特朗普史诗级干预下，美联储还有一个加强独立性的方法

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is managing U.S. interest rates effectively despite political pressures, but there is room for improvement in its broader monetary policy framework [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve will consider a 25 basis point cut in short-term interest rates at the September policy meeting, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut, contingent on upcoming employment data [1]. - The Fed's current monetary policy is in a "restrictive range," and risks of a weakening labor market may emerge quickly, while inflation expectations remain stable [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed has reverted to a "symmetric average inflation targeting" approach, treating inflation above and below the target equally, aiming for maximum employment consistent with price stability [2]. - The adjustments restore the Fed's proactive ability to address inflation risks exceeding the 2% target and balance employment and price stability goals more equitably [2]. Group 3: Communication and Policy Implementation - The Fed needs to improve its communication regarding economic outlooks and potential responses, moving beyond marginal adjustments to include detailed staff forecasts with alternative scenarios [3]. - A cost-benefit framework is necessary for guiding the use of quantitative tightening tools, as the costs of the previous quantitative easing program exceeded $500 billion [2].