中国外贸顺差创新高，美国逆差在减少，都是赢家！关税战中，受伤的究竟是谁呢？

Group 1 - The core observation is that both China and the United States appear to be winners in the current trade landscape, at least in a temporary sense, with China achieving record-high export figures and a significant trade surplus [1][3] - China's total export value for the first seven months of the year reached $213.036 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, the highest level for the same period in history [1] - The trade surplus for China in the same timeframe reached $683.51 billion, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 30%, indicating a strong performance in external trade [3] Group 2 - The United States also reported positive trade figures, with exports amounting to $179.865 billion in June, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, while imports slightly decreased by 0.1% [3] - The U.S. trade deficit in June 2025 fell to $92.876 billion, a reduction of 5.7% year-on-year, attributed to high tariffs suppressing imports and increased energy exports [3][9] - In contrast, countries like Germany and Japan are experiencing trade challenges, with Germany's trade surplus declining by 21.4% in the first half of the year due to higher import growth compared to exports [4][6] Group 3 - Emerging economies such as Vietnam and India are facing increased trade deficits, with Vietnam's surplus dropping by 37.2% and India's deficit rising by 11.8% in the first seven months [10] - The trade war has led to higher import costs for these countries, which are heavily reliant on Chinese intermediate goods, thus impacting their export performance [10] - Developed economies with weak domestic demand, like the UK and France, are also seeing their trade deficits widen due to high energy prices and increased costs of imported goods [10] Group 4 - The overall impact of the trade war is distorting global resource allocation, raising transaction costs, and suppressing global economic growth potential, suggesting that the global trade landscape may be shrinking [11]