涨势透支？德国股市高估值引发盈利兑现担忧

Group 1 - The German stock market is currently at a historical high valuation, with the DAX index up 21% this year, and the expected P/E ratio approaching 16 times, exceeding the past decade's average of 13 times [1] - Analysts predict a 4% growth in earnings per share for DAX constituents by 2025, with a 14% profit growth expected next year, surpassing the S&P 500's projections [2] - The strong performance of the DAX index is primarily attributed to four major stocks: Rheinmetall, Siemens, Allianz, and Deutsche Bank, which collectively contributed nearly half of the index's gains [3] Group 2 - There is caution regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, as some leading stocks may have limited domestic revenue exposure, raising concerns about actual earnings meeting expectations [3] - The German government's €500 billion infrastructure fund, allocated over 12 years, presents uncertainties, as some funds may be used to fill state budget gaps rather than for new investments [4] - Over 80% of DAX constituents derive their revenue from overseas, making them vulnerable to global economic slowdowns, particularly in export-oriented sectors like the automotive industry [5]