特朗普50%新关税生效，自己将引火上身！美联储三把手加入鸽派！

Group 1 - The Trump administration has imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, doubling the existing tariff to 50%, marking the highest level of tariffs on Indian goods [1] - The primary objective of this tariff increase is to pressure India into ceasing its imports of Russian crude oil, which India considers vital for its energy security [3] - Despite the high tariffs, India continues to pursue its energy import strategy, indicating that the costs of compliance may be less than the risks faced by the U.S. [3] Group 2 - India, as the world's third-largest crude oil importer, heavily relies on oil imports from Russia and the Middle East, with Russia accounting for 35% of India's total crude oil imports by 2024 [5] - Following the tariff implementation, trade between the U.S. and India has nearly stalled, significantly impacting labor-intensive industries such as textiles and jewelry [5] - The ongoing tariff conflict has exacerbated U.S.-India relations, increasing uncertainty about future cooperation [5] Group 3 - The tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, particularly regarding Trump's potential dismissal of Fed officials [7] - Former Fed Vice Chair warned that Trump's actions could undermine the Fed's independence, leading to higher inflation and decreased market confidence [9] - Current expectations suggest a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Fed, influenced by the prevailing dovish sentiment among several board members [11]