TKGF(SH:601233) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-29 13:20Core Viewpoint - Company reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenging market conditions [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 441.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 10.54 billion yuan, up 16.72% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) was 0.46 yuan, an increase of 2.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, operating revenue was 247.38 billion yuan, down 8.73% year-on-year but up 27.38% quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Dynamics - The international oil price showed a downward trend in H1 2025, with the average Brent price at 71 USD/barrel, down 15% year-on-year [2] - The average prices of key raw materials PX, MEG, and PTA changed by -18.92%, +0.71%, and -18.06% respectively [2] - The company’s main products POY, FDY, and DTY saw price declines of -9.99%, -15.90%, and -9.07% respectively, but the overall price drop was less than that of raw materials, improving profitability per ton [2] Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side is expected to improve, with approximately 130,000 tons of new filament capacity expected in H2 2025, predominantly from industry leaders [3] - The demand side showed a moderate recovery, with a 2.1% year-on-year increase in per capita clothing consumption and a 3.1% increase in retail sales of clothing and textiles [3] - The textile industry’s operating rate is gradually expanding, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating a return of demand vitality [3] Strategic Developments - The company made a strategic breakthrough in the coal sector by acquiring a coal mine in Turpan with a reserve of 500 million tons, enhancing its resource base [4] - This coal resource will support the company’s internal consumption and facilitate the production of chemical raw materials, improving self-sufficiency in polyester production [4] - The company aims to integrate its oil, coal, and gas supply chains, further enhancing its industry chain completeness [4] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 21.19 billion, 30.59 billion, and 34.97 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 76.3%, 44.3%, and 14.3% respectively [4] - The projected EPS for the same period is 0.88, 1.27, and 1.45 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.36, 11.34, and 9.92 times [4]