刚宣布，降息200个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered its key policy interest rate by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut since April 2025, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth - The Central Bank forecasts a real GDP growth of 5.4% for Q2 2025, up from previous expectations, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025, compared to just 2.4% for 2023/2024 [1][2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. Inflation Data - The inflation rate for Q2 2025 has dropped to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, with monthly deflation observed in July 2025 [2]. - The Central Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, suggesting a downward trend in inflation expectations [2]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee will reassess the pace and extent of monetary easing based on inflation forecasts and economic data at each meeting [2]. - The target average inflation rates are set at 7% for Q4 2026 and 5% for Q4 2028, indicating a long-term strategy for inflation control [2]. Recent Rate Cuts - The Central Bank has previously cut rates by 225 basis points in April 2025 and 100 basis points in May 2025, marking a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy following a period of tightening [4][5]. - The tightening cycle began in March 2022, with rates raised from 8.25% to 27.25% to combat rising inflation and currency depreciation [4].