美联储偏爱的通胀指标小幅上涨，交易员继续押注9月降息

Core Insights - The July PCE inflation rate rose slightly, indicating the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy [1] - The core PCE inflation rate reached 2.9%, the highest level since February, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures [1][3] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% in July, despite rising prices, showing strong momentum in the economy [3] Inflation Data - The PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with forecasts [1][3] - Service prices have increased, raising concerns about further inflation [3] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit surged by 22.1% in July, reaching $103.6 billion, indicating potential economic headwinds for Q3 [5] - Imports increased by $18.6 billion to $281.5 billion, while exports fell by $1 billion to $178 billion [5] - The previous quarter's trade deficit had significantly contributed to GDP growth, but the current trend suggests a reversal [5] Economic Growth Projections - The Atlanta Fed projects a 2.2% annualized growth rate for the U.S. GDP in Q3 [6]