中金 ：中美流动性共振的窗口期

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's unexpected dovish shift suggests a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations for a rate cut probability rising to 86% [1][2] - Powell's comments indicate a preference for stabilizing growth over controlling inflation, which may reduce recession risks but increase stagflation risks [4] - The expectation is that U.S. inflation has reached an upward turning point, with the upward cycle likely to last nearly a year [4][5] Group 2 - In the next 1-3 months, investors may struggle to determine the duration and magnitude of inflation's rise, as the Fed could interpret it as a temporary phenomenon [7] - Historical data shows that during periods of "rising inflation + declining growth," the dollar typically depreciates, gold prices rise, and U.S. Treasury yields decline, while stock performance is mixed [8][9] - The current liquidity environment in the U.S. remains ample, with bank reserves significantly higher than during the 2019 liquidity crisis [14][15] Group 3 - China's fiscal policies have led to improved macro liquidity, with M1 and M2 growth rates turning upward, indicating a shift in liquidity towards the stock market [18][20] - The government's proactive fiscal measures have not only enhanced liquidity but also reversed pessimistic market expectations, reducing stock market downside risks [22] - The correlation between stocks and bonds in China has turned negative, suggesting a "stock-bond seesaw" effect rather than simultaneous bullish trends [27][31] Group 4 - The synchronized liquidity easing in both the U.S. and China may create a favorable macro environment for various asset classes, including stocks and gold [33] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this liquidity easing, as rising inflation in the U.S. could disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting plans [36] - The current market environment presents both risks and opportunities, with potential volatility expected around key economic data releases in early September [39] Group 5 - Recommendations include overweighting A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, while maintaining a neutral position on U.S. bonds and adjusting U.S. stocks from underweight to neutral [40][42] - The valuation of Chinese stocks, particularly the CSI 300 index, is close to historical averages, suggesting potential for upward movement [40] - The current environment favors gold, with expectations that it remains in the early stages of a bull market despite recent volatility [48][49]