ETO Markets 市场洞察：威廉姆斯暗示降息，黄金却跌了？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a slight decline due to profit-taking by investors and a stronger US dollar supported by positive economic data, limiting upward movement in gold prices [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a revised annualized GDP growth rate of 3.3% for Q2, surpassing the initial estimate of 3.0% and market expectations of 3.1%, indicating economic resilience [3]. - Initial jobless claims fell to 229,000 for the week ending August 23, down from a revised 234,000, reinforcing stability in the labor market [3]. Interest Rate Expectations - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut may lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing support for the precious metal [4]. - The market is focused on the upcoming release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, with expectations of a 2.6% year-over-year increase in overall PCE and a 2.9% increase in core PCE [4]. Technical Analysis - Despite the recent price pullback, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with key technical indicators showing continued bullish momentum [5]. - The price is holding above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,279.45, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60.50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum [5]. - Key resistance is noted at the upper Bollinger Band of $3,425, while initial support is at the August 27 low of $3,373 [5]. Market Sentiment - The current market environment shows that gold prices are influenced by both US economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with a focus on the upcoming PCE data and the September FOMC meeting [7]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, suggesting that investors should adjust trading strategies based on key technical levels and macroeconomic data [7].