7月核心PCE符合预期！美联储“紧盯”的通胀指标定调，9月降息稳了？

Core Insights - The July Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. rose to 2.9% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - The overall PCE index, including food and energy, increased by 2.6% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, also meeting expectations [1] - Personal income in July increased by $112.3 billion, a growth of 0.4%, while personal consumption expenditures rose by $108.9 billion, a growth of 0.5%, both in line with forecasts [3] Market Expectations - The July PCE report did not alter market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [6][7] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist noted that the Fed has opened the door for rate cuts, but the extent will depend on the labor market's performance relative to inflation [6] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for a 25 basis point cut in September, citing concerns over worsening market conditions and the need for proactive measures [8]