债券市场遇到对手了！特朗普成为首个“免疫”总统？

Core Viewpoint - Rising bond yields exert significant political pressure, influencing leaders and their policies, as evidenced by recent events in the UK and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 3.8% to 4.2% over the past year, indicating a growing concern among investors regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The gap between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has reached its widest level since January 2022, signaling investor anxiety about long-term inflation threats and the erosion of Federal Reserve independence [4] - Current bond yields remain below the highs reached after Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, suggesting a more orderly increase despite rising long-term yields [5] Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's attempts to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, including threats to dismiss board members, raise concerns about potential political capture of the institution [2][3] - If Trump succeeds in weakening the Federal Reserve's independence, it could lead to higher expected inflation, impacting various loan rates and increasing government costs [3] - The political risks associated with rising long-term borrowing costs could adversely affect Trump's voter base, particularly as mortgage rates are linked to long-term bonds [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Investors are increasingly worried about the politicalization of the Federal Reserve, with concerns that cheap funding could fuel future inflation [3] - The market's current calmness may be attributed to the recent increase in government revenue from tariffs, which has alleviated fears regarding the fiscal situation [5][6] - The outcome of the legal case involving Federal Reserve board member Cook could significantly impact market stability and the future of the Federal Reserve's independence [6]