旺季不旺！猪价低位小幅上涨，年内上升空间有限

Core Viewpoint - The pork prices in China are experiencing a prolonged period of low levels despite seasonal expectations for an increase, with recent government interventions having limited impact on price recovery [2][4]. Price Trends - As of August 29, the average pork price in wholesale markets was 19.94 yuan per kilogram, showing a slight increase from 19.82 yuan per kilogram the previous day [2]. - The pork prices at Xinfadi market were reported at 19 to 23 yuan per kilogram for pork belly and 15.8 to 17 yuan per kilogram for whole pigs, reflecting a significant decline of 22.36% compared to the average price of 20.35 yuan per kilogram from the previous year [4]. - The overall trend indicates that pork prices have fluctuated but remain low, with a notable drop from 16.57 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of January to a low of 14.58 yuan per kilogram in mid-June [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The northern farming sector is holding back on sales to maintain prices, while the southern regions are experiencing a decline in prices, leading to a disparity in the national market [2]. - Factors such as school holidays and high temperatures are negatively impacting demand, contributing to an oversupply situation [2][8]. - Predictions suggest that the fourth quarter will see ample supply, limiting the potential for significant price increases, with only minor upward adjustments expected [2][6]. Government Interventions - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans for central frozen pork reserves to stabilize market expectations and ensure reasonable returns for farmers [7]. - Recent policies have been implemented to control production, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing the weight of pigs at slaughter [8][9]. Industry Outlook - The pork industry is expected to undergo structural adjustments, with a focus on sustainable development and the promotion of medium-sized family farms [10]. - The industry is moving towards a balanced development model, with leading enterprises playing a crucial role in capacity regulation and market stabilization [10].