国信证券-浙江自然-605080-二季度关税扰动影响发货节奏，产品结构变化致毛利率下滑

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a revenue growth of 14% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but faced a decline in gross margin due to changes in product structure and an increase in lower-margin new product categories [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 14.2% to 690 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 44.5% to 146 million yuan [1] - The gross margin decreased by 2.1% year-on-year to 35.1%, primarily due to changes in product structure and an increase in overseas production capacity [1] - The operating profit margin increased by 4.3% to 24.5%, and the net profit margin attributable to shareholders rose by 4.5% to 21.2% [1] - In the second quarter, revenue growth slowed to 0.7% year-on-year, totaling 329 million yuan, with net profit declining by 20.1% [2] - The gross margin in the second quarter fell by 5.1% year-on-year to 31.1% due to product structure changes and deferred revenue [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Orders returned to normal in the third quarter, with previously delayed orders completed [3] - The company is expanding its market presence by deepening cooperation in the new energy vehicle market and developing new product lines, including inflatable mattresses for automotive camping [3] - The company is also focusing on expanding its water sports products and insulated bags, with production primarily in Vietnam and Cambodia [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates gradual recovery in revenue growth in the second half of the year as inventory issues among downstream brands are resolved [2][3] - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 250 million, 310 million, and 380 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 34.2%, 26.2%, and 22.1% respectively [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 28.1-31.6 yuan, reflecting an increase in profit forecasts and maintaining an "outperform" rating [4]