers, while retail loan growth varies significantly across regions [40][41] - The market is witnessing a shift in funding styles, with bank-related index funds experiencing a net inflow of 400 million yuan after two weeks of outflows, indicating a potential change in investment strategy [20][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Nanjing Bank. It also suggests paying attention to low-valuation, high-dividend banks like Industrial Bank, which has significant potential for convertible bond conversion [18][31]