Ge Long Hui·2025-08-29 06:42Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Mengniu Dairy's management acknowledges that declining sales remain a major challenge for the company, although certain segments like fresh milk and cheese show resilience and growth [1] Financial Performance - Management expects a mid to high single-digit decline in annual revenue, while operating profit margin is anticipated to remain stable [1] - Due to falling product prices, profits are expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the goal is to expand operating profit margin by 30 to 50 basis points annually over the next three years [1] Shareholder Returns - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% compared to last year and plans an additional stock buyback program worth 1 billion [1] Investment Rating - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating for the group, reflecting the long-term profit improvement potential and capital allocation [1] - However, the firm has lowered its earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 10% to 16% due to weaker-than-expected liquid milk sales, resulting in a target price reduction from HKD 23.3 to HKD 21.1 [1]